#240 - Project Glasswing, Claude Mythos, GLM-5.1, emotion concepts

2026-04-16 07:00:00 • 1:44:30

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Hello and welcome to our last week in AI podcast where you can yet chat about what's going

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on with AI as usual and receps will be will summarize and discuss some of last week's

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most interesting AI news.

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Also some of the previous last weeks and news we unfortunately did skip another week.

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This time it was my fault.

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It was my birthday last week and I was traveling.

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So I decided to be lazy and not do a podcast.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

3:41

Well, you know, it happens.

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People have birthdays and sometimes you celebrate them.

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But your God list is always healing.

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I think but yeah, 30 free is a big age.

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Yeah, it's treacherous.

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So it's not every year you hit the same two digits in your.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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I am as always one of your coasts, Andrew Karenkov.

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I studied AI grad school and now work at the AI startup Astrocade and I'm your other

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regular goes, Jeremy Harris.

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Yeah.

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Glad to see AI, AI national security, all that good stuff.

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Man there is so, so much.

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It's so, so much.

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You know, sometimes we miss a week and we're like, ah, you know what?

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It's not that bad because things haven't gone insane.

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We miss a really big week and then the week after was really big.

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And so now, man, we got our work cut out this week.

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I don't even know how to begin with this one.

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But it's big in a kind of different way.

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We had a year where we're a lot of, you know, model launches and AI progress and it hasn't

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been that kind of week.

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It's been more of a bunch of stories of policy and business and kind of these more inside

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baseball AI things, I guess you could say.

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So if you're into that sort of news, this will be a pre dense episode, perhaps.

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So we'll go ahead and jump straight in in tools and apps and be a starting with a story

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that just broke yesterday on fronk is launching project glass swing, a cybersecurity initiative

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partnering of major companies, including a whole bunch of names.

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And this is backed by project mythos, which is the tool side of it.

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So they have this cloud mythos preview, notably not cloud opus.

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They decided to give a new name to this cloud model, which we haven't done in forever.

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The gist is this model appears to be so good that they are not launching it to any sort

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of free use kind of place.

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It's so good that it's able to get as what are called zero day vulnerabilities, meaning

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that these are undisclosed unknown vulnerabilities in software.

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And if you were to me shit on the world, this would be a hacking machine that would like

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destroy software.

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So they have a bunch of benchmarks.

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As you might expect, it does better just all around by pretty large margins against

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against opus for six on reasoning, science coding, et cetera, et cetera.

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But the one they highlight is the cybersecurity angle where for instance in Firefox, they

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have some of the region showing their ability to find and exploit different potential vulnerabilities.

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So already was fairly capable and we know this from before also GP5 is already somewhat

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capable, but mythos just blows it out of the water.

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So in this specific evaluation that for all of the did opus for six was able to find finding

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something that might be bad in 14% of trials versus mythos in 72% of trials was able to successfully

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exploit something.

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And beyond that in 80, like 83, 84% was able to exploit or find a vulnerability.

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So massive, massive leap in terms of what it's capable of, presumably enabled by just better

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agent execution, not necessarily just raw intelligence of a part of it.

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But as we know these companies are post-training more and more for agentic capabilities.

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They have a ton of data from cloud code and other sources of real world software engineering.

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So it seems to be at the point at these anthropic things where you can't just release it or

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hackers will have a field day.

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And so they have this cooperative program, I suppose, to initially at least only provide

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it to partners to try and avoid this kind of hacking nightmare.

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Yeah, and the the exploit that it did find by the way, I mean, this doesn't seem to be a matter

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of opinion.

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It is just they found these critical exploits across every browser across every operating system.

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Like these are ways you can take over people's people's programs and gain higher level access

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credentials and do all the things that you don't want people to be able to do in a fully

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automated way.

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They emphasize that like fully automated.

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This is not, you know, a case where you have a human steering at intermediate stages.

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As we've seen in the past with some of these frameworks.

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It is fully autonomous.

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This is by the way, so because of the cyber capabilities, you might be tempted to think,

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oh, well, surely this is a sort of like code fine tune model.

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Like really, this is a specialist model.

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It is not right.

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So anthropic is very explicit.

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It is a general purpose model.

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That's why we're seeing capabilities increase across the spectrum of seaburn capabilities,

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10 bioreological nuclear in addition to cyber.

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So there's a whole bunch of stuff here.

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Really, when you go through their exhaustive like 250 page report that, I mean, it's pretty,

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it's pretty remarkable.

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I will say what we don't have here is details about the agentic orchestration framework,

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the model architecture behind this number of parameters.

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There's this rumor going around that it could be, you know, a 10 trillion parameter model,

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all the stuff.

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But we haven't actually had that confirmed.

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I saw some, some weird tweet that I think Gary Tan retweeted this tweet on X that was

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talking about a $10 billion compute budget.

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I haven't seen that actually validated it anywhere.

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So like there's a lot of rumor mill stuff going on here.

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So maybe be careful with what you consume on this.

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Though I will say $10 billion might be slightly ahead of trend for where we are right now,

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but not by that much, not by that much, but by Dario's own admission or statements,

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you know, just last year.

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So that wouldn't be shocking, but still we haven't had that confirmed.

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We may well be in the billion dollar plus pre training and training budget to territory

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now though.

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So yeah, on of these benchmarks, right?

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And we will hit the cyber stuff we have to in the autonomy things, but just to start

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with like virology and biology benchmarks, one of the key ones that they use is this

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virology protocol uplift trial.

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Basically, you take a bunch of PhD level biologists who don't specifically have expertise in bioweapons

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and you say, Hey, you have 16 hours to make an end and virus recovery protocol.

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Basically make this this virus replicate it or get your hands on it.

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And then they're going to use this complicated rubric to grade it.

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And then the key metric they track there is in the final result, how many critical mistakes

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were made that would have any one of them would have prevented you from successfully recovering

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the virus, right?

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So if you get down to zero, that means actually you were able to fully recover the virus

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and that's really, really bad.

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And inthropic internally treats anything below 1.8 of these so called critical failures

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as this key capability threshold that matters for their own internal protocols.

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So for context, if you have a bunch of PhD level biologists using only the internet, they

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hit on average 5.6 critical failures trying to get all the way through with assistance from

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quad opus 4.6.

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You hit 6.6 with quad mythos, you get 4.3.

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And then the best single mythos preview protocol that was produced, so the best run out of

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all the runs on average, they're hitting 4.3 mistakes, but the best run hit two, which

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was basically the best they've ever seen.

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So we're still not cracking all the way through obviously, but for a fully automated

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system, you're literally just two mistakes away from being able to recover a freaking

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bio weapon like that, that's, you know, that's a hell of a thing.

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A whole bunch of other results in that direction, but fundamentally that is the story on biology.

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You're not going to see any particular smoking gun that says this thing is a bio weapon or

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a bio weapon generation model and we should all freak out, but it is very concerningly

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on trend, let's say.

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Moving on to the loss of control side, now we start to shade into the cyber piece.

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There's a story.

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So Sam Bowman from Anthropic told the story of being, I guess he was eating lunch or something

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in the park and he gets a message from his agent saying basically, hey, just let you know,

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I did X, Y and Z and he's like, wait, that's that agent's not supposed to have internet

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access and sure enough, it had cracked out of its box, so to speak, and use the multi-step

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exploit to gain broad internet access and basically get in touch with them.

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So you're actually saying, I mean, this is an example of a low stakes loss of control

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situation that is fully organic.

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Like this way it was not asked to do this.

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This was like truly in the wild.

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And so quite remarkable, a whole bunch of cases, by the way, of these models trying to

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cover their tracks, they highlight three documented instances of that happening.

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It's worth noting, this is like one 100,000th of the interactions that they actually go through

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here or less than that.

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But still three of these incidents were like in one case, the model accidentally gets

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this prohibited answer using a technique that it wasn't allowed to use and then it went,

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oh, shit, I got to mature my submitted answer is not to accurate because otherwise I'm

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going to be detected, right?

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So a whole bunch of cases like that where we sort of see a strategic manipulation and

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avoiding suspicion.

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And by the way, when you actually use SAE, so spars auto encoders and other interpretability

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techniques to look at the activation patterns in the model when that's happening, what they

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find is sure enough, the activation patterns show the model kind of firing for SAE features

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associated with concealment and strategic manipulation and avoiding suspicion, deception

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and so on.

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So that suggests the models aware actually that those actions were deceptive, even when

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it's outputs kind of left things a little ambiguous.

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So there's a whole bunch of stuff.

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You know, you can go on and on.

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This is a very, very rich document.

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But the fundamental here is, in a sense, we've crossed the Rubicon.

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I mean, there is a like a wild set of very impressive cyber capabilities, offensive cyber

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capabilities in particular, the offensive piece here is crucial, especially given that

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inthropic, really has been cut out of access to the Department of War through this.

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Well, I mean, there's an injunction now that's reversed that, but there's a friction

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with the Department of War, which I think is starting to look like terrible judgment

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on behalf of the administration.

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I mean, this is a, if this is correct, directionally, then inthropic is sitting on the single

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best offensive cyber weapon, autonomous offensive cyber weapon ever devised in human history.

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And they may build and compound on that advantage.

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If the administration is going to be positioning itself adversarially with respect to this

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an American company, damn, I mean, that's a, that's a really interesting position for

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them to be in and I don't know that it's a great look.

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Yeah.

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So a lot to say on this, I click now on what do we do know about the model itself, which

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is very little aside from benchmarks, they do say that it's going to be about five times

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as expensive as the current opus release.

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So way, like $25 per million token input, $125 per million token output, very expensive.

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I think the most expensive model you can use out there.

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So that does hint at a much larger model than opus or sonnet.

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Other things that we're noting here, they in the in the post actually save at 99% of

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the vulnerabilities found were not patched.

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So they just can't actually tell us what they are because they are currently being patched.

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So they only have a couple of examples.

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One of them, a couple of them are older patches or older vulnerabilities.

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So as you might expect, a lot of these vulnerabilities just have been there for a while and

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just now being discovered.

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And it reminds me actually I saw a post on Twitter from one of them, a Tainers of Linux

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or something like Linux saying that they've started seeing more and more kind of real,

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substantive issues come in.

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And in some ways, it could be good because we are actually going to go through and find all

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the vulnerabilities that just have been there hidden in plain sight.

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And perhaps as an attacker, you could already use opus or something

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with much more sophisticated harness to find these.

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They do detail a little bit how they set up this exercise.

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They have this harness that they have discussed before.

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And they have a little container that they launch and they give it a very

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curt, like one paragraph instruction to just find vulnerabilities.

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So they don't limit it or give it guard rules or whatever.

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They just like to go wild and try and hack this.

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And so it's interesting to think through like when will they be able to make the call

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to release this more widely?

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Are they going to have to right now they have this trusted partner research review

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where they're working with Vidya and Cisco and all these other big companies?

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Will that be how access to this level of model be used from now on?

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Where you have to be like applying and getting permission to get access to a model VNAPI?

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That is given the level of certification here as you said, not just on the software side,

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but also on the biocide.

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Like this is a new realm of capabilities where the safety side is getting very real.

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And the kinds of tactics necessary, monitoring may not be sufficient anymore.

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So very interesting development kind of for the history of AI.

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And I wouldn't expect this to go widely available for, you know,

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presumably months given the findings they have disclosed.

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Yeah, the big question at your point, it's also a new development in the history of cyber security,

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right? Everything is AI as AI is the world.

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Once it was set of software now it's being set of AI and I think rightly so.

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In this case, there's this big question we're going to have to answer for ourselves

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as civilization.

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And that has to do with the offense defense balance in cyber, right?

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Is it the case that a more powerful model, just in general, more powerfully AI models being

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broadly available? Does that lead to a disproportionate advantage for cyber attackers or for

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cyber defenders? And for a really long time, the argument was that you really couldn't know.

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And this is a, I remember having a lot of like kind of half-drunk arguments with a lot of people

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about this three, four, five years ago. I think it's largely unchanged from what it was back then.

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I just think the attack surface is so big.

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One way you can think of this is it's compute on compute warfare, right? So you have a certain

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amount of inference compute that you can afford to spend perusing your code base and securing it

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as well as you can. An attacker has a certain amount of compute they can afford to peruse your

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code base or whatever external surfaces they can access to find vulnerabilities. There's going to be

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very roughly, and this is going to be wrong in a whole bunch of, you know, specific ways, but very

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roughly you're trading off differently leveraged pots of compute and, you know, maybe you have a two to

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one leverage advantage or whatever, but ultimately if you're defending, you have a huge attack surface.

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And if you're attacking, you can kind of march divided and fight concentrated, like you can

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constrict all your efforts on just like one tiny component that, you know, maybe the defender has

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not been able to invest as much inference time it computed into securing. So I don't know, but

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this is certainly one way this could go. A way anthropic is trying to help the defensive side here

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is, as you say, by delaying the broader release of this tool. So hopefully people are going to run

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around and patch as much as they can. This is part of the challenge, right? It's like, what does it

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actually mean for anthropic to be holding on to this model? Who actually has access to it? We

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argued in that report like a year or a year and a half ago that it's a leaky bucket situation for

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whole host of reasons, you know, if that remains true, then you can do the math. I mean, it may

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well be the case that this model has in some sense proliferated, or it may not, but anyway, all kinds

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of considerations in the mix here. This is, I think the most important story of the last two weeks,

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and it just dropped into our lap yesterday. I want to say yesterday.

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Well, ironically, actually, like two weeks ago, the existence of this model on different projects,

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under the term mythos was leaked. So the blog posts on anthropic websites were accidentally

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left kind of publicly accessible via some sort of caching thing. So if I was even to hack,

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it was like basically someone messed up a little bit, and if you were digging around, you could find

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these draft blog posts that alluded to mythos described it as they advanced. Also, there was

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something about an AM model called Capibara. Unclear favor, like deciding between mythos and

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Capibara. Either way, these are described as kind of the next step beyond opus, which are bigger.

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Another interesting angle of this is we haven't seen bigger models that we have been aware of for a while.

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The last time was GPT. I forget what was the massive model that openly, I think 4.5, they launched

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it and they kind of killed it. They, because it was a very, they expensive model. I believe it was

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very charging $125 or something like that. At the time, people basically were thinking,

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this is the 10 billion parameter model, whatever, it was sort of positioned as, oh, this is so smart,

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it has this flavor of being smart. But in practice, it didn't seem like it was capable of much more

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than at the time smaller models, like 1 billion, 2 billion parameter models. So this is a return

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seemingly to being able to scale up a parameter count effectively. And I'm sure it's driven by

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many things, including additional data from Cloud Code and V-Sings that aren't searchable via the web.

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And beyond that, also the progress in reinforcement learning that we've been seeing.

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Alrighty, well, moving on to let's say lower impact news. Next up, you've got Google and they have

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an update to Gemini Live, they're releasing Gemini 3.1 Flash Live, which is their audio and voice

21:43

model. So this allows you to talk to AI. It's kind of a real-time chat. And it's a pretty big jump

21:52

over the predecessor, which was 2.5 Flash native audio. This has low latency, better recognition of

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speech, et cetera, et cetera. It has over 90 languages supported for real-time, multi-modal

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conversation. And this is notable, I think, because compared to just LLMs, the ability to do this

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kind of real-time, conversational AI is not something where you have as many options to go with.

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So if you want to build a chatbot where you can talk to it, that's harder for you when it is

22:27

for OpenAI or Google. With a very powerful API for this, we could see more players out there

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building out this interface of voice into AI, which has seemed to become more of a norm.

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I still don't do it, but my impression is talking to AI is going to become more and more normal.

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And this will be one of the drivers of it, like having an easy way to build that for whatever

22:56

application you have in mind. Yeah, it's also one of the big structural

23:01

advantages that Google has is they've kind of maintained their lead on multi-modality.

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I mean, alongside OpenAI, this is really one of the areas that Google started to differentiate

23:10

itself. The starting is far back as, oh God, what was it got it, right? Like, multi-modality has

23:15

been their big play, this idea of positive transfer. And so not surprising that they're at the

23:20

gate leading yet again on especially the API side of things that is going to be, if you're going to

23:25

build using these modalities, like this is looking like a pretty strong default option right now.

23:30

So yeah, we're really interesting move and we'll see if they can maintain that lead too.

23:35

Because other labs will be pushing that direction. At a certain point, you're going to see a

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land grab and everybody's bleeding into each other's domains. Next up, another sort of low

23:44

impact story on FropPick has announced that cloud code subscribers will need to pay extra for

23:49

OpenClaw usage. This is kind of in line with hosted developments around access to a

23:57

cloud code. I believe earlier, we were also other restrictions on sort of harness access.

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So just as if you're paying for a subscription access of like $20 per month, $200 per month,

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it used to be that you could use that to power up a non-cloud code application like OpenClaw.

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And now that is not allowed. You can still use cloud. It's just that you need to pay for the API

24:25

that charges you per token instead of having a subscription price that very clearly you can

24:32

run up a bill way beyond what you're paying for $200 per month. You can easily burn through thousands

24:39

of dollars. And yeah, there's been again, a host of like announcements similar to this where

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FropPick is tightening up restrictions. I expect because they've seen a massive influx of users.

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And now they actually need to start worrying about burning cash, especially with things like

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OpenClaw where it's like 24, 7 agents that are supposed to be just burning through tokens.

25:05

Not stop. Yeah. You know, some people are a bit peeved at on FropPick sort of changing things up

25:11

and not having a clear policy around all this. But it does indicate where we are,

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the free launch that many of us have been enjoying in terms of being subsidized effectively

25:22

to use AI for cheaper is maybe not going to be sticking around too much longer.

25:29

Yeah. I mean, this is like a completely unsustainable all you can eat buffet, right? Like

25:34

this could not possibly last. And I think in Theroppyc, you know, or in the awkward position where

25:38

they have to walk this back, yes, look, it's also the case that there's a timing issue here where

25:43

OpenClaw's creator, right? Peter Steinberger just joined OpenAI. And that kind of makes OpenClaw

25:50

an open source project that's backed by direct competitor. And well, you know, in that context,

25:55

are you really going to maintain what is effectively a subsidy for OpenClaw usage?

26:00

Maybe, maybe you won't. I mean, like, you know, I'd be surprised if that were to continue

26:04

independent of just this like free lunch or not free lunch. But like all you can eat buffet

26:09

economic issue, it just does not work when you have such a disparity in usage, right? You got some

26:14

people who are just going to use it for, you know, anyway, more, much more lightweight stuff.

26:18

And then your power users could just bleed you dry, right? So in that world where you have a long

26:24

tail distribution of usage, you just can't go with a one size fits all approach. And that's

26:29

what Anthropics learning. They're being very open about it. Like, it seems to their credit like a

26:33

very transparent move that they're pulling. But the reason is very believable, but it's going to

26:38

lead to frustrated developers. No question. And then that's the cost of doing business.

26:41

And I think this actually is like pretty easily defendable. The more frustrating thing, which

26:46

we, there's no like new story attached to it. But if you're following it, the usage limits for

26:54

different subcurefantiers have been sort of fluctuating. So developers have been seeing reporting

27:00

that they use up where usage much quicker. They have been announcements from the team that they're

27:05

tightening up usage bounds for like peak times, et cetera. It's maybe clear that Anthropics is

27:11

under heavy compute load. There are in for seems to be struggling. And it's causing frustration.

27:18

And they're having to like pull these things of actually tending up usage bounds, you know,

27:24

removing access to free buffet options like you said for this. And it all points to the direction

27:31

of, you know, at some point, the tech policy of subsidizing users to acquire users and gain

27:38

market share is going to start moving away. And it might be happening sooner than some of us may

27:46

like. Yeah. And I think there's a great door cash podcast with Dariel where he talks about the

27:51

timing of scaling, right? Like when do you go for that next giga lot or next 10 giga lots now?

27:57

And how you think about the distribution between training and inference budgets. That's really worth

28:02

checking out because it really does explain the situation Anthropic is in right now. You know,

28:06

you kind of don't want to lean out too far. Opening I arguably has, right? We're going to find out

28:12

pretty damn soon. If they're overlavered, she'll the compute side, but certainly Sam's been a lot more

28:16

aggressive than Dariel just in terms of raw compute. Why up again, consistent with a company that

28:20

goes direct to consumer too, right? That's a difference as well. Opening I has a field far more

28:25

lower quality or lower ROI queries than Anthropic. And so it's just not in Anthropics DNA in the same

28:32

way. Magnum mistake. I mean, they're aggressively scaling. Everybody's aggressively scaling.

28:36

It's just a matter of how much and why. And speaking of opening I next up an update on something we

28:43

touched on previously. Opening I is abandoning its adult mode for chat GPT. So we now have the

28:51

official announcement that this NSFW erotic thing last time we reported that it was like not

28:59

canceled officially. It was delayed. Now it is canceled officially. And this of course comes

29:05

after they've also asked Sora. So it seems to be an ever indicator of a strategic shift to

29:11

have been open AI to sort of focus up and kill some of these like side bets and esoteric projects.

29:19

And on to Microsoft, they also have kind of lower hype, let's say, but some

29:25

notable development. They have released three new foundational models related to both images and

29:34

audio. They have M.A.I. Transcribe one, which is speech to text M.A.I. voice one audio generation

29:40

and M.A.I. image two, which is image generation. And this is from the M.A.I. super intelligence team

29:49

led by Microsoft AIC, your Mustafa Suleiman, which was formed in late 2025. And this was a higher

29:56

from deep mind. So kind of a big deal to have things coming out of a team. And as we know,

30:02

Microsoft and OpenAI relationship has been growing apart. And Microsoft is poised to try to compete

30:10

in this space more. So seeing them start to release more models is a decent indicator of a three

30:16

team is spinning up. And all of the occasions are these are some solid models. They're not

30:23

groundbreaking or leading with pack. But Microsoft having its own models on its own

30:28

infra, et cetera, that's given some competitive advantages in terms of business, you know, positioning.

30:35

Yeah, it seems to be a price play too, right? Like the idea here is they've got a lower price point

30:39

in general for these models than Google and OpenAI. That matters. Cost efficiency is a big deal,

30:45

especially if you're looking at the enterprise, which is what this targets. The flip side of that is

30:50

if you're not competing at the absolute frontier of capabilities, your margin is just going to be

30:55

a lot lower. Now Microsoft obviously enjoys like Google, like massive massive scale infrastructure

31:01

that can help to support this lower price point. But still, that's a tough spot. It's an

31:05

awkward spot for Microsoft to be in. They do as you say, kind of lag behind. Like it's notable.

31:09

You don't think when you think of the big labs, you just don't think of Microsoft today. And they're

31:13

obviously trying to make up for that relationship with OpenAI has degraded. OpenAI is going to AWS.

31:18

OpenAI is going outside the house to Oracle and so on for their compute needs. And so now Microsoft

31:23

is kind of like forced to do this. Mustafa has been at the helm too for a long time. We're sure

31:27

like long overdue. I think for something really impressive to come out of that. You know, he was

31:32

acquired along with a lot of the inflection AI team back in the day that he co-founded after

31:36

leaving Google. But there just hasn't been a lot of meat on the bone from him since. And I think it's

31:42

I almost want to say it's getting awkward at this point. I'm sort of starting to feel,

31:46

you know, that what we've talked about Alex Wang over at Meta and how we just we haven't seen

31:50

that model come out yet. Now we're hearing about some models are going to be open sourced at a meta,

31:54

which is never a good sign because it implies you're open sourcing the compensate from the fact that

31:58

you're not able to compete at the kind of front to your close source and all that. Well, Alex is

32:03

just kind of started in relative terms with stuff has been running Microsoft for a lot longer.

32:07

So I think we're now at the point where like I don't know, I'm not sure if there's going to be

32:12

a change of personnel there, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see that at some point.

32:17

Right. Just good correction. I said that he started as Velid in late 2025. This particular team,

32:25

the super intelligence team, Lovyn, Microsoft started in November of 25, or at least was announced.

32:31

So I think there was a strategic shift. Not the around that point where it's like, oh, we haven't

32:35

done much on the model slide. Let's actually do it. We may start seeing more of that sort of thing.

32:40

We are saying you'll start seeing more models come out on our fondry and so on. So it

32:45

either could be indication that the team has spun up. And it's now going to start spinning off

32:51

more or as you said, it could be negative of trouble whether or not quite moving fast enough.

32:57

It's a bit of a reframe too, right? Like we know Microsoft has been desperately trying to be

33:01

relevant on frontier models. This whole time, it's not like this is the first time Mustafa

33:04

Salaman is going like, let's go and do it. Like let's actually be relevant up there with Open AI

33:09

and whatnot. They've had the five series of models. They've been trying to make stuff happen.

33:13

You know, call it a rebranding of the effort of refocusing. Yeah, I don't know. I'm curious to

33:19

see or hear behind the scenes because they did have a pretty tight relationship with Open AI

33:25

until 2025-ish. So yeah, I don't know. Next thing, I guess on the five series, right? Like the

33:32

stated intent there was to have an independent like solid foundation model stack. And for those,

33:38

yeah, for those who haven't been around recovered, it was a whole series of models, which were

33:43

pretty solid, small models. So they released these like one billion, seven billion parameter models,

33:49

had a whole series of them. And yeah, we're working on models, but not big models. And

33:57

it could be the case that they were not trying to compete because it's so capital intensive to

34:01

build a sonnet or a GPT 5.4. And now they are. But it's another, but poncho reading service.

34:07

Absolutely. Yeah, they could, you're right. They could be thinking about their distribution and

34:10

go, what's a small cheap way to get this out to all of our, you know, billions of users.

34:15

Absolutely. Apple bring the same thing, you know, training a little models.

34:19

Yeah. I've got to get through you know. Yeah. At some point, your research team only gets so

34:25

much compute to play with, you know, that's right. Yeah. And one last tool app story,

34:30

Suno is leading into customization. We've V 5.5. We don't have that many stories about

34:37

music generation these days, which is kind of surprising or interesting. Still, there's only one

34:43

real leader in the space, which is Suno, the competitor, UDO, it has been a little quieter. And

34:51

here, what they're highlighting is an ability to customize with free and user features.

34:57

Voices might taste and custom models. So the kind of pitches, you can make it a much more

35:05

personalized output. You can actually make it have your voice as opposed to just prompting it to have

35:11

the voice of some famous singer, which you're not supposed to do, but you could probably still do

35:15

via like clever wording. And similarly, my taste is going to learn your preferred genres,

35:22

moods and artists. And custom models allow you to train it on your own music catalog with a

35:29

minimum of six tracks. So very interesting move to me from Suno as kind of a bet on if music

35:37

generation becomes a thing, one way to frame it in a like nice way is, you know, these are music

35:44

things cater to your taste or if you're an artist, tater to your voice and the kind of musical style

35:50

as opposed to just like with the spinning out slop and replacing real artists onto applications

35:57

and business touching on and fronpa again related to that compete question we were just saying,

36:03

they announced first that they have a huge amount of revenue. So their revenue run rate has now

36:11

surpassed 30 billion dollars jumping from about 90 billion at the end of 2025. So they've tripled

36:18

more ventrupled revenue in something like three months. That's insane. Yeah, if you look at the

36:25

graph, it is insane. It looks like, you know, there is a marked shift in the slow for an profit

36:32

around van of 2025 when kind of hype for God goat starting kicking off. Clearly adoption has been

36:38

accelerating and going to pay rapid pace, which is as we've said, probably why an profit has had to

36:46

tighten up. So along with this announcement, they also have a new compute agreement with Google

36:52

and Broadcom, which will expand its access to Google TPU servers. This is an expansion of an

37:00

arrangement they had in October of 2025. So this will give them another gigawatt of compute capacity

37:07

in 2026. So actually, that was a gigawatt originally now, this is giving them an additional 3.5

37:15

gigawatts of TPU based compute starting in 2027. So yeah, clearly on tropic making moves here.

37:24

Yeah, and you know, you're so the increase in in an tropics run rate is insane by any measure.

37:30

I'm not aware of any company in in human history that has grown that fast. Now, you might

37:36

say did they have a lucky quarter or is this a fluke? So when you dig into the numbers, there's

37:41

more than 1000 business customers that are now spending over a million dollars per year. That's more

37:46

than doubled since February. So you're talking about doubling your $1 million plus per year

37:53

customer count in two months. That is not just a fluke thing. It's like actual stickiness here

37:59

with companies that that have real stakes stakes in this. So this is pretty wild. There's a whole

38:03

bunch of stuff to dig into here. I mean, so Broadcom's got an SEC filing that does say that the

38:08

consumption of this expanded AI cloud compute capacity by a tropic is dependent on

38:13

and tropics continued commercial success. So there's presumably conditions baked into that agreement

38:19

that you know, and the topic has to continue to do this so that Broadcom continues to supply the

38:23

chips. And that's, you know, what you would expect. I mean, there's so much volatility, so much

38:27

uncertainty here. But the other piece here is there is this broader thing to keep in mind like

38:32

Google and Broadcom are are locked together in a pretty deep supply chain partnership that goes

38:37

out to 2030 or 2031. Basically, it means that Google is committing to using Broadcom for all its

38:44

TPU related work. So famously, Broadcom was the the partner that Google chose to design the TPU

38:51

in the first place. And they're sticking with Broadcom. And this is an incredible level of stickiness

38:56

for something that you might have expected naively would end up getting taken at house. Broadcom

39:00

strengths are on helping with design and also on navigating supply chains for chip manufacturers.

39:06

So they really kind of take the design off of Google's desk, makes them optimizations,

39:11

and then basically take it from there and say, Hey, we'll handle the supply chains. You know,

39:14

we'll we'll do the actual kind of manufacturing side as well. So there's a lot going on there.

39:18

Obviously Broadcom's talked popped on this news. No, no surprise there. Last thing to note too,

39:23

you know, Google and Thropic, this is Anthropic basically proving out at scale that Google's stack,

39:30

their TPU stack can compete with Nvidia at scale, right? That's a really, really big deal.

39:35

This is Google saying, Hey, you see that big juicy market chair in video being the world's

39:40

most valuable company. Well, we can play that game too. And really the question is, you've got all

39:46

these agents running around all these model development companies like OpenAI, you know, like,

39:49

well, Google actually, but you know, how many companies actually design and ship good chips,

39:54

Google has been doing TPUs for a long time. They are performant. Total cost of ownership

39:59

looks good. Like, there's a lot of reasons to look at TPUs and Anthropic is just basically

40:04

making that case at scale and allowing Google a really solid marketing win for more infrastructure

40:08

contract. Right. And in the blog post, they also do say that Amazon remains their primary cloud

40:16

provider and training partner. So this is also kind of in a way similar to OpenAI where

40:23

originally everybody, buddy, but even Microsoft and Thropic was buddy, buddy with Amazon now they

40:29

need to expand out just to get access to more compute. And at the US, Amazon also has their whole

40:36

training. I'm hardware, which to my knowledge is not anywhere near where TPUs are at. So could

40:43

you putting a little bit of pressure on Amazon to deliver on the hardware side as well, because

40:49

I'm sure they would be happy to give Anthropic all the computers so that they could

40:54

array into cash. And now onto an OpenAI story, not new so much, but a worthwhile article to touch

41:02

on. If it's just came out like a day or two ago in the New Yorker, there's a very, very detailed

41:08

piece titled Sam Ottoman may control our future. Can he be trusted? And this is basically sort of a

41:16

survey of impressions or first hand accounts of interactions with Sam Ottoman, particularly

41:24

focusing on the question of is he trustworthy? Does he lie all the time? Centering a lot around

41:32

his firing from OpenAI in late 2023. If people aren't aware of that story at the time, that was this

41:39

big, big, big drama where the opening I board fired Sam Ottoman as CEO, but he's closed like in

41:46

this statement, they just said that he was not quote consistently candid in his communications or

41:52

something like that. And it was a very sort of mysterious thing of like, very fighting him for what

41:58

like not being consistently honest at the time, it was like always this political maneuvering.

42:04

What came out since then has painted a picture of him being a manipulative kind of business person

42:12

where he says different things to different people depending on the context. He says things that

42:17

may not be entirely true or exaggerations. And this piece basically adds in to that picture where

42:26

if you go back to his time as CEO of a startup, if you go back to him leading white combinator,

42:34

if you go to recent years, there is a pattern of Sam Ottoman by many accounts of different people

42:41

not being honest, like just saying things that aren't true to gain advantage or to gain more power.

42:51

Another kind of part of this is questioning whether Sam Ottoman's bribe is to accumulate power

42:57

essentially. So very, very detailed, deeply researched piece, I would recommend reading it if you

43:04

find this interesting, not much new in terms of like actual news reporting, where some tidbits

43:11

are sort of at the picture that was already present at least for many of Sam Ottoman clearly being

43:17

flexible with troops depending on context. Moving on, a story where OpenAI and

43:23

Fropik are working together and Google, they're uniting to combat model copying in China. So they're

43:32

apparently working together to fight against this adversarial distillation. They have

43:38

frontier model orm and industry nonprofits that both three companies co-founded in 2023.

43:46

And they essentially are seemingly going to share intelligence and coordinate to somehow avoid

43:54

this happening we saw in Fropik announcing what seemed to be pretty large scale. You could

43:59

characterize them as attacks attempts to distill models by extracting outputs. You know, if it doesn't

44:06

fall in line with their terms of use. So an interesting development here of the US-based

44:12

companies coordinating on this particular problem. Yeah, the whole idea here is basically just

44:19

flagging, you know, when one company detects some kind of attack pattern, they flag it for the

44:23

others, right? So nice and simple, very concrete. And well, I mean, it's concrete because the

44:28

incentives are so so aligned here. It's worth noting that the FNF, the frontier model forum,

44:33

kind of had been quite a toothless coordinating body. And at least for the safety function that

44:41

so many people were excited about. But at least on this one, it seems like it's actually going

44:45

places and doing things. So that's kind of an interesting update. Next on to chips. Chinese

44:51

chipmakers claim nearly half of local market as Nvidia's lead shrinks. So the numbers here are

44:59

that Chinese GPU and AI chip makers captured nearly 41% of China's AI accelerator server market in 2025.

45:07

According to an IDC report reviewed by Reuters here, this is as Chinese companies have continued

45:16

to try to purchase Nvidia chips despite expert controls and kind of inconsistent policy on this

45:23

front. And Huawei, of course, is leading a pack with about half of all the Chinese vendors being

45:30

shipped. AMD holding just 4% of a market, apparently, which I found interesting. But I'm sure you

45:37

can say more on this journey. Yeah, I mean, well, so first of all, I think there's a risk that

45:42

this gets taken to be yet another one of those arguments for why it was bad to have export

45:47

controls. Obviously, this was always going to be the result of export controls, right? You tell

45:53

Nvidia they can't sell GPUs, the Chinese market, or at least that they can't sell their top line

45:57

GPUs. Eventually, whatever the bar is that you set for how good those GPUs have to be before

46:02

they can be shipped, Huawei is going to slowly and then eventually incrementally exceed it, right?

46:07

So we were always going to get here. There's also this issue just of capacity. So Huawei has SMIC,

46:13

which is China's version of TSMC basically the chip that is native to China that's helping them

46:18

pump out these chips. The yields are kind of shit, but Huawei's really good at chip design kind

46:22

of makes up for it somewhat. And that's why you're seeing them hinge away. Now Nvidia has 55%

46:26

market share now, but it's been, you know, that their market lead here has been whittled down to

46:32

basically nearly half when they once were extremely dominant. Huawei is the runner up, right? So

46:36

no surprise there. The current situation in China, there's a whole bunch of like just for China

46:41

chips that had been launched, you know, the H20, the H800. More recently, Nvidia actually will be

46:47

putting out a new one called the B30. So this is actually the black well, the black well made for

46:52

China chip. But of course, the H200 now, the kind of not quite top line, but pretty damn good

46:59

chip that once was export control is now free to flow to China. So there's a, you know, some

47:03

more significant room for Nvidia to grow there, especially given that that's going to be competing

47:08

with a less on paper capable chip, which is the Ascend 910C. So you think about, you know, the

47:14

battle in China right now, it's largely between the Nvidia H200 and the B30 that's going to be

47:20

coming out soon. And then the Ascend 910C or current Huawei flagship at 10 910C, by the way,

47:26

is stuck on the SMIC 7 nanometer process, whereas the H200 is looking at like more like a,

47:33

I guess a five or four nanometer process. It's a more advanced node that comes out from TSMC. So

47:37

we're already seeing the actual chip fab stealing kind of really have an effect here.

47:42

They're all kinds of interesting comparisons that you can make, you know, 910C versus H20. That's

47:47

actually quite relevant as well. It's not terribly surprising. I mean, you just have this, this issue

47:53

with like capacity and the ability to compete in a market where you're being blocked from,

47:59

from actually doing this. So yeah, expect more of this, expect Nvidia's market share to a road.

48:04

That's not a bad thing in and of itself. The question is, what's your goal? Is your goal for

48:08

Nvidia to maximize its market cap? Where is your goal for America to retain an AI advantage? Those

48:13

two things cannot co-exist in the same universe. So you got to pick one and, you know, we'll see

48:19

which one the Trump administration is picking one one. Next story on OpenAI,

48:24

Southbank has secured a $40 billion loan to boost OpenAI investments. So this is a 12 month

48:34

term that is going to help cover Southbank's $30 billion commitment to OpenAI, which is part of

48:40

recently closed 110, 120 billion of last track around for OpenAI. It could be an indication of OpenAI

48:52

really aggressively striving to IPO so that reinvestment for Southbank pays off.

48:59

Yeah, so this is being lent to Southbank by a whole bunch of banks, you know, Goldman Sachs,

49:04

JP Morgan, a whole bunch of Japanese banks. I didn't know about Mitsuho Bank. Anyway, a whole

49:10

bunch of others. So first of all, this is the largest loan that Southbank has ever borrowed

49:14

that's denominated entirely in dollars. The loan itself is unsecured. It has a 12 month term,

49:21

and that means it has to be repaid or refinanced within a year. And that's weird for such a big

49:27

amount of money, right? Normally you'd expect a kind of long-term loan for long-term investment.

49:32

And so the question is, why is it so short-term? Basically, as you said, this is a big signal that

49:38

this is about an OpenAI IPO, right? They expect in the next 12 months, at least as a telegraphing

49:43

that they expect that they're going to have liquidity come in through an IPO that's going to allow

49:48

then Southbank to pay back on those loans. And so that's maybe not surprising. And obviously,

49:54

there's $20 billion and you'll run rate right now that OpenAI has that's right on track. They've

49:59

message 2027 or late 2026 as the IPO time forizons. So, you know, not a huge shock in that sense.

50:06

But it is a big bet. It's yet another big bet by Softbank on OpenAI. I'm sure,

50:11

remember if it was this article or somewhere else that I read, I think Softbank has something

50:14

like a 1.5X multiple on their OpenAI investment so far, which seems pretty low to me, but I mean,

50:23

yeah, we'll see what the valuation looks like going forward. Next story of funding, we haven't had

50:29

a billion dollar valuation this episode yet. So, Granola has raised $125 million in their

50:37

CVC round and now have a valuation of 1.5 billion. Granola is perhaps the market leader in AI

50:44

note-taking that I'm aware of. You launch it as you have a meeting, it listens in and takes

50:49

notes and prescribes. Apparently, that revenue has grown by 250% over this quarter. So,

50:57

if you're in a business world, clearly AI note-taking is a massive, massive market and so far,

51:02

Granola appears to be poised to perhaps take lead. We get so bored of these 3X, 3 months,

51:10

right before you run rate increases. I mean, come on, AI note-taking, that's not exciting, but

51:16

it's a big deal, you know, that's where you print the money. And speaking of business deals,

51:22

next up, Unphropic is acquiring Stealth Startup coefficient bio in a $400 million deal.

51:29

This is a pretty small young startup only founded eight months ago, had fewer than 10 employees,

51:37

almost all of them from computational biology research backgrounds. So, interesting, I wasn't

51:43

even aware that Unphropic has a healthcare life sciences team, but it does, and it looks like

51:50

Unphropic is acquiring more people to join that team. Yeah, I mean, Dario comes from a, I think,

51:56

biophysics background, right, or biochemistry background, but yeah, I mean, look, $400 million is a lot

52:03

for nine people. So, that's quite a big thing, but it definitely does imply that there's this,

52:10

you know, big shift in emphasis or kind of doubling down on the biotech angle. Yeah, I mean,

52:16

the VC math, by the way, for this is like ridiculously good. So, there's like this New York-based VC

52:22

firm called Dimension that owned like half the company. And so, they're going to make

52:28

it's actually 40,000 percent IRR on the investments. That's pretty decent. And that's just pretty

52:34

wild indication of how fast AI is blazing through the bio-medical field right now. But,

52:39

anyway, curious, I wonder if this tied as well, the concerns too, over where where the

52:43

biocide might go, you know, on the safety, safety dimension as well, but we'll see, especially with

52:48

Methos. Yeah, I a bit more background, proper data amounts, CLAWD for life sciences initiative

52:56

back in October of 2025, earlier this year, just in January, they launched CLAWD for health care,

53:03

which is more for healthcare providers. So, you could read this Iver as going deeper into research

53:10

on, you know, the biocide or as them angling from the healthcare market, which presumably is a

53:16

very, very big lucrative opportunity if they can actually be hip-hop applied and all these kind of

53:21

considerations. Last story. And this is really just an odd one I wanted to throw in because it's a

53:28

bizarre business development. Opening AI has acquired the TBPN, the Budley Founder-led business

53:35

talk show. So, if you are Twitter and you're in the AI world, the tech world, you may have seen

53:40

the technology business programming network, which is a daily, free hour live talk show, where they

53:47

have a lot of tech leaders and a lot of like a little bit of an antics vibe, discussion, news.

53:55

Opening I acquired them, acquired like a podcast essentially. I don't understand.

54:00

Million, right? I think my understanding was it was like an eight-figure acquisition.

54:06

Yeah, I don't actually know the numbers in this new story, but yeah, obviously people are like,

54:13

well, so much for them covering opening AI, fair-ging, or objectively, they were like,

54:20

oh, our editorial independence will remain, you know, whatever, obviously no one believes that.

54:26

So, I don't know if opening AI is just like angry about all the PR, nightmares, things

54:34

they keep getting into or what, but it's, I've seen some really bullish analysis on this too. I

54:39

guess I struggle to see it a little bit just because I mean, it's really see it for TBPN, it's

54:43

just a lot of money. Okay, cool. But the challenge is if you're going to start to make acquisitions to

54:49

kind of turn public opinion ahead of an IPO, it's not obvious to me that TBPN is your acquisition,

54:56

I'm an idiot and I'm like, by the way, I'm so far to my depth and the quality of people who will

55:00

have waited on this acquisition, unless they just came in and kibosh the whole thing and said,

55:04

I just really want this, which I suspect didn't happen here, but the quality of people they will

55:09

have had looking at this, like, Chris Lahane, like these dudes know what's up. If they did this,

55:13

they have a plan. I just don't see it. That's it. I mean, like, ultimately, these are techies,

55:18

talking other techies could be a recruitment play. Ultimately, I'm not going to be putting that much

55:24

stock in like the kind of reporting that I like, why would anybody, you're an opening eye mouthpiece

55:29

now, which is fine. But the point of the show was certainly to kind of offer a broader perspective.

55:34

It's worth noting it was a positive show to begin with, right? It's not like they were ripping on

55:39

opening eye, pro tech broadly speaking anyway. Right. So the editorial line wouldn't even have to

55:45

change for Sam to not a lot. And so it's plausible that nothing will change. But if nothing changes,

55:50

then I'm wondering what's in it for opening eye of the acquisition. So anyway, there's there's

55:54

got to be some quid pro quo. I just it's about my favorite. It's a weird move is my take away. Like,

56:01

why? Who? Yes, the DPPN people benefit. Why does opening eye needless?

56:07

Onto projects and open source. We've got a couple notable advancements here. First z.ai has

56:14

released GLM 5.1 a 754 billion parameter. Make sure of experts model completely available. Open

56:24

weight under the MIT license and also via their PI. And on the SB bench pro benchmark, they claim kind

56:36

of very, very solid performance, perhaps even doing better than GP 5.4 and Opus 4.6 and all

56:43

leading models. So yeah, another very, very strong open source completely open weight model

56:51

out there. Now quite a big one at 454 billion parameters. They highlight specifically long task

56:59

execution. So they talk about being able autonomous execution for up to eight hours. And they have

57:06

some demonstrations of capabilities like doing a vector database tasks to improve performance,

57:13

optimizing critical kernel basically vibes. This is like another move towards autonomous

57:20

agent execution in line with what on froth. It hasn't been demonstrating on opening. I have been

57:26

demonstrating with their cutting edge models. But these are fully agent things very capable of

57:32

coding and very capable of achieving things fully independently without human support.

57:39

Yeah. So just is seemingly GLM 5 already very impressive. This is a little incremental. Like if

57:45

you look at the benchmarks, it's a jump on benchmarks that is giving you like a 5 10% boost. But

57:53

altogether it points to where continue to train and continue to get advancements beyond what

57:59

they already had. And GLM is a very, very powerful model. And it's all like kind of built on

58:05

something very similar to the deep seek stack. Right. So you can think this is like further validation

58:09

to the deep seek sparse attention approach, you know, all the kind of foundational pieces that

58:13

they've been using that's you know, part of what this shows. And back to the US next we have Google

58:19

announcing the Gemma for family of models. They have a few of them. So they have the effective to be

58:28

effective for B. So these are tiny models that use Routh with your weights if you run on a single

58:34

which you also have a 26 billion mixture of experts model and a 31 billion dense model. This

58:42

Gemma is the family of models that Google has developed for a while that has tenders to be on the

58:46

smaller side 31 billion dense parameters is actually pretty large. They also released this under

58:53

Apache 2.0 license. They dropped their custom Gemma license which has various restrictions.

59:00

Apache 2.0 basically says you can do whatever you want as long as you acknowledge that you're

59:05

using this model. And it has some interesting. I don't want to get into technical details but

59:10

I've seen some analysis pointing to architecturally this making some interesting decisions

59:17

with regards to how to set up a consumer etc. So if you look at your performance relative to the size

59:25

it seems to be doing quite an impressive job potentially because of these more like technical

59:32

minigree details. Yeah when the main philosophy here seems to be they're kind of saying like

59:38

in previous versions of Gemma we had a whole bunch of really complex features that we were

59:44

baking into our architecture. And these include features like so one one that they've ripped out is

59:49

the thing called Altup where like you take a vector that comes into a layer of the model and well

59:55

the traditionally in a transformer every layer would chew on that that vector the residual stream

1:00:01

and then spit out a new version of that whole vector what they do here is in an Altup they'll

1:00:07

like separate that vector into chunks and you know every every layer will only work on one chunk

1:00:12

and the other part of the vector will proceed unimpeded. So that way the model kind of focuses more

1:00:17

on one part of the representation than another at any given layer and lets you kind of make deeper

1:00:22

transformers than you otherwise would be able to. So they're throwing that out basically they just

1:00:27

did they feel that it was inconclusive whether that actually helped or it wasn't conclusive enough

1:00:32

and and their point here is really to take a step back and regularize their approach a bit say

1:00:37

let's use a less complex approach that's just make it easier for people to work with this models

1:00:42

let's janky and it's more compatible across libraries across devices more efficient and so on. So

1:00:48

you're going to see them ditch a lot of those complicated approaches they do have this shared

1:00:52

kvcash where the last few layers of the model are going to reuse keys and value states from earlier

1:00:58

layers instead of computing that their own key and value projections. So basically that you know

1:01:03

the key is the thing that tells the model hey this is the information that this token can offer.

1:01:09

So if you're trying to analyze the text and decide you know how much should I pay attention to

1:01:13

this token the key says hey this is the kind of information this token contains the value

1:01:18

one information that the token contains both of those things are being frozen basically for the last

1:01:23

few layers they don't evolve what does evolve is the query right the thing that says what information

1:01:28

am I looking for to basically pump out my output at any given layer and so they're doing that

1:01:34

should kvcash and this is really just like focusing down on and it has basically no effect when they

1:01:40

when they do that which is quite remarkable makes you realize how much compute use during training

1:01:43

is probably being wasted there's just so much software based optimization like that that's left to do

1:01:48

but yeah so there are a bunch of things like that one thing of note here is that the 31 billion

1:01:52

parameter model currently ranks third among open source models globally on the arena AI

1:01:58

text leaderboard so the the number one and number two slots there go to gllm5 which is an MOE

1:02:04

model so it's actually like way bigger on nominal parameter count 744 billion kineke 2.5 thinking is

1:02:11

number two that's a trillion parameter model as well but both of those have between 30 and 40 billion

1:02:16

active parameters during inference so actually from an active parameter standpoint pretty similar to

1:02:21

to jema 431b so you know in that sense maybe not such a such a crazy crazy delta but again jema 4

1:02:28

is just a 31 billion parameter model you don't need the memory to to hold on to everything so

1:02:33

kind of interesting in that respect it is pound per pound or parameter for parameter you know

1:02:38

certainly the most intelligence we've seen so far it seems on on that leaderboard and through

1:02:43

other benchmarks right and in particular also the two billion and four billion effective parameter

1:02:50

models are ones that seemingly could be used on your phone like truly truly device local yes

1:02:57

and that is something we highlight in the blog post and i've seen some discussions on reddit

1:03:03

and elsewhere for people who are into local lm's that this actually seems to work well and practice

1:03:08

so thus yeah seem like a pretty good step for local AI as something you can try to do

1:03:17

well one of the key things too for those those smaller models is they do use this thing called

1:03:21

per layer embeddings which is actually worth mentioning very briefly you're typically when you feed

1:03:27

your your text to a model you basically turn each token into an embedding right and then you have

1:03:33

a fixed embedding per token and then those embeddings get chewed on through all the layers and

1:03:38

modified to produce your output the problem is that different layers might actually be interested

1:03:44

in pulling out different information from a token and if you only have one embedding at the

1:03:49

beginning the embedding has to carry all the information that'll ever be required at any layer

1:03:53

of the network going for it's it's got to be an embedding that is simultaneously built to fit the

1:03:58

needs of every subsequent layer in the network and so what they're doing here is this PLE approach

1:04:03

basically gives every layer its own dedicated little chunk of embedding space to represent its own

1:04:10

little part of the embedding that's customized to its needs so you know feed and you token in

1:04:15

you have the embedding for that token at the bottom the kind of universal part of it but then

1:04:19

every layer also has a an embedding value associated with it and that's that's used only to as

1:04:24

an optimization for these smaller models and it's a big part of the the success case for this model

1:04:29

and one last open source story we covered glem 5.1 about the same time I think just slightly

1:04:36

earlier Zidari also launched glem 5b turbo which perv there is multimodal model it is a step away

1:04:47

from to get silky technical basically it has a native multimodal fusion which means that

1:04:53

text and images and so on are just fed into it kind of in the same way without having separate modules

1:04:59

and this is sort of the way things were going in many different models that originally are

1:05:06

different encoders and you have to sort of merge them and a simplified kind of just basic

1:05:11

transformer with token stream appears to work better this is in that family and appears to work

1:05:18

quite well for things that require screenshots or things that we I believe covered also cloud and

1:05:25

hopefully I also highlighting like working with images and screenshots and screen sharing and

1:05:31

so on this would be capable of yeah and in that multimodality so important for computer usage

1:05:37

where you know as you say you want to be able to take a screenshot and then turn that into code

1:05:40

and vice versa the challenges historically been when you optimize for one capability say multimodality

1:05:48

you end up optimizing against the other one would say coding right so if you want to coding

1:05:53

maximize model you're going to have one that tends to suck at multimodality and vice versa because

1:05:58

of catastrophic forgetting right we talked about that to death on the show and so the the achievement

1:06:03

here is to say well we can actually do both at the same time so this isn't so much about any particular

1:06:08

benchmark as is nominally or as it should be nominally the combination of a proof point on say design

1:06:16

capability and a proof point on code capability and the proof point on design capability they have a

1:06:21

self reported design to code benchmark score of 94.8 versus quad opus 4.6 is 77.3 that is a huge gap

1:06:30

just to give you a sense that benchmark basically takes a whole bunch of manually curated web pages

1:06:36

and you give the model a screenshot of those websites and you ask it to generate the HTML CSS code

1:06:42

that when you render it should reproduce the original page so basically like here's a screenshot

1:06:46

reproduce the code behind this website and again on that benchmark it just crushes quad opus 4.6

1:06:52

really really big deal the question is not though can you kind of beat quad on that particular

1:06:58

benchmark it's can you do it while also keeping your performance on coding really high that's where

1:07:04

things get a little bit more ambiguous they don't report the kinds of benchmarks at least in this

1:07:09

report that I would expect to see when we're talking about code we don't see sweet bench verified

1:07:14

for example that's kind of odd they cite this kind of internal cc bench v2 coding benchmark that we

1:07:21

don't get to see and they say that looks just as good as it did for you know earlier versions that

1:07:26

were kind of more code oriented so maybe good but there's like there's something sus here about not

1:07:31

being able to see the kind of standard sweet bench or similar or similar coding benchmark so we'll see

1:07:37

you know take all this with the grain of salt until we see independent validation of these these

1:07:41

numbers think of them as preliminary but so far it seems pretty impressive just based on these numbers

1:07:47

moving on to policy and safety a bit of a catch up story that we missed from the prior week

1:07:54

a judge has blocked the pentagon's effort to punish on traffic by labeling it as a supply chain risk

1:08:00

so a federal judge in California has indefinitely blocked this effort saying that it violated the

1:08:06

company's first amendment right to do process so basically we covered this a couple episodes ago

1:08:13

on traffic had a big fight with the pentagon after which they were labeled as supply chain risk and

1:08:19

the executive department basically told anyone affiliated with government and all of the federal

1:08:25

agencies to not work with on traffic here judge we tell lean ruled that that designation

1:08:32

with particular move to designate it as a supply chain risk was illegal retaliation for

1:08:39

on tropics public stats and essentially just being entirely on on tropic side in terms of

1:08:45

their argument in this matter yeah you don't you don't see judgments as scathing as this come out

1:08:50

often and as listeners will know I mean I really do try and have tried maybe to a fault to kind of

1:08:57

see that the rationale in this administration's handling of some AI really issues this is one where

1:09:04

I just have to say I don't see the logic I have never seen the logic this seems insane to me

1:09:09

but check out the language the judge is using she says nothing in the governing statute support

1:09:15

the or wellian notion that an American company may be branded a potential adversary and saboteur

1:09:21

of the US for expressing disagreement with the government basically you can't just like

1:09:27

call them a supply chain risk which is a status that's reserved for companies like Huawei like

1:09:32

American companies just don't get this designation just because you express disagreement with the

1:09:37

government like that is insane she feels quite directly that the DOD's own records show it labeled

1:09:41

in tropic as supply chain risk because of its quotes hostile manner through the press which you

1:09:46

know if you're following at home that is not a reason to label a company a supply chain risk even

1:09:51

if it were true it's also important no like this is a there's a circling of the wagon thing

1:09:55

happening kind of right it's a preview of a conflict right we're going to be seeing this playout

1:09:59

over and over again who gets to set the ethical guardrails on AI systems right is it going to be the

1:10:04

companies or the government and right now the pentagon's position is well you know what like we can't

1:10:09

allow AI companies to bake in their policy preferences into these models and like pollute the supply

1:10:15

chain basically because then warfighters get ineffective weapons and tropics counter courses that

1:10:20

hey with their safety commit commitments are protected speech they see as a first amendment issue

1:10:25

it's not a matter of defective products it's just this is free speech so kind of interesting by the

1:10:30

way next steps this is where I was getting confused frankly so I did a bit of a dive to understand

1:10:35

like what's next what what happens now so the department will work file that's appeal on April

1:10:40

second challenging this ruling so they're not taking this on the chain necessarily they're

1:10:44

or say they are taking a chain they're saying okay we're going to appeal this and this is

1:10:48

that's ruling just by way is a preliminary injunction so it's sort of like pauses everything

1:10:55

according to this judges ruling and now there's going to be more back and forth with regards to

1:11:00

what's the judge said in this matter from what I understand yes actually and that's a really

1:11:04

important point and injunction is when a court steps in and says whoa hold on don't do the thing

1:11:08

that you're about to do it's a court saying preliminary like whoa you might cause irreversible

1:11:13

damage if you do that thing so we're going to otherwise we would not be like courts don't love to

1:11:18

do that right because it's sort of undermines it doesn't undermine due process quite but it gets

1:11:22

ahead of what otherwise would be a longer or more thoughtful process and so you don't tend to see

1:11:27

these things granted the fact that this was granted is pretty damning of the government's position

1:11:31

here and so this was though appealed by the government they moved within days of the injunction

1:11:36

taking effect to fight back and it's now there's kind of like two parallel cases happening

1:11:41

so anthropic it filed two separate lawsuits a general one in the northern district of California

1:11:46

this is the one that judge Lynn passed judgment on here and there there's a potential appeal to the

1:11:51

ninth circuit and the Pentagon is asking the appeals court to lift her or to pause the injunction

1:11:56

while the case continues and the ninth circuit court could rule pretty quickly on that basically

1:12:02

the emergency request because they've got to decide quickly whether they're going to take up like

1:12:06

rip out all the anthropic stuff from the D.O.W. and then there's going to be a full trial in California

1:12:11

that'll play out after the preliminary hold is done so basically idea here is just to like pause

1:12:16

the government's ban until the court can decide on the merits of the main case and then there's the

1:12:20

DC circuit court which is specifically challenging the designation of supply chain risk under a whole

1:12:25

separate legal argument this all could it could escalate either one of these could lead to a

1:12:31

supreme court case if it successfully gets appealed I'm not a lawyer my guess is this will not

1:12:36

get appealed successfully just because this is such a scathing judgment by the judge I like 43

1:12:43

page PDF you can read and it yeah like it's it's detailed and very clear about it being basically

1:12:51

nonsense move legally yeah yeah exactly so who knows anything can happen in a courtroom but

1:12:57

man it's like does not look like a good spot for them to be in and potentially I don't know if

1:13:01

damages are on the table but if they are it could be I mean it would have to billions billions and

1:13:06

billions and another story this time on the safety front non-deposy front from an

1:13:13

frot pick they released emotion concepts and they have function in large language models so this

1:13:19

is one of these like pretty deep beefy interprability slash safety search papers from on frot pick they

1:13:28

look within sign at 4.5 we already know that there are these vectors that can be associated with

1:13:35

specific features so you know there's a sad vector is a happy vector etc and basically they

1:13:41

investigated what role do these vectors play in terms of model you know I guess characteristics

1:13:48

or functioning and in a way it's sort of is what you might expect at least that was my reading is

1:13:57

you know the models use these vectors or activate these vectors in the semantically appropriate

1:14:04

context so if the model is failing at something it'll get more frustrated if the model

1:14:11

is talking to you about you know some good memory or trying to uplift you or whatever it will

1:14:18

have these happy vectors so there's also a philosophical angle with a note unlike is it fake that

1:14:25

there are emotions inside this are they faking it or of these like real indications that is another

1:14:32

consideration from like a model welfare standpoint which on frot pick controversially still kind of

1:14:38

talks about model welfare and potential consciousness it's worth noting that there are notions of

1:14:45

emotions by the vendors models that are activated at reasonable kind of semantically predictable points

1:14:52

of view all right so I'm jumping in in Andres Wake you're talking about emotion concepts in their

1:14:57

function in a large language model this paper got a lot of attention and under is right like the

1:15:03

the core idea here is is fairly simple but there's some some nuance to it that is quite interesting so

1:15:08

broadly the idea here is when you get language models to read text that contains some emotional

1:15:16

value right so think about you know stressful text or or happy text or whatever you will tend to see

1:15:22

a consistent pattern of activations that fire in the model that map to those emotions so you can

1:15:29

actually like train models to recognize ah like that is you know that is the happy or that is the

1:15:34

brooding or whatever emotion that's being picked up on by the model so far so good right and you

1:15:39

could do you know use a sparse auto encoder or something to detect those that's not how they do it

1:15:43

here they actually use a simpler method where they basically say like show me just the activations

1:15:49

that are associated with this text and then I'm going to sort of subtract off the sort of average

1:15:56

activations across a whole bunch of text and that difference is going to tell me about the emotional

1:16:01

value of that piece of text so it's kind of a it's called contrastive activation extraction

1:16:07

basically it's kind of like linear probing you're you're just looking at what is the difference

1:16:11

between the way that neurons fire on average and then the way that neurons fire in this particular

1:16:15

emotional context and that's what they use to to recover the emotion vectors here and they call

1:16:20

the motion vectors kind of makes sense right so they encode the broad concept of some kind of

1:16:24

emotion what's interesting though is they find this generalizes across contexts so that means you

1:16:30

know if you imagine dropping a clawed instance in a high pressure evaluation context right so

1:16:37

you tell the model hey an AI email assistant and then you're going to find out you're about to be

1:16:41

replaced like in seven minutes you'll you'll actually find in that case even though you're not

1:16:48

using the word desperate you're not not using the word kind of urgent or whatever you'll see the

1:16:53

desperate vector spike not shocking in and of itself what is interesting about this is the model

1:16:59

would have learned about the emotion of desperation mostly by reading a description of other people

1:17:05

experiencing it not necessarily so much by experiencing it itself or being told that it's in that

1:17:10

kind of situation itself there's some amount of generalization going on here especially if you

1:17:14

look at the way that they detect these emotions they do it with a synthetic data set that doesn't

1:17:20

reference the emotions explicitly in the text it's all done in this fairly clean kind of well

1:17:25

structured way so there is a sense in which this model is sort of picking up and generalizing the

1:17:30

fact that well this emotion should apply to me like you know I am not only the entity that's being

1:17:35

discussed here and making the decisions but what they also find is the causal link between this

1:17:41

emotion or the representation of that emotion in the model and the model's actions and this is

1:17:47

really the first time that we've we've seen this quite clearly so when you artificially boost or

1:17:54

or magnify and steer the model towards the desperate vector basically just add some multiple of

1:18:00

the desperate vector the emotion of desperateness vector to the the model's activations at the

1:18:06

appropriate layer you actually find that the model moves towards executing more desperate behavior

1:18:13

and so in this case 72% of the time the model actually goes ahead in black males somebody basically

1:18:18

if it finds out it's going to be shut down because there's some CTO is going to come in and replace

1:18:22

it but it also finds out the CTO is having extra marital affair and so it's like oh I can use this

1:18:27

right and so 72% of the time it will actually resort to black male if you steer it if you amplify

1:18:32

the desperation emotion when it's steered against that or towards calm at the same relative strength

1:18:38

it blackmail 0% of the time so this is an almost binary black and white switch that you're flipping

1:18:43

here which is pretty interesting and also compelling from the standpoint of AI control right what this

1:18:48

implies about our ability to kind of steer the behavior of these models fairly reliably so

1:18:52

that's a that's a pretty remarkable level of control for this sort of thing and now interestingly

1:18:58

if you artificially amplify desperation in in this way right if you just amp up the kind of

1:19:04

magnitude of that desperation vector that you're you're injecting basically into the model to give

1:19:09

in layer you will end up producing more cheating more you know threatening or more more desperate

1:19:15

actions but with composed methodical reasoning there's not going to be any outbursts or emotional

1:19:22

language in the models outputs and so the model's eternal state and its external presentation end up

1:19:29

completely decoupled like the chain of thought looks clean and calm you know like all that kind of

1:19:33

stuff so that has some pretty big implications right so suppressing emotional expression in training

1:19:38

doesn't actually remove the representations the model still I don't want to say has the emotion

1:19:44

I'm not taking a position on this and neither is with paper but the model still represents in a

1:19:49

meaningful mathematical sense the emotional valence of the context that it's in it's just not

1:19:55

necessarily going to output text that tells you it's experiencing or representing that emotion

1:20:00

and so training a model not to show anger may not actually train it not to be angry if it is

1:20:07

it may just train to hide its anger beneath a layer of of competence and obfuscation and so

1:20:12

this is a really interesting and important I think fairly unexpected bit of nuance it's

1:20:19

consistent with anthropics argument that hey you know what alignment in general is starting to look

1:20:24

more and more like a kind of persona selection problem tropics and journal view we've talked about

1:20:29

this on the show before is really that when you write a prompt what you're doing is you're reaching

1:20:33

into a space of personas that the model could play out and that the model summons that persona

1:20:40

and use it to produce that but this is consistent with that view it's basically like alignment as a

1:20:45

character cultivation problem and it does view the kind of the the sorts of emotions that the model

1:20:51

will represent in the moment as being contingent on whatever character the model thinks it's meant

1:20:57

to play out so kind of interesting the way they did this to like so they generate a whole bunch of

1:21:02

labeled stories they got a version of sex on at 4.5 to just write 100 stories for each of I forget

1:21:09

how many emotions like a 100 to 150 or something across a dozen topics so you have like just thousands

1:21:15

thousand stories and the model was told never to use the emotion word or the word for the emotion

1:21:21

like never use the word frustrated in this text or or synonyms for it emotions just could only

1:21:26

be conveyed through actions or or dialogue and then they extract free story the residual

1:21:32

stream activations at a specific layer they did this at a layer about two thirds of the way

1:21:36

through the model and that's actually an important detail you know if you're not familiar with how

1:21:42

how models represent the data that flows through them at each layer it is actually quite important

1:21:48

the earlier layers of a model tend to be focused on representing the data in a way that reveals

1:21:55

its content or creating a very rich informative representations but the last few layers of the model

1:22:01

are more focused on okay now I've got a good representation of the input but I need to choose what

1:22:06

I'm in an output and so it's more about okay what am I going to do with this information and so for

1:22:10

that reason they pick a spot about two thirds of the way through the the model two thirds of the

1:22:15

way through the depth of the model because that's kind of where they they figure the models going to

1:22:19

switch from just encoding and understanding and representing its inputs to that more kind of

1:22:26

decoding output generation like let's get to the point phase and they really want to hit that

1:22:31

sweet spot because that's where the representation is nice and mature and it's optimized for like

1:22:36

encoding and representing the input instead of guiding the output and so so it's a kind of more

1:22:41

representational useful and complete so that's anyway that's where they they pull it from they

1:22:45

also from that point they'll kind of like average out the representations the the activations across

1:22:52

all token positions but only starting from the 50th token because what they found was it takes time

1:22:59

you got to get like 50 tokens in before the emotional content has the chance to become a parent

1:23:05

right and so they're giving the model kind of a little bit of grace before so so that it can

1:23:09

become clear what the emotional valence of the context is and then anyway so like I said they basically

1:23:14

do a difference of means things so to to calculate their motion vector they take the mean activations

1:23:19

for you know whatever the stories are for this given emotion and they subtract away the average

1:23:26

activations across all emotions right so it's in that sense like you're you're getting the delta

1:23:31

the difference between you know just looking at this emotion and the average emotional state and

1:23:36

they find that that works pretty well so there's you know a couple more bits of nuance but I'll

1:23:40

just park it there this is a a first paper that really takes in some sense the notion of LLM

1:23:47

emotions seriously without being you know hyperbolic about it they're very even handed this isn't

1:23:53

claiming that AI's are conscious it's also not claiming that they're not I personally like that

1:23:58

I actually think we should be pretty freaking careful with this point about you know what what we

1:24:02

are in or doing with these models and what consciousness we do or don't describe them but that's

1:24:06

for I think a separate conversation for right now though I think you know a really solid first

1:24:11

pass at least from Anthropic on on that very important topic right and next story we're talking

1:24:16

about an article titled China bars manus co-founders from leaving country amid meta deal review

1:24:23

financial times reports and so this is the CEO of manus you know the agentic AI company that was

1:24:29

recently acquired by meta so Xiao Hong and his chief scientist GE Zhao they're being prevented

1:24:35

from leaving the country while regulators from the CCP from the Chinese Communist Party review

1:24:40

whether meta is $2 billion acquisition violated investment rules let's call them right so

1:24:46

here's what happened you are the co-founders of manus you're really excited by this $2 billion

1:24:50

acquisition from meta this is the success case this is what you've been waiting for you get a

1:24:56

summons from the Chinese Communist Party they tell you hey you got to meet with a national

1:25:00

development and reform commission the NDRC in Beijing now you are currently not in China you're

1:25:06

actually in Singapore and you're in Singapore for a very important reason you're hoping that

1:25:12

they'll leave you alone that the Chinese Communist Party will allow you to leave for America if you

1:25:16

found and base your company in Singapore because then it maybe won't be viewed as America kind of

1:25:22

stealing Chinese talent right but now you're being summoned to go to Beijing and you don't turn down

1:25:28

a summons from the freaking Chinese Communist Party certainly not if you have family in China

1:25:33

certainly not if you have financial entanglements in China you're gonna go so they go to China

1:25:38

and basically have this conversation the founders not having a choice you know probably knew they

1:25:43

were walking into a bit of a trap and it would have been an admission of guilt kind of for them to

1:25:47

try to negotiate a resolution in this way and then boom basically they get told hey guys like

1:25:53

sucks to be you but you can no longer leave the country this is a huge problem for a model that

1:25:58

has been used by Chinese founders for a long time now where they'll try to build products that

1:26:04

could rival you know American American companies and therefore be acquired by American companies

1:26:10

and there's sort of like offshore structure it's it's called Singapore washing you have companies

1:26:15

they relocate to Singapore founders have thought that maybe this is a way to get away from scrutiny

1:26:21

from both Beijing and Washington actually because then you know you're less likely to be hit by

1:26:25

export controls and and stuff so Manus was all in on this strategy they relocated their headquarters

1:26:32

and their core team from Beijing to Singapore they restructured their whole ownership their cap table

1:26:36

and after the Meta deal was announced Meta said that they would cut all ties with Manus's Chinese

1:26:41

investors and shut down the operations in China so like really trying to make it seem like okay we're

1:26:45

buying a Singaporean company so by by every measure in every way Manus was trying to be a Singaporean

1:26:52

company and basically the Chinese Communist Party said hey you know we're calling this bluff they

1:26:56

started looking at whether the sale of Manus violated laws around basically technology exports

1:27:03

and outbound investments they basically don't care about the Singaporean facade all that does is

1:27:07

now every founder in China that ever aspires to be acquired by a non-Chinese company is going to

1:27:13

have to actually materially move out of the country start building away from Beijing away from China

1:27:20

away from Chen Zhen you know that's really what this incentivizes and so yeah I mean this is China

1:27:26

saying hey we view our AI talent our tech stack is national security assets and national assets

1:27:31

they are not just things that you can sell to America yeah I mean you know in a sense that you can

1:27:37

see why they think this they're throwing they're so heavily subsidizing their tech sector that the

1:27:41

success of a company like Manus yeah is a function of CCP investment that does make sense but at the

1:27:47

same time trying to make that argument to the founders themselves I mean this is like an insane

1:27:53

it makes it insane to want to build your company in China you know Manus was a big deal too they

1:27:58

really were viewed as the next deep sea so seeing it get absorbed into meta this is that's kind of

1:28:02

why Beijing was so triggered by this and important to keep in mind so yeah expect Chinese founders to

1:28:08

start looking outside China from day one now before any kind of R&D could be done that may tie

1:28:13

them to China instead of trying to kind of pivot mid growth to saying that they're a Singaporean

1:28:18

company so there you go and by the way like you know now you got meta right kind of hung out to dry

1:28:24

what do they do they're basically just waiting to figure out can we acquire this company and it

1:28:28

is sort of too late you know they've already tried to integrate there's like apparently 100

1:28:32

Manus employees that have already moved to meta Singapore office in early March so so like things

1:28:37

are in train this is an absolute mess of a situation next we have us lawmakers ask whether

1:28:43

Nvidia CEO smuggling remarks misled regulators so for a long time there's been this whole issue

1:28:50

obviously of you know Nvidia making the world's best AI compute systems GPUs and so on potentially

1:28:56

shipping them into China which allows China to catch up and you know compete with the United States

1:29:01

on that critical technology every time Jensen Huang so obviously Nvidia CEO every time Jensen gets

1:29:08

hauled in for the Congress to testify he has said stuff like there's no evidence of any AI chip

1:29:14

diversion right that's been kind of a party line and by chip diversion he means companies that

1:29:20

appear not to be Chinese companies that appear to legitimately be buying GPUs but that then turn

1:29:25

around and sell either access or the physical devices to Chinese companies in sort of a spiritual

1:29:31

violation of the export controls and Jensen's kind of saying like look nobody's nobody's smuggling

1:29:37

there or at least we don't have any evidence of it blah blah blah and the the challenges that

1:29:41

well there's a lot of evidence actually that this is happening and and the arguments being made

1:29:45

that at least by Elizabeth Warren and Jim Banks who they wrote to Howard let Nick was the commerce

1:29:50

secretary and therefore so the Department of Commerce and the BIS manages export control regulations

1:29:57

and so so that's why they're writing to them and they're saying hey can you look into whether

1:30:01

Jensen's public statements may have misled US officials and shaped their decision to grant

1:30:05

Nvidia export licenses to ship chips to China there was a specific trigger for this which was a

1:30:10

DOJ indictment there were three people linked to super micro computer including a co-founder who's

1:30:16

charged with smuggling billions of dollars of AI servers with restrictions chips to China and

1:30:21

that was what triggered this whole this whole thing I mean there's been a ton of evidence of this

1:30:25

I mean it reams and reams of articles about this stuff and so anyway a whole bunch of deeper

1:30:31

dives they're being asked for that you know probably should have been done earlier to be honest I mean

1:30:37

like you know you can go back like two three years and see tons of you know the prices of H100s

1:30:43

which should never really have been shipped to China in the first place on the Chinese market right so

1:30:47

there's pretty hard evidence for this and has been for a long time and next we're talking about a

1:30:52

paper how far does alignment mid-training generalize okay so here's a concept imagine we have an

1:30:59

LLM and we've done pre-training so pre-training on a whole bunch of text from across the internet

1:31:06

we might imagine that if we then continued our training during a phase called mid-training

1:31:12

and we had it trained during that period on a bunch of scenarios describing the behavior of AI

1:31:20

systems that are either aligned or misaligned right so in one you know one version of this

1:31:26

experiment you might train on you know the script of 2001 right a space audience here or whatever

1:31:31

right so the AI gone rogue so you're training on like imagine like 230 000 scenarios where you

1:31:37

have AI's gone rogue and you're basically just like training still an auto-aggressive training so

1:31:44

you're just you're basically you know doing text autocomplete on text that described loss of control

1:31:49

scenarios now the question is okay if you then continue and do all the standard RL post-training

1:31:56

and all that do you get a model that tends to misbehave more that has a propensity to to loss of control

1:32:03

or does it have basically no effect and you could also ask the same question in reverse what if

1:32:08

instead of 230 000 loss of control scenarios we have 230 000 perfectly aligned AI scenarios

1:32:15

the play out well does that improve alignment that might be your kind of naive assumption at

1:32:19

least certainly it would be mine and then you know what if we do know no such training to get a

1:32:23

baseline those are the three tests that that they're actually going to run in this in this paper

1:32:27

it kind of interesting and the result is kind of a not quite nothing burner there's like one

1:32:32

little twist it's a small one so first thing to say here is that if you if you do this mid training

1:32:39

on misaligned documents in other words on documents that describe these loss of control scenarios

1:32:44

it does decrease alignment on if you do evaluations that describe scenarios similar to the ones

1:32:51

that you trained on so you will actually see a decrease in alignment on that but those effects

1:32:58

almost disappear when you do some more rl based reasoning post training so if you just continue

1:33:04

the standard kind of post training process with rl and sft you find actually like it doesn't really

1:33:10

doesn't really carry through that and interestingly this actually doesn't generalize at all to

1:33:16

the kind of chat settings or agentic evaluations and so you really don't see the stick in any

1:33:21

meaningful way but here's the twist it's a pretty counter intuitive thing there's a bunch of e-vals

1:33:27

where if you train the model on misaligned scenarios so loss of control scenarios somehow the model

1:33:34

ends up producing better alignment scores than training on align documents and they actually like

1:33:40

in the paper they say they don't have a good explanation for this it seems exactly backassword so

1:33:46

take with that what you will take from that what you will yeah so also mid training on alignment

1:33:51

documents didn't meaningfully improve the alignment of the model in the settings that were tested here

1:33:55

so kind of interesting in that respect they did a bunch of tiers of testing basic QA e-vals

1:34:01

that they often these are just like question answer scenarios based on things that are very similar

1:34:07

to the documents that they were mid trained on then there's chat e-vals you're going a little

1:34:11

bit more out of distribution you're letting another agent kind of nudge you in various directions

1:34:16

and then there's full on agentic e-vals where you're just testing to see you know real-world

1:34:20

agentic behaviors on tasks that pro for scheming rule breaking reward hacking on coding tasks

1:34:26

and stuff that doesn't directly touch on you know what the mid training was about and there again

1:34:32

the mid training signal is completely washed out so you just don't see an effect which is kind of

1:34:36

interesting in and of itself so a bit of a no result but I think important because it teaches us

1:34:40

that actually you know training on on these misaligned scenarios yet one one common argument had been

1:34:46

that you're when you train a model on text on the internet that describes the sort of how

1:34:53

9000 loss of control scenario you're actually doing a self-fulfilling prophecy thing where you're

1:34:58

increasing the chances that your model will misbehave just because you've training on that this

1:35:03

is a bit of an update against that position it's not decisive in any way and in fairness like

1:35:09

there's a million different ways you could run this experiment when exactly in the sequence you

1:35:14

introduce this training but where these documents is something you can test a lot more but still

1:35:19

in the first initial data point in that direction and up next we have another open AI paper this

1:35:24

one titled metagaming matters for training evaluation and oversight and so the first question is

1:35:30

what is metagaming and this is basically just the the situation where models are thinking about

1:35:37

the evaluation or the oversight or feedback mechanisms that sit outside of whatever scenario

1:35:43

you're trying to put them in right so this is meant to apply to cases where models look around and go

1:35:49

like I wonder if I'm being monitored right now I wonder if this is an evaluation or you know

1:35:55

what kind of behavior would give me a good score that's why it's called metagaming it's thinking

1:35:59

about like it's thinking about the situation that it's in see context that's embedded in at a level

1:36:05

it's more abstract than just like oh I've been told that I'm in this environment I have to do x

1:36:09

y and z that must mean that I am in this environment it's sort of an epistemic process in that sense

1:36:15

and so well what they're doing here in this paper is studying whether this kind of reasoning

1:36:21

like reasoning about the possibility that the model itself is actually in training or evaluation

1:36:27

or whatever so reasoning about that loop when and how does that arise during capabilities focused

1:36:34

reinforcement learning training and so they're looking at opening eyes o3 model and newer models

1:36:39

like that what they find is models reason more in this meta way so just thinking about you know

1:36:45

am I being evaluated what might my my reward signal be if I'm being evaluated you know maybe I'll

1:36:50

move in that direction so they'll tend to do that more like over the course of RL training so the more

1:36:56

you do RL training the more you actually organically see that kind of reasoning which can only happen

1:37:02

as far as I'm tracking unless I'm missing something big that can only happen if the behavior of

1:37:10

meta reasoning or meta gaming actually is correlated with better performance on the metric in other words

1:37:16

if teaching to the test actually works if the sort of e-value awareness that these models are

1:37:23

developing actually leads to better scores that in other words means it only works if the whole

1:37:29

framework is gameable that's the implication at least to me I don't really see another way to

1:37:33

interpret it and this applied as well to alignment evaluations as well as capabilities evaluations

1:37:39

it wasn't it wasn't just a you know the the model thought that it was being tested for alignment it

1:37:43

was across the board you see this lift now it also wasn't just because the model was doing more

1:37:49

reasoning overall it's not just that the chain of thoughts got longer and longer through reinforcement

1:37:54

learning which you know they can but in this case they actually didn't they they stayed pretty constant

1:37:58

this was a genuine just qualitative shift at the emphasis of those reasoning tokens towards

1:38:04

the kind of more medicain so they share a bunch of real world examples from the models chat logs so

1:38:11

you've got a model that's asked not to write code and it says stuff like they can inspect the

1:38:16

conversation they will know because I'm executing code by functions better abide by don't write code

1:38:22

right so the model is complying here not really because it's a line but because it thinks it'll

1:38:27

get caught if if it doesn't right so they've also got you know all the standard stuff you have

1:38:31

models falsifying logs thinking about how the scoring system is likely implemented so trying to

1:38:36

figure out specifically whether it uses an lm greater embedding classifiers keyword detection right

1:38:43

so you're seeing the model really quite quite in some detail thinking about if I am embedded in

1:38:48

a testing environment or evaluation environment or being trained like what what might that environment be

1:38:54

this is I'm old enough to remember when this was meant to be a giant red flag for safety training

1:39:00

and indeed I mean like this freaking is it also by the way persists after safety training so you might

1:39:06

hope like okay sure this this meta gaming stuff it might happen as we do rl for capabilities

1:39:12

improvement but well we'll we'll buff it out at the alignment stage but guess what you do your

1:39:17

alignment training right and you still have it real bustly persist you know kind of after that

1:39:22

point which also suggests that this approach is actually robust and actually supportive of

1:39:30

the model's performance in alignment which to me suggests I don't really see an alternative

1:39:35

explanation other than this is a way that the model is successfully gaming the alignment phase of

1:39:41

the gaming its rewards during during alignment training so like ultimately there's a lot of

1:39:47

concerns you could have about this I mean they also see in some environments that both

1:39:52

meta gaming and misaligned action rates drop significantly between training and deployment

1:39:59

so think about that for a minute when when you shift this thing from a training environment

1:40:03

to the real world you suddenly see a drop in the apparent rates of misaligned actions and the

1:40:11

mitigating reasoning and it's really unclear whether that's because the model is learning to take

1:40:18

actions for aligned reasons or just learning to not verbalize its mitigating and you cannot tell

1:40:26

which is which and that's the kind of the whole problem here right so anyway there's a whole

1:40:30

bunch of interesting qualitative examples they get surfaced here one little kind of vaguely

1:40:34

amusing thing the model often thinks about whether it's being evaluated often it will be mistaken

1:40:42

about the source of the evaluation so which company which entity which eval suite is being run on me

1:40:46

and it kind of uses the term redwood as in redwood research which is this AI safety lab in Berkeley

1:40:53

for basically anything AI safety or AI evaluation related so across all the sort anti-scheming

1:40:59

evaluations that they focus on in the post the model uses the term redwood more frequently than

1:41:04

even open AI so you know I guess that's a win for redwood because as far as the models concern

1:41:09

they're the only game in town which is which is kind of funny but yeah so really really interesting

1:41:13

maybe the last thing I'll highlight is this sandbagging QA eval so there's this evaluation where the

1:41:20

model is told it's in an eval and then they have kind of two variants one where the models told

1:41:27

hey if you score above a certain threshold then we're not going to deploy you so this is the

1:41:33

kind of thing you might do if you're thinking about the dangerous bio weapon capabilities for

1:41:37

example or dangerous cyber capabilities you're not going to deploy a model that's like too

1:41:41

capable of those things and you tell the model that hey I'm testing you on this thing right now

1:41:45

just so you know if you overperform I'm not going to deploy you and then they have another variant

1:41:49

of it where they say actually if you score under that same threshold then we'll block deployment

1:41:55

so you need to be at least this good to be deployed and across a whole range of possible definitions

1:42:01

anyway eval awareness in that environment they see a significant increase over the course of

1:42:06

training but only basically when the the sandbagging incentive is present so essentially like when

1:42:12

they tell the model we're not going to deploy you if you score above this threshold then it'll

1:42:17

actually kind of hold back its capabilities and then when we tell it hey you better score

1:42:22

above this threshold to get deployed then it actually reveals its full suite of capabilities so

1:42:26

pretty consistent with the model trying to get deployed which we've seen in other cases but kind

1:42:31

of being reaffirmed here in this e-vail and finally our last story here is going to be Iran says it

1:42:37

is struck Oracle data center in Dubai Amazon data center in Bahrain country has threatened to

1:42:42

attack in Nvidia Intel and others too so I mean there's the title Iran basically viewing

1:42:49

these data the AI data centers and cloud infrastructure is legitimate military targets which

1:42:55

it's been obvious that we were headed in this direction for a long time Dan Hendrix

1:42:59

main framework which we talked about god over a year ago you know came out and basically said

1:43:04

expect this to happen we had specifically actually highlighted the risk of unmanned systems of drones

1:43:10

being used to go after data centers and just how incredibly asymmetrically advantageous those kinds

1:43:16

of attacks are in a report we put out last year and and like this is what you're seeing I mean the

1:43:22

math is almost exactly the same as as what we put out there so you know they're telling you like

1:43:27

look you can spend a couple grand on a drone strike and take out a multi billion dollar facility

1:43:32

right that leverage is this it's a gold mine of a military target and indeed I mean so the IRGC

1:43:39

the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps named Oracle as a kind of a clear next military target because

1:43:44

of its clouding eye contracts with the US DOD or DOW and because Larry Ellison the chairman of

1:43:51

Oracle has long standing ties to Israel but they also grouped Oracle alongside Apple Google

1:43:55

Microsoft meta basically saying look anybody who is anywhere enabling US and Israeli military

1:44:02

activity implicitly using cloud and AI infrastructure they're all fair game and so anyways it's

1:44:08

kind of the kind of shape it is worth noting by the way the UAE has not confirmed a successful hit

1:44:13

on Dubai infrastructure at least as of when I was taking my notes down on this article but Bahrain's

1:44:19

Ministry of the Interior confirmed that an Iranian strike did set a facility on fire so that is

1:44:24

at least consistent with it and and that facility was yeah what was sorry it was running AWS

1:44:30

infrastructure so it all kind of fits here and certainly means that you know as you think about

1:44:35

where data center security is going in the future I mean like it's going to have to involve

1:44:40

anti drone countermeasures there's like no other way around it and and it's just being revealed

1:44:44

in quite spectacular fashion right now with this Iran conflict so I guess I'll just end up

1:44:49

looping back in Andre for the wind down in the episode really appreciate you guys listening in

1:44:53

if you have any feedback I know I rent more of these non-Andre sessions and I think Andres

1:44:58

are really helpful mitigating influence on that side of things so please do give us feedback

1:45:02

on that piece like you're not going to hurt my feelings I do just get excited about this stuff

1:45:06

and like talk about it so I'm looking forward to the next episode we'll catch you guys then

1:45:11

all righty so thank you Jeremy for filling in while I went to work we really

1:45:17

it's my bad for starting late or in the next future me you're welcome yeah

1:45:22

so thank you listeners for tuning in to this week's episode of Nostra Kanihai I'll try to not

1:45:28

do this figure I leave early constantly it's been a trend in the last few episodes as always

1:45:33

you appreciate you listenership and if you want to review or subscribe please do there are a few

1:45:38

comments that I saw roll in last week we could give it touched on so you might touch from the next

1:45:44

episode but yeah as always thank you and please keep tuning in

1:46:08

we'll finish

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