AI Optimism Has a Trust Problem

Today on the AI Daily Brief, as the political stakes increase, a more positive vision of AI.

The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI.

Alright friends, quick announcements before we dive in.

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Now one quick note, I had not been intending to do this, but this episode got very long.

And as you'll see, I think gets to some of the most important conversations that are increasingly being had

as AI moves more firmly into the political sphere.

So this will be a main only episode. We will be back with our normal format and the headlines again tomorrow.

There is no doubt that the political conversation around AI is getting louder and louder.

Part of that is the natural consequence of models growing in power and part of that is the natural consequence of elections coming up.

Whatever the proximate causes, however, from the standpoint of both politician and American voter interest,

the issue of AI is growing in significance.

Alongside that, different companies are staking their claims for the story they want to tell about AI.

Despite being increasingly isolated from the rest of the industry in this,

Anthropic seems determined to keep telling us about the potential negative consequences of AI,

with the most recent example being their Hope in Hard Questions campaign.

Now, whether that approach to storytelling can survive the IPO process remains to be seen.

Open AI, meanwhile, has shifted fairly aggressively off this type of messaging.

Sam Altman has said publicly on X that he was wrong about his expectations about how AI would interact with jobs

and had been excited to see that AI was primarily a tool for augmenting people rather than replacing them.

Then into that space comes Mark Zuckerberg and Meta.

For the last year or so, most stories about Meta and AI have been some combination of incredulity at the prices that they were paying to recruit top researchers

or almost shot and throw it a lace commentary about how they hadn't done anything with all that spend yet.

Unlike his peers at the other labs, Zuckerberg had never publicly shared the sort of doom and gloom that seemed to be a part of their assessment of the likely future.

But over the last several weeks, it's become clear that not only does Zuckerberg not share that perspective,

he wants to plan his flag in exactly the opposite place.

A couple of weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece of his called the AI Future is for everyone,

which argued that this power concentrated in a few hands is the worst possible outcome.

Then on Monday of this week, August 10th, he published a longer manifesto version of this clocking in at 6500 words.

The title in the core thrust is the same, the future is for everyone, the path to a positive AI future.

But he goes much farther in this piece to actually lay out some of how he sees it playing out.

So let's look first at a few excerpts from the piece and then we'll get to the reactions.

The defining questions of our age mark rights,

are who will have access to superintelligence in what we will direct it towards?

Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions?

Or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?

Obviously, Firmett of the answer is clear.

He continues,

we propose a philosophy based on individual empowerment as the source of prosperity,

invention as the primary purpose of superintelligence and balance of power as the foundation of safety.

Reiterating a line from the piece that was published in the Wall Street Journal,

he says it is surprising that the discourse from many developing AI is so filled with doom.

I do not understand why anyone who believes that AI will eliminate most jobs and much of humanity's relevance would rush to build that future.

The notion that AI is so dangerous that the only safe path is an extreme concentration of power seems inherently problematic.

Historically, hoping that an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity,

if sufficiently enlightened, has not led to safe or positive outcomes.

So that's the big idea. It was the big idea that he was exploring before, but what are some of the details?

First, on job growth and the economy, he writes,

people fear that automation will outpace individuals capability growth,

leading to job displacement followed by a difficult period as people learn new jobs.

But there is no rule that AI must increase automation faster than it increases individuals capabilities or demand for new skills.

Recent statistics suggest it may be more likely that individuals capability growth

could match or outpace automation, in which case people will gain the ability to do many new things before their current jobs change.

This would lead to a healthy balance and potentially even job growth.

What's interesting to me about this way of putting it is that he's actually framing this as a math problem,

which happens faster, automation of roles, or the enhancement of individual capabilities and the demand for new skills.

What's interesting is that the forces of corporate inertia apply most significantly to the speed of automation question.

As in, even things that could be automated in many cases won't be automated because of corporations slow moving natures.

Meanwhile, the speed with which individuals can enhance their capabilities is not necessarily as bound.

In terms of other reasons Zuckerberg points to be optimistic about jobs of the future,

he points to the fact that there will, quote, always be a finite amount of compute and therefore an opportunity cost for how we use it.

His argument is that if people can use AI to invent incredibly valuable new things,

then it will make more sense to allocate it towards that rather than automating existing jobs.

But even within the context of individual jobs, he points to some that don't really exist right now that might in the future.

A generation ago, he points out there were no app developers, social media creators, electrical vehicle technicians, or data center operators.

In the near future, there will be new jobs that aren't common today, like one person product studios designing custom toys, furniture, or clothes.

World builders and experienced designers creating games, stories, and adventures,

personal biologists using superintelligence to formulate personalized treatments, and much more that we can't yet conceive.

Which is not to say that the shape of the economy won't change.

Company sizes he writes may shrink, just as they did in the transition from industrial giants to tech companies.

But he argues this doesn't mean fewer jobs overall.

It implies a larger number of companies with fewer people each.

There are many more valuable companies and services to build than people are able to build today.

Now when it comes to how to deal with risk and safety issues,

Zuckerberg focuses on what he describes as the balance of powers.

He writes,

There is a risk that an imbalance of power between individuals in government leads to a loss of freedom or totalitarian state.

This is a constant tension in democracy.

We all want individual freedom while also having a government capable of keeping us safe.

To maintain freedom, we must ensure that superintelligence primarily empowers individuals.

The ideal and liberal democracy is that people naturally hold all rights and only agree to restrict some freedoms to protect the common good.

Similarly, individuals should have access to personal superintelligence and should only be subject to restrictions when truly required.

Now interestingly, he does not propose that this means government keeping its hands off AI.

Instead, he proposes more active and ongoing engagement,

rather than just periodic check-ins when a model is ready to be released.

He writes,

We must ensure that government has access to the tools and resources it needs to enforce our laws and protect our security.

We can achieve this through deeper proactive collaboration between the labs and government in a way that strengthens the government's national security capabilities without restricting or delaying people's access to advanced models.

That is, rather than waiting until a model is ready to release for the government to review and start using it,

my proposal is that leading labs should provide the government with intermediate training checkpoints of new advanced models

and technical staff so the government can harden and secure critical systems against new risks.

This way the government gains a security capability without restricting or delaying individuals' access to personal superintelligence or causing an imbalance of power.

Now part of the reason that he suggests this is that he is arguing that even the sort of 30-day review period that the government is discussing could be problematic.

Later in the piece he writes,

Any policy that slows American model releases even by a month could add significant risk to American leadership while letting foreign models raise ahead.

Now there is a ton more in here.

There's a section on alignment and addressing existential risk as well as a section on maintaining control of superintelligence.

But one last area that I want to highlight before we get into reactions is much more here and now and that's the section called building AI infrastructure with communities.

This is basically the section where Zuckerberg lays out his vision for how data centers can work for the communities that they are in.

He writes,

Sustainable infrastructure development means that communities must benefit significantly from each project.

This includes high paying local jobs, investment in schools and public services, ensuring energy prices don't rise and taking care of the environment.

As tax revenue grows, this also benefits teachers, law enforcement, fire departments and more.

But in this section is he continues,

it's not so much about what could be but about what meta is doing right now.

Among the different initiatives that Zuckerberg points to their America's workforce academy,

which is designed to provide free training for these sort of skilled trades people that are needed around the infrastructure build out.

He discusses their commitment to building their own energy generating infrastructure, which hopefully not only covers their energy costs,

but can even provide a surplus of low cost energy back into the communities where they're operating.

He talks about the water efficiency of their data centers and broadly says that they want to invest in the communities where they're building.

In a few minutes, we'll come back to the initiative that they announced alongside this, which is meant to do exactly that.

One of the more common first reactions was basically wow, that's a lot of words referencing Dario omade's 13,000 words, strong machines of loving grace,

FinTech, Bizwick Lee's Jason McCula writes, so now he's imitating Dario omade,

although as many point out, in many ways this piece is positioning Zuckerberg to be the exact foil to Dario.

Now across about a dozen different five things to know about Zuckerberg's AI manifesto type pieces,

there were a few themes that really stood out.

The first was the commitment or perhaps recommitment to open source and open way to I Bloomberg points out that across the 6500 words Zuckerberg refers to open source at least 16 times,

stressing particularly the importance of US leadership in that area.

Many also picked up on the interesting combination of both wanting less government oversight, but also more government oversight as the verge put it that publication points to his comments on open source as an example of less government oversight,

but of course the proactive sustained engagement that we were just discussing as an example of more involvement.

I think the reality is that Zuckerberg is not discussing oversight one way or another.

What he's suggesting is a totally different and reimagined relationship between government in the private sector that doesn't view them simply as a reactive problem prevention body.

Others picked up on Zuckerberg's continued themes of calling out the concentration of AI control as a major risk,

but one of the areas that got the most attention was this section around data center communities.

Part of that was that alongside this letter meta announced a $1 billion fund to invest in those communities following the overall branding the initiative is called the future is for everyone fund.

Now of course the details on exactly what that fund is going to do remains to be seen, but if you have listened to me die a tribe about this.

This is exactly the sort of initiative at least that I have been arguing has to be written into the cost of data centers in general moving forward.

In other words, I don't believe that the billion dollar fund even if is constructed as a foundation or philanthropic initiative should be viewed as anything other than a mission critical business expense.

Hello everyone one big change around AI is we've shifted our thinking from how we rank our pages to how do we become the source that AI trusts enough to answer with at KPMG they're seeing this first hand.

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This is not just an SEO evolution but a visibility mandate and indeed the GEO mandate from KPMG is simple if AI shaping decisions your expertise needs to show up inside the answer read all about it at KPMG.com slash us slash GEO again that is.

KPMG dot com slash us slash GEO.

One of the more interesting shifts in enterprise AI right now is how quickly the conversation is moving towards infrastructure and operations as AI moves into core workflows regulated data environments and agent systems enterprises need governed infrastructure and inference that can operate reliably day to day with clear operational accountability built in from the start.

And as those systems scale the operating model increasingly becomes part of the AI strategy itself Rackspace technology is the operator of the full enterprise AI stack from agents to infrastructure across private cloud hybrid cloud and edge environments.

Rackspace builds and operates govern day infrastructure inference and production AI systems for organizations were sovereignty compliance and uptime are nonnegotiable.

Therefore deployed engineers stay embedded beyond deployment to help operationalize and run AI in live environments to learn more about where enterprise AI runs and outcome scale go to Rackspace dot com.

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Now when it comes to jobs we start to see where one type of skepticism creeps in in discussing his argument that AI could expand the job market Bloomberg rights there is no small amount of irony to this take as Zuckerberg cut eight thousand jobs from meta earlier this year in response to the company's pivot towards AI.

And while there is no inherent contradiction between Zuckerberg's argument of a larger number of companies with fewer people and laying people off it still gets to the biggest issue with this overall which is a question of who the messenger is tech crunch wrote a piece called marks Zuckerberg's a manifesto is exactly why people don't like AI and one of the things that that piece gets at is something that I have long felt which is that a lot of the animosity towards AI is actually the AI industry paying for social media since tech crunch points out that a recent survey found.

That 64% of Americans nearly two thirds believe that social media has been harmful to democracy with a similar percentage saying that it should be more heavily regulated the author rights I don't bring this up to imply that Zuckerberg should withdraw to the wilderness in shame but the follow from social media is one of the central reasons we're now seeing so much anxiety about the social impact of AI whether it's fair or not the public does not trust tech executives to make sure new technologies like this have a positive impact on society instead of acknowledging that and trying to win back their trust.

The first question is whether the public is trying to win back their trust.

The first question is whether the public is trying to win back their trust.

It goes on to argue that basically the hazy generalities lead to less rather than more trust.

Over and over when I read a commentary especially outside of the advanced AI users on X and inside the more general business landscape of LinkedIn questions of trust came up over and over and over again.

For what personal super intelligence could do capturing both of these points sorbile f rights Zuckerberg talks about the importance of privacy trust the dangers of extreme concentration of power the need for governance and oversight.

Yes, he actually said that.

Oh, and he said that super intelligence is helping his daughter bake recipes and make videos in a few hours.

Yep, I'm not lying.

And I actually think that these sort of use case examples are more damaging than they potentially at first seem.

There is a growing sense that the tech industry just doesn't actually understand normal people Elizabeth Lopato from the verge captures this in her response Mark Zuckerberg doesn't understand how to live an AI future of sleek streamlined and totally empty relationships pointing to Zuckerberg's pitch that quote everyone will have an exceptionally capable personal agent that understands you your goals and everything you care about and will work 24 seven on your behalf to improve your relationships health career finances home management hobbies and more Lopato rights.

I'm struck here by the inclusion of relationships and hobbies what strengthens a relationship almost always it is personal investment perhaps an AI agent might be better at predicting what my father will want for his birthday than I am, but it definitely cannot give him my time and consideration love is not just a feeling it's a way of paying attention she continues.

Zuckerberg uses an example that is telling in a grim kind of way he asked an AI to pick out a personalized recipe to bake with his daughter he could have considered what kind of baking his daughter enjoys what her skill set is.

And what he might have been able to teach her then picked a recipe maybe he would have picked a bad recipe and they would have bungled it but that might have been a fun experience and a good story or maybe he would have picked a family recipe and it would have given him the opportunity to tell her about when he was a child or what his grandmother was like.

Certainly he's a busy man but when that make the gift of his attention to her hobby even more precious perhaps he might have come to understand her better by spending more time thinking about what she likes without that attention the baking they do together seems more focused on accomplishment and quality time.

She then goes on to point out the inherent contradiction of trying to optimize a hobby she writes the point of a hobby is that you do it granted many of my hobbies are physical activities hiking running yoga rock climbing but an AI cannot read a book for me because the activity of reading a book is absorbing its words into my mind a summary doesn't do the same thing a summary cannot some of the mood or the actual pleasure of reading the words themselves an AI cannot replicate the soothing quality of knitting my own scarf it is the knitting itself that suits.

Now some of you also might be remembering the dust up from this Sam Altman tweet from a couple of weeks ago where he wrote cool use case of chat you be T work I heard last night connect your family calendars and explain your kids interest every morning for the drive to school have it make a podcast that talks about one kid soccer game that afternoon one kids upcoming birthday some news etc and man even the AI faithful instantly knew that even though he probably didn't intended this way it came off his Altman and buy extension the larger tech industry not being able to be bothered to actually engage

with and talk to their children now to be clear I think that a lot of the discourse that surrounded that Sam tweet was this new emerging strand that basically views every parental or family use case of AI as a cop out and a shirking of traditional responsibilities and I think that is absolutely

preposterous host of the how I AI podcast Claire Vaux reposted a tweet from June of 2023 when she had used mid-journey and chat GPT to generate a deck of Pokemon style cards with characters from Greek mythology as a weekend art project and added crap

on parents using AI all you want but it was doing things with and for my kids that AI pill me three years ago not coding not personal productivity but little projects that got my kids and I off screens and playing together

and if you are interested in more of the awesome and very cool ways that parents and families are using AI to massively increase their value not only around learning and schooling but around their engagement with each other

I encourage you to follow Claire she's at Claire Vaux V.O. or Jesse Bennett at J.E.S.S.E. GE and ET who is just constantly posting her experiments with using AI around interesting school and family projects still none of those counter examples change the fact the by and large people feel like tech is out of touch with regular people

on the flip side there are a lot of folks who were quite excited about this Nathan Lambert pointed to Zuckerberg's argument that quote open source is a positive and important force for empowering people and said really glad to have Mark back pushing for team open and responding to meta putting its money where marks mouth is on this front just in shoulder wrote delicious this is the Zuckerberg the world needs now what he was responding to there was the announcement of a new open source model from meta called muslimmer the model has 30 billion parameters making it small enough to run the world and

the world is running on local hardware performance looks pretty competitive with similar sized models generally outperforming Google's Gemma 431 B and slightly behind quen 3.6 27 B on a few key metrics meta is selling this specifically as an agentic model claiming it's perfect for running an agent that quote manages your schedule drafts your messages organizes your files and learns how you work now their argument is that for a model to do all that highly personal work well it quote needs deep access to personal context that required access is their entire logic for

open sourcing a model like this what's more in addition to muslimmer Zuckerberg flag that meta plans to release the weights from use spark 1.2 soon adding another frontier adjacent open weights model to the ecosystem yet for some they're just happy to see a positive optimistic take for once from the AI industry itself Robert C. O'Brien writes optimism and belief that our best days are ahead of us are quintessential American traits thank you Mark for reminding us that these traits also apply in the AI context and while it's easy to be

cynical or to dismiss the message because of the messenger I have to say that the discussion it is kicking up is far wider and more thoughtful than even I would have guessed before it was published if you go Google Zuckerberg essay almost every major outlet has written some article about the peace and while yes many of them are totally reasonably sharing their skepticism with certain parts or they're recurring critiques of Zuckerberg himself or meta as a company to the extended goal was to at least

have a different type of discussion about AI there is evidence that it's working it would be easy to overstate this but I do sense the very beginnings of a recalibration of the conversation around AI I have long argued that the public discourse about AI is ruled by extremes on either side that don't actually represent the perspectives of the vast majority of people in the middle and when I poke around on media that isn't my direct AI bubble I'm starting to see a lot more assertion of that middle space I'm seeing people for example

in the same TikTok video argue that while AI should absolutely not be used to for example replace artists that there were some valuable uses for it done well and more than that that the anti AI perspective was getting almost performative

now opinion polls by and large don't agree with this take and they are often showing concern increasing my belief is that lots of folks are being onboarded into this conversation through the lens of concerns

cyber security issues hacking stories and anti data center activism but I believe that by and large when we treat people as smart they act smart and there is a men's room when it comes to AI for not only thoughtful nuance on this discourse but agency and where the conversation takes us

candidly Mark Zuckerberg might not have been the messenger that I would have chosen but at this point I will take anyone with any amount of voice from the AI industry loudly proclaiming the good that AI might let us win

for now that is going to do it for today's a ideally brief appreciate you listening or watching as always and until next time peace