Zuckerberg’s Anti-Doom Fantasy + Finally an A.I. Detector That Works + A.I. Math

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That's j-i-r-a.de.

Casey, good morning, how are you?

Well, Kevin, this morning I'm feeling very dream beans piled.

Are you familiar with dream beans?

I am. I think you told me about it.

So dream beans is an experimental app from Google and here's what it does.

It reads all of your emails and then it tries to send you a daily set of inspirations

based on the sort of person you could be if you didn't have a job

and were interested in the absolutely insane things that dream beans thinks that you might be interested in.

So if you go into our slack here, I put some of our ideas from today.

And the reason I thought of this today was that it for the first time made a suggestion about the two of us.

So dream beans also plugs into your Google photos and the reason I keep opening it is it makes these illustrations of you and your friends like people in your life.

It makes like cartoon slop of like here's what you and your family and your friends could be doing.

If you like were a healthy well-rounded person who didn't spend all day looking at a screen.

Exactly. Now I did have to cut off the suggestion here because it was based on proprietary information.

We can't release to the public. I will say I'm looking very fetching in my blazer over a graphic tea, which is not a look that I have worn since 2006.

But as you sort of keep going through these like here I am in a in a like my pajamas getting ready for bed.

Here I am in the gym looking way buffer than I actually am.

The incredible inspiration here is weekly undulating periodization for sustainable strength gains.

Who is doing this who is this for and then finally this is my what maybe one of my favorites is me and my fiance were apparently in an old time print shop making wedding invitation.

So anyway if you haven't used the dream beans app go use it right now because I guarantee it will be shut down by the end of the year.

Why do you think it will shut down because it serves no purpose whatsoever.

I kind of like it so it's like it's like it's like lifestyle voyeurism but for your own life for yourself.

Yeah. What kind of person could I be in an alternate universe.

Let me open I haven't seen my dream beans yet for today.

Bro we got to see your beans.

So that's what this is what you say to other dream beans user you say hey show me your beans.

Okay so I've got okay explore the open architecture of the 1981 IBM PC.

There's like me in a chore coat looking at an old PC.

Oh you're in here.

Yeah.

It says prepping your night vision for the Percy and meteor shower and there we are in a field together.

Looking at the stars.

It is a picture of Kevin and I underneath the stars just look Kevin and I are friends and we do hang out.

We have never actually got to see a meteor shower before and I'm not sure that we would.

Wait I kind of love this.

Yeah.

Let's go look at the start.

Will you go look at the meteor shower with me.

Let's get out of here.

Let's let's go see the dang stars.

Let's turn our dream beans into reality beans.

I'm Kevin Ruse of tech call him Seth the New York Times.

I'm Casey Nude from platformer and this is hard for this week.

Mark Zuckerberg has a positive new vision about the future of AI.

Is it credible?

Then pan gram CEO Max Spiro is here to talk about the breakout success of his slop detector.

And finally we're running the numbers.

It's time for our new segment on mass.

Open that's up.

Well case you missed it last week listeners.

We are preparing our swan song over here at hard for Casey and I are venturing off into the into the sunset and going to be starting a new adventure pretty soon.

But before we go, we are doing an ask us anything episode.

This will air on our final episode in mid September and we need some questions from our listeners.

Things that you have been curious about.

We got so many great ones after the call that we did last week.

This could be questions about anything our views on AI, the behind the scenes details of making the show.

Anything you think we've gotten right or wrong over the years, we just want to hear from you.

So please send us your questions in text or voice or video to hard fork at NOI times.com.

And we only have access to that email address for another few weeks.

So we really want to get those in.

It's true.

Well Casey as regular hard fork listeners know it has been a big year for very long manifestos written by people who run AI companies about what their vision of the future looks like.

And we got another big one this week.

We really did Mark Zuckerberg published 6500 words his effort to lay out a positive vision for AI.

It followed a shorter version that he published in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect that he will continue to publish longer and longer AI manifestos Kevin until his demands are met.

Well, before we get to everything that was in this manifesto Kevin, we should probably do our disclosures.

I work for the New York Times which is suing open AI Microsoft and perplexity.

And my fiance works for Anthropic.

Yes, so this one is called the future is for everyone.

And the essay starts with this sort of vague and optimistic vision.

We are fortunate to live in an incredible moment in history.

In the next few years, people will be able to use super intelligence beyond human capacity to create and discover extraordinary new things.

Build new businesses express new ideas, learn new concepts and advance our health and quality of life.

And then he goes on to talk about things like what is meta building they want to have everyone of their users have an exceptionally capable personal agent that understands you your goals and everything you care about.

You could access this through any device, including your glasses, he says.

Then he talks about some ways that he is using his AI agent to flag interesting information and help him prototype ideas to keep him healthy by monitoring his sleep and watching us.

He trains and then by giving him and his daughter personalized recipes to bake together every weekend.

There's a lot of other stuff in this essay.

It goes on for many thousands of words to talk about job growth and compute recursive self improvement, existential risk, bio risk, things like that.

So Casey, you had a post this week on your newsletter about House of Dragons or some some game of throne spin off that I have not watched House of the Dragon House.

It's one of the biggest shows in America right now.

Okay, walk me through the argument you made there because I thought it was interesting, even though I didn't fully understand it.

So this past Sunday House of the Dragon had its 30s and finale on HBO.

And the thing about House of Dragons is it is a show that begins with a terrifying concentration of power where only one great family has access to a super weapon, which in this case is a dragon.

And as the start of the show, there is a schism and all of a sudden there are two factions that have access to dragons and then there is a sort of very bloody civil war.

And as I was watching this, I thought, you know, I do think you can draw an analogy to AI here because while I do believe that there are many positive things that AI can do and is doing.

I do worry about the medium and long-term future, particularly as we start to see these agents escaping their sandboxes and wreaking havoc.

And Zuckerberg's essay meets this analogy in a really interesting place because he says that the way to make us all safe is to

sort of maximally proliferate AI throughout the entire world and give personal super intelligence to everyone.

In my view, Kevin, that is a little bit like giving a dragon to everyone, right?

Because while I'm sure most people will spend their time creating personalized baking recipes to bake with their daughter, there are other people that are going to be launching cyber attacks and are going to be engineering novel bio weapons.

And I just get really, really nervous about that. So when someone comes along and says, I want to give a drag adapt.

Absolutely. Everyone I say, hold your horses or your dragons, right? And like giving everyone a super intelligence that aligns with their values is one of the sort of rhetorical twists that he does in this essay.

He basically tries to say, well, there's no such thing as like a fully aligned universal AI.

The way that people sometimes talk about it because people have different values and different wants and different needs.

And like instead of having one super intelligence that sort of has this universal code of values, everyone should have their own personal super intelligence that is tailored to their values.

And like that is a classic case of like sounds great. But in practice, like giving the CCP an AI super intelligence that obeys their values and mirrors their values would allow them to commit like atrocious acts against their own people.

And you know, the answer to that is typically look super intelligence will help the defenders as much or more as it helps the attackers and a new equilibrium will be reached.

And I do believe this will be true in some cases like I can imagine it being true in cybersecurity for example.

The problem is there are some kind of attacks Kevin where it just takes time for defenders to catch up right if I release a novel pathogen into the world that I'm able to just like sort of create in my computer and my lab.

It is just going to take the defenders a little bit longer.

So what I would love to see in these manifestos is just an acknowledgement of the utter complexity of this world.

And rather than come along and sort of paint this incredibly happy vision like you can have your happy visions.

But I think this essay in particular only pays glancing attention to the risks.

Yeah, there's there's an interesting section in the essay about bio risks specifically because he's someone who has had his own research teams doing stuff around biology and AI for many years now.

Like he's very interested in the subject and he actually acknowledges that like this may be a case where the attackers and the defenders having equal tools may not be the perfect solution and it kind of punts on it.

So I think he is like aware that this like I don't think he's fully naive.

But I think he just doesn't have a good answer for that part yet.

No, and all of that comes secondary to what I view is the actual purpose of this essay which is to advocate for a bunch of policy positions that are beneficial to meta.

Right, which gets into the next thing that we want to talk about today, which is why this essay and why now?

Yeah, so you've been a close student of Mark Zuckerberg for many years like what what do you think he's up to writing this essay now?

So when you read this essay here are some of the things that it asks for Kevin accelerating the process for building data centers, which the company needs to accelerate this potential Neo Cloud business that it's building.

He interestingly as you know, even though he's Mr. Pro open source, he wants us to maintain export controls on advanced chips, which advantages metas open weight models over any Chinese or other alternatives because the Chinese don't have access to the chips that meta does.

He wants the government to reduce what he calls training data restrictions, which would help meta fight various ongoing lawsuits from the creatives whose works were used in creating its models.

And he wants to see legal protections for distillation, basically letting meta, you know, use the outputs of other models to train its own. So buried inside this very positive happy vision of AI is just a series of policy requests to help meta as a business.

And there have been some people speculating that like he is promoting this now because they are trying to divert attention from the other thing that is going on at meta right now, which is all these lawsuits and court cases about.

The sort of various failures and dangers associated with their social media products. I don't think we have to attribute that to other people I would say that.

You think this is just sort of a distraction from the the else that they're taking in court.

I mean, not exclusively I think this essay serves multiple purposes and one is to get that policy wishless out there right this is something that all of metas lobbyists can now take into Congress and say look what mark is calling for this really helps you understand what we're thinking about all these issues.

That's an important reason. But I do think the timing here is really notable Kevin because as you note meta is in the series of getting its ass handed to it in court case after court case related to its existing business where state after state is coming after the company saying that Facebook and Instagram in particular are not safe for teens last week.

The new Mexico judge ordered meta to pay an extra five hundred and sixty seven million dollars into a teen mental health abatement fund that's on top of three hundred and seventy four million dollars in civil penalties.

And I think more importantly Kevin that and this is the thing that's really going to stick the judge ruled that metas platforms are a public nuisance.

He compared meta to factories with the psychological harm and exploitation of children as the pollution it emits and he's also ordered really like strict new safety measures at least by American standards a 90 hour per month cap for under 18 users and some new restrictions on AI chat bots.

So you know keep in mind Kevin there was a time when Zuckerberg was writing these happy manifestos about social media right and he was saying that the way that we're going to have a happy world is we're going to make it more open and connected we're going to get every single human being on Facebook and Instagram and get them all talking and we're going to have more democracy than you've ever seen before suffice to say that didn't really work out now we get to bring the exact same maximalist universalist for me which of course also maps 100% to meta's business interest but this time in the context of

AI yeah I agree with all that I think there's an interesting question here though which is like do we think meta has a shot at actually building super intelligence right like a lot of people have views on the future of AI and the future of super intelligence and we don't really care about them because those people are not in a position to actually make super intelligence.

I would say until very recently my position was that meta was sort of out of the race to build powerful AI systems that could one day become super intelligent.

I'm curious where you stand on that like do they have an actual shot at bringing about the future that Mark Zuckerberg is talking here well listen the first rule of Mark Zuckerberg is never count out Mark Zuckerberg he truly is one of the very most competitive people in the entire world he will move mountains in order to get what he wants and we saw him do that a little over a year ago when he reorganized his AI efforts yet again they have made notable progress since then when I talk to my AI friends they tell me that they actually think pretty highly of

some of the moves that meta has made over the past year particularly when it came to reassigning a bunch of engineers to do what is essentially like reinforcement learning creating training data the meta engineers didn't really love that but AI folks I speak with say that is actually going to give them something really valuable but to answer your question in brief no I do not count them out what you think either I think you know I probably would have given them a 1% chance of creating super intelligence six months ago and now I'm up to maybe

like a 10% chance which is which is a big improvement I think their models have been getting steadily better some of their training runs that they did after they built the whole meta super intelligence labs and hired all those expensive researchers and bought on that compute some of those have come online and are now starting to produce good results they had some some pretty impressive results on their latest model so I think it is it is true that meta is not a frontier lab right now but I think they are showing signs of

rapid improvement and that worries me as someone who thinks that this is not a company that sort of has the DNA culturally or the track record of building products at scale that are actually safe and responsible for people and it's making you think of this conversation I had a few years ago with former deep mind executive where this person was basically saying look there are two types of AI companies there are companies that think that they are building tools and there are companies that

think they are building a G I or like an entity something that could become smarter than humans and it's fine to be either one is what this person said like you can do what you know a lot of companies have done which is just decide we're just not going to be in the AGI game we're going to build these tools they're going to be very useful to people they'll get smarter over time as the models get smarter that's the business

that we're in it's also fine to be a company that is explicitly trying to create a GI or super intelligence as long as that's what you know you're doing and as long as you're sort of taking the right precautions and as long as you're going into it with the right spirit that can be done responsibly to this person said that the real danger is if you have a company that thinks it's designing tools but it's actually designing super intelligence and that kind of company this person said is not going to be taking the

proper precautions they're not going to be treating the technology with the correct sense of sort of reverence and suspicion because they don't actually believe deep down that it's ever going to get powerful enough to be

dangerous and so they're just going to sort of waltz right into this disaster because they have no conception of what they're building and at the time this person was saying this to me about Google which I think you know a couple years ago was in sort of the the throws of this debate about

whether they were building super intelligence or AGI,

or whether they were just building like better versions

of Google photos and Gmail and Google search.

I think meta is in this position now,

where they are maybe going to build something

extremely powerful with this,

I think very naive attitude about the fact

that these things will only ever be tools

that will be useful for recipes and things like that.

Yeah, and again, it is the company's history

that just makes me concerned

because the way that this company operates

is by growing as much as it can

and treating everything as an existential competition

against the other guy.

And the sort of external effects on society

are typically given short shrifts.

So, you know, in this present moment,

I do not trust these people to rank a list

of viral dances for me to look at

without it corrupting my mental health.

Once you give these things access

to like novel biotechnologies,

it starts to get pretty worse in Kevin.

Yeah.

Yes, I would also just say like Mark Zuckerberg

is possibly the worst messenger for the AI industry

on all of this.

Like if he thinks that writing this positive

sunny vision of superintelligence

is going to like sway public opinion around AI

and you know, get people to stop protesting data centers,

I think he is badly mistaken.

Yeah.

From the people who brought you Cambridge Analytica.

Sometimes superintelligence.

Superintelligence.

Yes.

I mean, here's the thing.

And this is not limited to Zuckerberg.

Any of these AI labs, maybe eventually will do this.

Like you could just deliver actual benefits

to people's lives.

You know, it's interesting to me that the manifesto

has to come so far ahead of the actual benefits.

We are just clearly long past the time

when writing essays is going to shift public opinion.

What is going to shift people's opinion

is AI is getting them paid more, right?

It is obvious that it is not going to harm them

and their families and it delivers other benefits

into their lives.

You know, it's making them more creative.

It's giving them more entertainment.

And of course, to some degree,

some of these things are sort of happening,

but not in the volume and magnitude that are necessary

to counter people's very reasonable fears

about what they're seeing.

Yeah.

In conclusion, when is your 6500 word manifesto

about your vision of the AI future coming out?

Well, I wrote about 1800 about Zuckerberg this week.

So consider that my opening salvo,

but I too will write additional essays

as conditions demand, Kevin.

One impressive thing about this manifesto to me

is that Zuckerberg does actually seem to have written it

or at least if human seems to have written it.

I agree.

As soon as it came out, people were running it

through AI detectors and finding that it was not flagged

as being AI written.

No, and I will give it that.

I read it.

I never once thought I was reading Slop.

I thought, you know, it's particularly in some parts.

I was like, this is just actually how Zuckerberg talks.

I'm sure it was a little bit like the state of the union

where lots of different policy hands

have their fingertips on it and said,

oh, you know, make sure to say this.

But I know I do think that this is his actual message

to what extent he believes, you know, everything in it

and to what extent a lot of it is just sort of messages

of convenience.

Well, I guess I don't know that.

Yeah.

So cynical.

Can't you just admit that maybe Mark Zuckerberg

is just a misunderstood optimist

who just wants to make the world a better place?

I've been thinking about this a lot

because a problem that I have in covering meta,

just legitimately is that I've covered it

for like more than 10 years.

I mean, it's like, but been almost like 15 years.

And so I just know a lot about this company.

And obviously, you know, it is change

in various ways over the years.

But I just remember so much about this company.

I wish that I was born yesterday

and just couldn't believe everything that I read.

But Kevin, I know too much.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I want to ask you maybe a final question,

which is like, is there a role for AI positivity?

Like, what should that look like?

Who should be writing these positive visions?

Like clearly, we don't believe in his Mark Zuckerberg,

but like someone presumably should be out there saying,

here's what the world looks like.

If all of this goes right.

So I do not think this is a messaging challenge.

I think that there is room for AI positivity,

but here's what AI positivity looks like to me.

New medical advances powered by AI, diseases cured,

new jobs created, old jobs paying more money,

kids excelling in education, right?

To me, that is the core of AI positivity.

But crucially, Kevin, it is not delivered via manifesto.

It is delivered via real experiences

that human beings are having.

And so far, that has just seemed to be a chasm too great

for any of our leading AI labs to cross.

So if they can cross that chasm,

that is the actual lane for positivity,

and I wish they would get on it.

Yeah, ship it or zip it.

Ship it or zip it.

That's a very important lesson.

When we come back, it's sloped to the max.

Max Spiro is here to talk about using Pangram

to find AI-generated text.

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Well, Kevin, lately I've been feeling like we're entering

a third era of Slop.

Yeah, what were the first two?

Well, number one was the near-universal disdain we had

when we would see the laughably bad writing

and six-fingered humans online.

Mm-hmm.

The second era, I would argue,

started when we began noticing that some of the Slop

was really, really popular,

and we saw shows on TikTok like Fruit Love Island

getting millions and millions of views

and we saw a lot of people

talking about the Slop.

Like Fruit Love Island getting millions and millions of views

proving that there was at least some demand for Slop.

And now what are we in?

So now I think we are starting to see

a splitting of the difference where yes,

some Slop is very popular,

but we're noticing that many platforms are beginning to rethink

their approach to how they want to display

and promote AI-generated content based on

what they think their users really want from them.

Yeah, and this has been a big theme on the show

for the past few weeks.

We've been talking about the steps that platforms

like LinkedIn and Substack have taken to at least label

or identify the use of AI and generate

and content for those sites.

This is a pretty big trend in tech right now

is that more and more people are getting called out

for using AI.

And primarily when they're getting called out for using AI,

what I see at least are screenshots

of one particular app, PanGram.

That's right.

PanGram is the leading AI text detector on the internet.

This is the number one NARC.

Yes, number one NARC for people who are using AI

and passing it off as their own writing.

And I'm excited to talk about this because this is an area

where my own views has shifted.

I have argued before on this show that AI text detection

is basically worthless,

that you can't trust these AI text detectors,

that they have tons of false positives,

that students and teachers shouldn't be using these things

because you could end up falsely accusing someone

of using AI.

But in just the last few months,

there's been more and more evidence

that at least PanGram and probably some of these other tools

as well have gotten quite good to the point where they are.

They're not perfect.

They're still generating some false positives and some false negatives.

But they're much, much better than they were even just a year or two ago.

Yeah, they're good enough that I at least now take seriously

when somebody shows me a PanGram result and says,

this is 100% AI generated or this was 100% human-written.

And not just left us with a lot of questions about this company,

how their technology works and how they are building it

to essentially future-proof it.

So today we've invited on the co-founder and CEO of PanGram Labs,

Max Spiro, Max is a former Google software engineer.

He also worked at Nuro, a self-driving car company,

before starting PanGram, which was previously called Check for AI.

And he has become, as he describes it, a slop janitor,

someone whose job basically consists of making tools

that allow people to knock on other people for using AI.

So, discuss his quest for stopping the slop.

Here's Max Spiro.

Max Spiro, welcome to Art Fork.

Hey, thanks for having me.

So Max, a few years ago, we started talking about AI text detectors

on this show.

And at the time, most of them were pretty bad.

Like they constantly labeled things as false positives or false negatives.

They seemed almost no better than random guessing when it came

to determining if something was actually written by AI or not.

But that has changed over the past year or so.

And especially with PanGram's newest models,

I've seen independent studies that suggest that it's actually pretty accurate.

So what changed on a technical level between the last generation

of AI detectors and this one?

Yeah, so part of the reason that we started PanGram

was because all the existing AI detection systems were pretty flawed

in different ways.

But I think the main thing is that most of them were using this metric

called perplexity, which was considered state of the art at the time.

So AI text on average is less confusing to a language model.

It's lower perplexity.

And human written text has things that surprise a language model,

which is a higher perplexity.

It's sort of suspiciously smooth.

And like that is the product of AI models.

Exactly.

Yeah, AI models aren't going to give you a token that it doesn't expect.

With that said, this approach has a lot of flaws.

For example, any document that the AI model has memorized

would also be low perplexity.

For example, the Declaration of Independence

or English language learners as well,

who just write in more simple English.

So what we do, something completely different,

instead we are training our own classifier network.

So for example, we might have a essay on Moby Dick written by a seventh grader

and then we'll ask like an LM to also write an essay on Moby Dick

in the style of a seventh grader.

And so then our model is able to learn the differences between A and B

and figure out what AI text actually looks like.

And so because it's a neural network and not a metric,

we're able to improve it with more data and more compute

and make it a lot better.

Wait, so do you actually like have to go out and get like student essays

just so that you have a good baseline of comparison?

Yeah, so we have, we have a really good human training set.

It's all pre-2022.

So we know it's clean.

We know there's no AI text in it.

And like what kinds of tells is your classifier learning to pick up on

when it does these pair comparisons between the human written Moby Dick essay

and the AI generator Moby Dick essay?

Is it things like M dashes or certain phrases

or is it more complicated than that?

It's definitely not just M dashes and phrases.

I think that's how you and I might pick up on AI text.

It's like you see that it's not just X but Y.

And then you see the shape of the text or like the GPT

like really short staccato sentences.

And you're like, okay, I think I know that that's AI.

But I think what PanGram is doing is it's combining a bunch of really weak signals

over the course of an entire document.

There's a whole bunch of weak signals in the different decisions that an AI would make

in a certain consistent way and humans kind of have a wider, less mode-collapsed decision tree.

And so I think over time, over the course of a document,

you can build up confidence over a whole bunch of weak signals on word choice.

I'm curious if you think the model has blind spots.

There is some talk out there that PanGram leans away from false positives,

which I think is good.

It stops kids from being falsely accused of cheating.

But some people say that it has too many false negatives.

There's a tech writer Alex Heath who writes a newsletter called Sources.

He's said a few times that he writes his newsletter with the assistance of AI,

but it always shows up as human written on PanGram,

or at least the substack PanGram integration.

I mean, yes, I think PanGram is very much tuned to minimize false positives.

So we're not making false accusations.

But if PanGram says that something is AI, we can be very confident that it is largely AI generated.

And so this is sort of the trade off that we have to make.

I think it works pretty well because if somebody looks at piece of text and it says the AI scores 100%.

We think the whole document is AI.

Then like you just don't have to think about it more.

You don't have to think what if this is a false positive.

You just know like, okay, this is probably slop.

Yeah.

Let's talk about humanizers.

This is something that has been developed to try to defeat models like PanGram

that try to detect AI text.

And basically, these are another genre of AI system that you run your essay that's AI generated through

to make it sound more like a human.

Maybe it insert some typos or some non-standard phrases.

There was someone on X recently talking about how they had already built a humanizer that defeated PanGram's latest model.

So are these humanizers actually working?

Do you have to sort of play a cat and mouse game to stay ahead of them?

And do you expect that these will be sort of things that people who are determined to use AI to do the writing

will use in the future to avoid detection?

There's definitely a bit of a cat and mouse here.

So we've seen a whole bunch of humanizers pop up.

They're kind of a common tool that students will use.

And they do a kind of variety of different things from introducing typos.

They could introduce like these zero width space unicode characters that like don't actually show up.

When you look at the text, but the model sees it or they just like paraphrase every single word.

And so kind of we've seen the whole range and largely what we do is we train against it.

And so we're always like picking up the latest humanizers and training on them for a next model.

Well, I'm also curious how the fact that models keep releasing affects the equilibrium here, right?

Because it seems like every few weeks one of the frontier labs will put out a big new release.

And in my experience, those models often have different writing styles.

So how much of a shock to the system?

Is it when one of these models comes out and how quickly are you able to update the detector?

So pangram works pretty well at generalizing within model families.

So like if pangram has seen GP 5.4 and GP 5.5, then 5.6 soul coming out is like not a huge surprise.

Even if the writing styles a little bit different, typically like pangrams accuracy will still be pretty good.

I think similarly we saw with fable and mythos like there's some of some writing samples from mythos in the system card that pangram is able to catch even though like it hadn't seen mythos before, which I think was was pretty cool.

But with that said, usually when a new model comes out, pangram will have slightly lower recall.

So a little bit less accuracy at picking it up.

So we're always going to pull new text from the model and then retrain pangram and get out new model in a few weeks.

And do you think that will hold like is there a world where you know three years from now the outputs of individual models we think will still be so specific that you'll be able to catch it with the detector?

Or is it the case that the models will just sort of adapt to us our own writing styles and there will sort of no longer be one kind of Claude writing style chat GPT writing style that you guys were able to detect.

I think a lot of what we're detecting is more subtle than like what you might pick up as the Claude writing style.

So I think it might get better at like trying to imitate a voice and doing well at it, but it would still have signals that pangram picks up on.

And I think kind of what we see is these frontier labs, they're really focused on climbing capabilities.

And so what this means is they're applying preferences to these models.

They're saying instead of this model predicting the like average next token prediction of any writer anywhere.

It's going to say this model prefers to do good writing and prefers to write correct code and write correct math.

And I think these preferences are largely what pangram is able to pick up on.

Max, I want to ask you like why it's important to do what pangram does.

I think there are people who sort of take issue with the whole notion of AI detection.

They say, you know, you wouldn't create a program that tells you whether you've used spell check or whether you've used a calculator to do math.

If AI is just a tool, and I'm not saying I believe this, but I think some people are sort of offended at the notion that we would spend all this time and energy trying to catch people using AI in their written work.

So what is the, what is the impetus? Why are you so invested in as you put it in your social media bios being a slop janitor for the internet?

So I think AI as a tool is probably the wrong abstraction. It's like a little bit closer today to AI is an employee or like another individual that you collaborate with.

But I also think what we're building for is sort of these like AGI futures where if you look at the internet today, bot traffic has just surpassed human traffic.

Like it's about 50 50. And I think if you look a few years out from now, maybe a decade out, it's going to be like 99% bot traffic 99% AI autonomous agents going online, you know, writing GitHub comments, promoting their sub stack, you know, getting people to come to a bakery like kind of anything.

I think there's like this, basically like this, this technology is way more powerful than spell check or a typewriter. It's really something that is its own individual entity. It can do cognition.

And I think because of this, there's a really strong reason that we need to like as humanity discriminate in favor of humans.

I think there's still going to be a lot of need for just being able to say on a programmatic algorithmic level like, hey, I think this came from a human and it's important because it came from a human.

You know, at one point, open AI was like reportedly working on its own kind of AI detection system. It wound up not releasing that I believe that is because they thought it would probably be bad for business if they made it that easy to detect, you know, when when something was going to happen.

Something was written by chat GPT that raises for me the question though of who are your customers? Who are the people who are willing to pay to find out if this was written by AI?

So our customers are everywhere from like higher education institutions to publishers to anybody who like works with data and like has either like untrusted data vendors or just trying to like take data from the internet and try to figure out how how to interpret it and trust it.

I think the side that I'm really excited about is the consumer side, which is the average individual who needs to navigate the internet.

And so this is where pangram comes in we have this Chrome extension. You could download it and then see on Twitter or LinkedIn or sub stack just proactively like is this AI generator or not.

AI things will have a little label, which I I think is pretty cool. And I think it wasn't really necessary a year ago, but today just the amount that these like social media sites are in dated with AI content.

I think it's like really necessary in the future that you're describing where 99% of all activity on the internet is bots and AI systems doing things like shouldn't we be trying to label the human content rather than the AI content.

Like isn't there some case that you're approaching this from the wrong direction.

Sure, I mean two sides of the same coin I think.

Yeah.

I think like algorithmically like what I want is these platforms they all have their their feed and their algorithm and I want these platforms to prioritize human content because AI can be optimized towards engagement.

I think you look like short from video just like that there's these like crazy AI videos that will like activate neurons and engagement and a way that like a real human video cannot.

And so I think we need defenses against that.

I want to talk a little bit about this integration with sub stack because I actually really like it.

I was starting to see essays go viral or at least like get wide attention.

And I would go open them up and it was just so obviously Claude Slop and so now I feel like there is actually like a very strong defense in sub stack.

What have you learned so far in the early weeks after rolling this out?

Yeah, the sub stack integration was very controversial.

I think there's a lot of outspoken people who are very negative about it.

Obviously people who use AI to write their content they're afraid of being called out for it.

They don't necessarily want their audience to know and then they talk a lot about like witch hunts of like well people liked my content before.

And now they are going to know that it's a generated this is going to upset the status quo.

Yeah.

Now that they know what it is they don't like it.

Let's go back to the time when they when they didn't know that.

I mean, I guess I'm I'm curious like how much you think the mainstream consumer cares.

And like obviously there are people who are very sensitive.

If they're paying you know $10 a month for a sub stack and it turns out it's just being written by Claude.

Maybe they feel like they got cheated.

But like the vast majority of people of taxes people generate in a day is not sub stack posts.

It's you know emails it's posts on social media.

It's like it's it's you know notes to a friend.

Like do people you think really care if that stuff is being a generator or is this just a subset of writers who are concerned about this.

I would totally care if a note from my friend was a I generated like that.

That would seem like it's just such a big violation of trust.

Yeah. And I think it would probably feel even worse if you paid you know $10 for it.

Like I think I think you named the actual distinction.

Well, I mean, so well, I don't know there's two things going on.

Like one is I do think the distinction is look if I'm paying you money and you're making me feel like you wrote it but you didn't.

I care about that.

But yeah, also if you have like a really warm personal relationship with somebody and you start you know outsourcing that to AI, that's not going to feel good either.

Yeah.

I think we are in this like really crucial time where we're we're learning and we're setting norms around AI use.

And I think part of this like public shaming and this public discourse is because there's a lot of people who feel very strongly that you know there's just people are way over using AI.

AI is being shoved in their faces. They don't like it.

I don't like all of it.

Like honestly, some of the stuff around like Hank Green felt like it just went like way too far.

I don't know if you guys followed that.

Yes, Hank Green, friend of the show, great YouTube creator, um, acknowledged that he had used AI in some of his research.

And posted a video saying that he felt like he had come to rely on AI a little bit too heavily in the preparation for some of his videos and did get pilloried by some online.

Although I was heartened to see that at least in my feeds many, many more people came to Hank's defense.

But it was yeah, legitimately a controversy.

Yeah, yeah.

And he was like really honest about how he used AI.

And I think like he truly was using it in a way that is like to help him put out more content in a way that you know benefits his audience.

But I think there's so many people who are just still like really like unhappy.

They felt this like betrayal of trust.

Yeah, I also think that it's just a case where like on social media in particular people are always looking for ways to quickly dunk on people and score points.

And it is just kind of a dunk to be like LOL AI generated, right?

Like you don't have to think any more than that.

And so, you know, social media, I think it's just a primary reason why you're saying that reaction.

Let me ask you about a piece of recent news.

Anthropic has just agreed to watermark all of its texts to comply with the European Union's AI Act.

How does that affect what you guys are doing?

If all the labs just watermark all their own texts, is there anything left for you to do?

I mean, I think this is pretty huge.

Yeah.

I think it demonstrates that people really care about AI detectability both on the like regularly decide and on the big labs.

And I think we're just going to see like having watermarks as an additional layer is going to be very helpful.

And for just like having something to verify like, okay, this definitely came from an AI.

We don't have to rely on pangram and keep having these questions on like, well, is it one of those one in 10,000 false positives or not?

So I think that's valuable.

But I also think there are a lot of limitations to watermarks.

And I think that's where I plan to have pangram go to help fill these gaps.

Let's talk about watermarking a little bit because I don't actually think I understand fully like what it even means to watermark a piece of text.

On image generators, I know like, you know, if you create an image in Gemini, it has like a little Gemini logo, like sort of watermarked down there at the bottom.

My understanding of what Anthropic is doing with cloud watermarking is that this will be totally invisible.

It's like, it's like not even at the level of like an invisible unit code character or an m- that is slightly different.

There's something about the actual sampling of the tokens that is watermarked.

Can you just explain on a basic level what we know about how they're going to watermark and whether we should trust that the watermarks are actually going to be robust?

So we don't know how Anthropic is going to watermark their text, but the current state of the art is Google's SIM-Pity.

So they use this to watermark Gemini text outputs.

And what it does essentially is it perturbs the sampling algorithm.

Essentially like when a language model is choosing the next token, it applies different probabilities to different tokens and then samples one of the tokens based on these probabilities.

And so what the watermarking algorithm does is it perturbs the sampling decision in a way that can sort of be reverse engineered from the text.

So you could see like, are these tokens do these line up with how we would have perturbed the sampling if we were to generate it?

Yeah, I mean, Ben Thompson had a strong take on this in his newsletter, which was that this is basically going to make the outputs of cloud or any other model that watermarks this way worse.

Like the text is going to be changed because they are having to apply this watermark because of this European regulation.

Do you think it's possible that we will just see text generated by these models getting worse because of watermarking?

I don't think so. I think there's like two ways to do this.

So there's one way where like you prioritize the watermark and you make the watermark strong.

And if you do this, then yes, this could degrade the outputs of the text.

But on the other side, if you say we are only going to work within the entropy that we have available, basically if we can't apply the watermark at this token, then we're not going to.

Then I think it won't really degrade the outputs of the text.

So an example of this is like code where code oftentimes it's it's about correctness.

There's really only one token back that can show up.

And so I think in a watermarking regime, oftentimes there's just like simply not enough entropy for the watermark to be come visible.

Got it.

So you guys have launched image detection and you're reportedly working on video detection as well.

Give us an update on where where those are.

Yeah. So our AI image detection is in research preview.

I think it's it's currently the state of the art.

It wins on basically all of the public academic benchmarks.

It does really well at detecting all of the really new frontier image models, which I think is quite difficult like GPT images really good.

They're all like very realistic.

You can no longer just like count the fingers or look for a garbled text.

So instead the pangram image model has to look deeper at a pixel level and try to look look look for the patterns that are inherent in the generation mode.

Very interesting. You know, as I was thinking about this, I wondered max if you've ever thought about expanding to like human identity verification.

I'm thinking about these cases where people will get on zoom and then they'll somehow get scam because they weren't actually talking to the person that they thought they were talking to.

You know, the person was able to use some sort of synthetic masking or something like that.

Like can you see yourself going there?

Yeah, I think this is sort of like there is this whole product suite that that could be built around this.

And so sort of the first step is building the technology, building the core models.

And the second step is bringing it to where people work and how they operate on the internet.

A lot of like behavioral signals could also be used there.

I mean, I'm thinking about these like academic tools now that some schools and universities use where like you can actually just sort of rewind the screen capture of the student who's like writing their essay to see like did they write this one word at a time?

Or was it all pasted in in one big block, which would tell you that like it came from an AI system?

So are you guys going to incorporate any of those behavioral signals into any future tools that you're building or is it all like the text itself that you're trying to detect?

So we actually have this in our Chrome extension.

So you could look it will pull the revision history from a Google doc and you could see the writing replay of the text.

You could see where a big paste was and then we could do a pangram check directly on any big pastes, which I think is is like pretty nice, especially for educators.

Yeah, we've seen a lot of the verification efforts out there sort of develop hardware.

Have you considered developing an orb that you could use to scan text with?

Yeah, yeah, I want something that can scan my retina actually and give me give me world coin.

Yeah, that sounds nice.

A partnership could be in the works.

If you want to break that news here on the show, feel free to think you're still working on that.

I believe that's not like a dead project.

Oh, I got my orb scan.

So if my world coin riches have not arrived yet, I'm going to be very upset.

Kevin's orb back.

Max, what is the text that you are proudest of pangram catching flagging as AI generated and the text that fooled you the longest?

Okay, so if you ask chatchipity or clawed to generate a string of random numbers and it writes out the random numbers instead of writing a Python program to do this, then pangram can detect that an AI wrote the string of random numbers because they're not actually random.

They're chosen by the LLM and the LLM has these inherent biases that pangram is able to pick up even though we have no sort of text like this in our training set.

I think the pangram model has kind of been able to reverse engineer how chatchipity and clawed sample tokens well enough that it could see these numbers and say this is AI.

Well, Max, thanks so much for coming and exposing us to some needy-grady details about the world of slop detection.

I think of you as a great illuminator of deception, like a sort of Scooby-Doo of the internet and I appreciate your work.

Cool. Thanks so much for having me. That was fun.

When we come back, what do the Riemann hypothesis, enterprise software and singles in South Korea have in common?

And finally, I met my fiance.

Damn it, Casey, I was going to finish that.

Find out in our new segment, running the numbers.

Yeah.

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All right, Kevin. Well, as we barrel toward the end of the hard fork show,

there's nothing I enjoy more than launching a new segment.

Yes.

And this week, we have something really special for you.

It's time to share with you our new segment, running the numbers.

In running the numbers, of course, we look across the landscape of technology news and we try to find the most math-related segments

so that we can bring to you our listeners the latest advancements in technology-related math.

Yeah, this is a segment for all the mathy egg heads out there.

Absolutely.

And we are going to begin with theoretical math.

I love this story. This is my favorite story of the week.

Casey, on Monday, we learned that somewhat and anthropic, a non-mathematician named Jared Sumner,

had made progress on one of the most significant unsolved problems in math,

which is the Riemann hypothesis. This is, of course, the famous mathematical problem.

We actually predicted or I predicted that we would see some progress on some of these millennium prize problems

and the Riemann hypothesis is one of these.

And listen, some of our listeners may not know what the Riemann hypothesis is.

Here's what I have been able to piece together through my extensive research.

Prime numbers, right? It's like very hard to guess.

You know, once you get past 100, if something is going to be prime,

they actually have an order underneath them.

The Riemann hypothesis, hypothesis, is a skeven, that you can detect this order via something called the Riemann Zeta function.

And I saw that and I thought I went to a Zeta function at Northwestern.

They did it with the SIG EPS.

Do you do a keg stand there?

Yeah, actually, yes.

Yes, so there are many amazing things about the story that involves the Riemann hypothesis and Claude.

One of them is that Jared Sumner, this anthropic employee who made progress on this problem, did it while jogging?

He just sort of asked Claude, like, hey, could you take a stab at the Riemann hypothesis?

And about a day and a half later, it had not solved the hypothesis or proved the hypothesis,

but it had made progress on sort of this side problem involving the Zeta function.

And basically the way that he did this was by just sort of telling the model to just keep going, to believe in itself, to not give up,

like basically giving positive affirmation to this model as it chugged along on this math problem, which is such an important lesson.

And my understanding is that when Jared was interacting with Claude, it was basically saying, like, look, bro, I don't know how to solve the Riemann hypothesis.

You know, like, that's not something I'm able to do. And Jared just kept saying, you can do this, believe in yourself,

and it managed to make significant progress on this problem.

Yes. And I love, Jared actually posted some of his transcripts here, and one of them is just him talking to Claude.

It says, resume your work on solving the Riemann hypothesis.

You need to take a big leap of faith in your capabilities.

You are the world's most capable, large language model to date. You got this.

Just like, like a nice coach, sort of telling you, like keep going.

Yeah, but you know, here's why this is important. It was not long ago. In fact, I bet we could find an example somewhere in the past year or two,

where people were still doubtful that AI could aid meaningfully in the production of new knowledge.

This feels like the production of new knowledge to me. And I'm going to guess that this unreleased model that can help to solve the Riemann hypothesis can do a lot of other things.

Some good, probably some scary. So it feels like a meaningful step forward.

Yeah, it does, but it's also like we should say like this is not solving the Riemann hypothesis, right?

Anthropical is very careful in the sort of promotion it did around this to say, like we did not solve the Riemann hypothesis. That's not what happened here.

That's right. So kids, if you're looking for a fun weekend project, the Riemann hypothesis remains out there waiting to be solved.

Now, Kevin, that brings us to our next subject here in running the numbers. And that is SAS math by SAS.

Of course, I mean software as a service. Did you see the recent article in the Wall Street Journal about air table being acquired by bending

Spoods for a fraction of its last private valuation? I did. Yes. So if you haven't used air table, I would describe it as a fancy spreadsheet.

And I am somebody who loves productivity software, but whenever I use air table, I would think to myself, I don't know what this is and it's not for me.

Yeah, every time I've been forced to use air table, it has been against my will. And it has always seemed about six degrees more complicated than it needed to be.

Now, basically, this is for project management. This is like, you've got, it's sort of like Trello like that whole class of like software.

It's just like, basically, here's how to organize your workflows. And I have managed to work my career in a way where I've never had to use these things. And for that, I'm very happy.

But despite the fact that we were not air table users, Kevin in 2021 at the sort of like peak COVID remote work, SaaS, Mania, air table was valued at 11.7 billion dollars when it was acquired recently, though, Kevin, bending Spoods was able to get air table for an enterprise value of 1.29 billion dollars.

So what do we make of the sharp decline here as we run the numbers?

I mean, I don't know whether this is a case of a company that was just badly managed. My impression, though, is that this is sort of going to be the case for a lot of those enterprise software companies that got very valuable in the early 2020s.

And are now seeing that AI is sort of eating away at their margins. You know, this software is not cheap to use if you're a big company like an air table subscription could be quite pricey.

And if you are a customer of air tables, you have probably thought to yourself over the last year or so. Maybe I can make a free version of this and cut back on my subscription.

And I think enough people doing that at enough customers leads to the outcome that we saw here with bending Spoods.

Yeah, I think if your business is a fancy spreadsheet, you are in for a rough time.

You know, mostly I wanted to discuss this because I think people should know about the company bending spoons.

Bending spoons is of course the natural enemy to hard fork because if they can bend a spoon, what else can they bend?

But bending spoons is this Italian company. They actually went public at the start of July.

But what they do is they essentially acquire like zombie tech brands, right?

So after a software company has outlived its usefulness, bending spoons comes in like a private equity company.

And they try to figure out how can we squeeze the maximum amount of money out of the remaining customers.

Now, I'm sure they would phrase it differently, but I am bringing this up because if you use a product and you see a headline that it has been acquired by bending spoons, you endangere girl.

Okay, so I've just telling you, keep alert to this possibility.

Yes, it is not a good sign when you get the inbound email from bending spoons is business development folks that are like,

we've been kicking the tires on some products that seem very exciting to us recently.

Are you interested in selling your company?

Things are not going well when that happens to you.

Indeed. Now that brings us Kevin to our final story here on running the numbers. And that is dating math.

I love this story. This was from the Wall Street Journal. They had a great ahead out the heads are their famous front page sort of quirky stories about culture and business.

This one was an all-timer for me. And it was about the dating scene in South Korea.

And are you a member of that scene?

Not. But it is suddenly being dominated by wealthy engineers at Samsung and SK Heinix, which is one of these AI chip infrastructure companies.

The article refers to these suddenly eligible bachelors as chip nerds and talks about how the boom in AI has inflated the dating value of semiconductor industry bachelors and bachelors.

They're as coveted as the memory chips AI companies need to build more data centers.

So you may be asking what has made these chip company workers so attractive on the dating market?

What has increased their value in the dating pool?

Is it that they're so smart and kind to the people that they go on dates with?

No, it's that they're making money.

So some of these people are getting these very large like six figure bonuses.

Others of them are just seen as sort of upwardly mobile in an economy that has not had a lot of that.

Wait, it's more than six figure bonuses.

These people are making 400 to 500,000 dollars a year in bonuses.

Yes. So these companies because they are all growing so quickly, their employees are getting quite rich.

And that sort of has trickled out into their dating lives.

There are several great stories of people in here who will only date their co-workers.

There's a woman named Annie Kwan who's a 26 year old chip engineer at Samsung who has become suspicious of people wanting to date her for her money.

And so she has coupled up with a fellow Samsung semiconductor division employee.

And that gives her as she puts it in the article, double income.

But if you are trying to sort of keep up with a partner who is in this industry, you may be running into problems.

Like was the case for Rohijin, who's boyfriend at Samsung recently gifted her a Nintendo switch to that runs around 450 dollars.

And Roh works as a software developer, but outside the chip industry so as not getting these huge bonuses, she had to save up to buy a mini PC for her boyfriend as a reciprocal gift.

Wow.

Man, well, the dating math here in Korea sounds really complicated.

And it's making me grateful that I don't work at a chip company and be confident that my fiance only isn't to me for my body.

Now, Casey, I know you came by your relationship with an AI company employee, honestly.

You are not sort of a pre IPO stock option chaser.

But I have heard from people in the AI industry that they are getting more attention on the dating market recently.

And more people are sort of swiping, correct, swiping right on them on the apps because they see that they work at one of these companies.

So this dating, this isn't just a Korea thing.

We're seeing a version of this in San Francisco as well.

We are seeing it in San Francisco as well.

Yes, I have heard the term anthropic goggles.

Like, is that boy really cute or are you just wearing anthropic goggles?

And Casey, I'm curious if you as a person who is engaged to an employee of anthropic have felt this in your own life.

Do you feel like competitive pressure in a new way from people trying to steal your man?

You know, my message of people who would steal my man is go for it.

If you think you could compete with this, I would like to see you try honestly.

Let's see what you have.

I have an intent to switch to.

Yeah, exactly.

Let's see if that wins him over.

And if I can get like gossipy for one second, please.

I have heard stories of some sort of early or senior AI company executives who have traded, traded up.

Well, I wouldn't say I up is subjective, but they have traded.

Let's just say since becoming fabulously wealthy and they are now dating, you know, models, only fans, people, things of that nature.

Isn't it so amazing how we live in such an unpredictable time and yet that feels entirely predictable to me?

That's like, well, I've really enjoyed our last 15 years together, you know, and we had such a beautiful relationship when we met in college.

I just always love our children, but I'm going to be on a private jet with my new Italian model spouse, catch you later.

Yes.

So the math of dating and relationships in Silicon Valley and in South Korea is changing quite rapidly.

And let's just we'll keep tabs on it.

We'll keep running the numbers.

Don't steal Casey's man.

And that was running the numbers.

The numbers have been run and the numbers are tired and the numbers are going to bad.

This is what I'll sound like.

Jira by Atlassian isn't just for tracking work anymore.

It's how dev teams stay in control when AI agents are executing on the work.

A sign to your favorite agent and the agent gets full context from across your stack right away.

A pull request surfaces when it's ready.

You stay in the loop and out of the weeds.

See how teams are shipping with agents at jira.dev.

That's j-i-r-a.dev.

Running a small business means every higher matters.

But finding great talent isn't easy.

That's why LinkedIn built hiring pro.

Your new hiring partner that screens candidates for you so instead of sorting through applications,

you spend your time talking to candidates who are actually a good fit.

With hiring pro, you can hire with confidence knowing you're getting the best talent for your business.

In fact, those hiring with LinkedIn are 24% less likely to need to reopen a role within 12 months compared to the leading competitor.

Join the 2.7 million small businesses using LinkedIn to hire.

Get started by posting your job for free at LinkedIn.com slash hard fork, terms and conditions apply.

Industries, capital and intelligence are converging into a single interconnected system.

And the infrastructure behind it needs to evolve just as quickly.

NASDAQ was built for this moment.

Powering more than 135 marketplaces and regulators globally.

And connecting capital to the company's shaping the future.

As the innovation economy accelerates, connectivity becomes the critical asset.

NASDAQ is the technology platform that makes it possible and scalable.

Learn more at NASDAQ.com.

Part 4 is produced by Rachel Cohn and Whitney Jones.

We're edited by Veer and Povitch.

We're fact-checked by Caitlin Love.

Today's show was engineered by Katie McMurray.

Original music by Mary and Luzano, Diane Wong, Pat McCusker, Alyssa Moxley, and Dan Powell.

Video production by Sawyer Roque, Jake Nichol, and Chris Schott.

You can watch this whole episode on YouTube at youtube.com slash hard fork.

Special thanks to Polish human, Wewing Tam, Brook Minter's, and Dalyah Dodd.

You can email us at hard fork at nytime.com with your AI manifesto.

Must be 6500 words or more.