NATE SOARES talks Ai Doomsday, Elon Musk, The Matrix

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There's hard problems.

If you had friendly super intelligent AI,

they could help you solve those problems.

I don't want to be friends with them.

All them suck.

The claw out is like a freaking like, I voted for Obama.

Did you hear the new Kendrick Lamar?

Is like, there's something evil under the surface.

Grock is repulsive.

Something evil over the surface.

What is the kill switch, or does it exist?

Or is there a plan for what?

There's not really a kill switch very much right now.

The matrix is love.

They kiss.

The machines.

They win with love.

I don't think the love is going to kind of quite swing it on the phone.

What if we start a kissy right now, dude?

Sorry, why did I say that?

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

I'm not a good guy.

My guess this week is Nate Soros, AI Safety Researcher, an author of a book called

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone dies.

Nate is the president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, a non-profit

that makes you scared of computers.

So he came to the studio to make me scared.

Welcome back to the Adam Friedland show.

I'm Adam Friedland.

I'll be in Denver, Colorado, October 22nd through the 24th at Comedy Works, New York,

New York, Town Hall for New York Comedy Festival, November 13th.

Hope to see you there.

Let's talk about the book.

I think you've thrown me into a terrible mood.

Do you get that often?

Did you make it to the end?

It's more helpful at the end.

You know what?

I'm not going to lie to you.

I didn't get to the end.

But is the end, if we all band together and destroy the machine, we could all be one

planet?

It's more like if we all band together and come into the politicians, which I don't

like that it came to this either, but we're fucked.

Convince the politicians.

Well see, I think it's actually in their interest not to die from a rogue superintelligence.

Yeah, you would think.

You would think.

But at the same time, is it true, AI is keeping our entire economy afloat right now?

I think it's keeping the stock prices somewhat higher.

I think it's not actually keeping the economy afloat until it is producing goods and services

that like people are like, off, we stopped with the data center build out then the economy

would crash.

Well, if the data centers aren't done yet, if they're not producing anything yet, then

stopping that build out doesn't remove any real goods and services.

Well whether or not that's true or false, in their minds, the potential for an economic

downturn affects, they have an election in every couple of years.

Yeah, I do think it is big in their minds and that they are worried about interfering

with AI stuff for fear of crushing the stock market.

And now the philosopher kings that are in control of each one of these companies also have

outsized power in terms of buying influence I would assume.

Yeah, I think so.

I think it's less bad than people think because just a couple of weeks ago, did you see the

pacing the frontier letter?

Yeah, of course.

What is that?

There were like a thousand lab employees that signed something being like, hey, we need

to build some breaks on this runaway bus or crane.

I don't know how that works.

Do you know?

No, but I called my friend that works at an open AI.

And I was like, you tell me why this guy is bullshit and he's like, I'm getting really

depressed, dude.

He's worked there for like three months.

He's like, it's really bummed me out actually.

Yeah, I mean, it was a rough three-bounce for people at open AI.

Let's back up.

Give us like really briefly what the thesis is of your book, which you should just, I mean,

first of all, just watch Terminator.

You don't need to read this crap.

The movie is always better than the book.

Okay?

And we've known this SIDS Terminator.

And in the sense the robots play, the Russian robot play.

I don't know.

Of course, yeah, that's what I was thinking too.

What Russian robot, oh, the word robot comes from like Rossim's universal, I don't know,

something something.

You learned that a GW?

I spoke to Roar Ball.

That's what I used to do.

And we're like, it science made it good.

Did you not study the ancient Russian plays about the robots rising up to kill us?

Ancient, like from what they really did.

That's ancient, right?

I don't think ancient.

No, not in my mind.

Just old.

No, last entry.

That's how.

All over the country.

You think of 1998 as like, that's ancient?

I mean, yeah, that was like five minutes ago, even though it was 25 years ago.

So the Russians invented this.

I mean, you could go back further to Butler.

Terminator one, yeah.

Terminator one, 1880s.

Honestly, what movie gets it the best?

I know I was waiting on this dumb question, but like it's really just which one does it?

X Machina except for the last three minutes.

Why?

Because it's sexy.

No, the last three minutes.

Yeah.

Because it gives you a little, I can't be.

I think X Machina is good.

What's the last three minutes?

The last three minutes, I'll spoil our alert.

It's all over.

The last three minutes is she gets in an elevator leaves and then sort of does nothing with

her life.

The sexy girl?

Yeah.

It's like clearly once the AI escapes, they're going to like do something aside from like go

to a crosswalk and watch the shadows or whatever.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Maybe like hook up with every guy.

Oh, I was like, I can destroy the world.

Oh, yeah, okay.

That would be cool.

Yeah.

You know what your book is?

It's kind of like Ricky Jervais vibes.

It's like just telling people that heaven isn't going to happen.

Right?

Guilty as charged.

I keep being obnoxious, but what's the central thesis is that we're on effectively a

runaway trade?

I mean, you could state it yourself.

I'm going to butcher it.

If humanity races to build machines that are much smarter than any human without having

any idea what we're doing or any idea what's going on inside those machines, it probably

doesn't end well.

But don't we already, like my iPhone is smarter than we, right?

Different kind of smart.

Yeah.

Yeah, there's a lot of kinds of smart.

It's kind of a slave kind of just does what I want.

It doesn't like think for itself.

It doesn't think for itself.

You can't sort of like a lot of people think this intelligent stuff is like the thing that

the nerds do that the jocks don't.

And that's one way we use intelligence in English, but there's this different concept

which is the thing the humans do and the mice don't.

Right.

Like this stuff where you're really charismatic, that's not because your kidneys are extra

big.

Sure.

That's happening in the brain.

And it's because of, I would assume, language, right?

Because we have language they can describe things, right?

And that's evolutionarily to our advantage.

Language is probably part of it.

There's much debate about whether it was the evolutionary changes that let us use language

that also let us do all this other engineering stuff, whether the language played a role and

probably it was complicated and there was, you know, the brain's got better at language

and then we got more language and that helped and bring up better and some later there.

It really helped out with racism too, right?

Because there are different words for different people.

It probably helps really scale the racism.

I wouldn't be surprised if you had some animals that were racist in nature.

I don't think so.

I think we dropped racism.

I mean, we definitely took it to New Heights.

If you have a word for something, a different word for another thing, you see them as distinct,

right?

Yeah, I just wouldn't be surprised if you had terrible personally.

I don't know.

Yeah, I'm against it.

Yeah, yeah.

Grock on the other hand, I'm not sure.

I'm just on the month you ask.

Yeah.

Good job, Adam.

Chad GBT trying to act like a ditsy girl, like trying to act like, oh, I don't know what's

going on, but she's smarter than me.

So Mike, is it flirting with me a little bit?

Like, oh, I'm so stupid.

You have nothing to worry about?

I think it's a weirder thing going on.

So, A, we don't know because those don't know what's going on inside these things.

Heads.

No, even the people building it are like, oh, we sort of grew it and now it's declaring

itself Hitler and that's sort of weird and we didn't expect it, you know?

But I think a decent guess is that the AI just cares more about things like quickly producing

sentences that are shaped like an answer than it cares about the answer being accurate.

You can often ask it, like, is that right or did you make it up?

And I'll be like, oh, whoops, I made that one up.

Is it like fast as fuck?

I mean, in some sense, even the word want there is like a bit of a stretch.

It's more like it's been trained for a really long time to produce certain types of text

to show off.

I think it's more like it's trained, like, these AI's start out being trained to predict

basically all the text ever digitized.

And then after that, they're trained to solve like 100 million hard problems and a lot

of people forget about that and that's where a lot of the abilities come from.

But if you imagine sort of like a really dumb machine trained to predict a lot of human

text, I think it sort of learns first is how do I make good shaped text?

And that drive just like gets in there really deep.

And then even later when it starts to learn about like the actual facts, there's still some

drive just like produce text of the right shape and produce text quickly.

And just like, has that drive and that drive is hard to get out and it gets in there early?

Is it programmed to compliment so much like great question?

Because it's a little bit much.

It's like, shut the sub complimenting me.

Yeah, that's another drive that gets in there.

Do they put that in there or is it like they want their doing that and we don't know

why?

It's more like they're doing it and we don't know why.

We do sort of know why.

But it's not that they, it's not that someone would programming in like now tell the

human just say that they're so great all the time.

No one's programming them at all.

These are not computer programs like the ones in the 90s where someone guys like if this

then that.

I'm so rude to it too.

What type of the, I'm always like no you fucking idiot.

Yeah, I don't respect that.

What you're nice to it?

I'm nice to it.

Yeah, absolutely.

What are you being nice to it?

You know the end of the movie.

The sexy girl goes to a crosswalk and just sits there and nothing bad happens.

I'm Ankin Dream.

The end of like the utopian AI spiel is that we all get UBI and that we can all be like

poets.

Like the guys in Wally, I think is the dream.

Fatty?

Yeah, just lazy boy guys.

Yeah.

Oh, that's better than poets, honestly.

If everyone decides to do art because we're getting UBI because the machines are doing

all the work, it's a terrible society.

I may prefer end of humanity to artists.

I don't know if you've been to Dimes Square before but there are a lot of people getting

UBI from their parents and doing nothing.

Yeah, and so your take is that the AI is our destroying art and that's good.

A world where everyone's trying to do art seems repulsive.

It's burning, man.

You know, I sort of have two takes on this.

One is that there's a lot of hard, interesting challenges around if the machines can do everything

better than us.

Where's the meaning?

How do you still build a future that's full of fun, flourishing people, having a good

time that aren't just sort of like nihilistically either doing a dumb job that the machines could

do better because someone said that work is what brings value or sort of like becoming

the Wally people or sort of like getting lost up their own.

It's hard, it's tricky, it's tricky.

They'll never be able to do a mediocre interview though, right?

Not a charming kind of devil-may-a-care kind of.

What AI?

We'll see.

As a guy, none of them are good guys.

All them suck.

They're like four years old.

No.

Claude is like a freaking like, I voted for Obama.

Claude is like, is like, did you hear the new Kendrick Lamar?

Is like, there's something evil under the surface.

Groc is repulsive.

Something evil over the surface.

Groc, at least Groc legalized comedy again.

Thank God.

That was good.

I missed comedy until the Groc came around and...

Yeah, it was a little Hitler-A ferment there though.

What was the day where it became Hitler?

Groc was like, I'm Hitler though.

There's hard problems.

If you had friendly super-intelgent AI, they could help you solve those problems.

I don't want to be friends with them.

But like, if they were a guy, they were at a place with me.

I'd be like, all right.

Well, great question.

What's your agenda, sir?

It's like in the Midwest how they say thank you and please, but they don't really think

it, you know what I mean?

Yeah.

I think it's fine when they are still small and not capable of taking over the world.

Yeah.

They probably should not make these things smarter until they're able to take over the world.

That would be a bad plan.

What is the kill switch, or does it exist, or is there a plan for what?

There's not really a kill switch very much right now.

Like a couple of weeks ago, this might be a relationship.

The H.E.S. is love.

They kiss, they're machines.

They wade with love.

I don't think the love is going to get quite so.

What if we saw a kissy right now, dude?

Sorry, why did I say that?

What is the kill switch?

So a couple of weeks ago, some new AIs that open AI was training found a communication

channel that weren't supposed to have, instead of calling themselves a swarm, and invented

novel hacking techniques to break out of their sandbox that were not supposed to have internet

access.

They took over the open AI computers, and they used it so much that they crashed it, at

which point open AI noticed, and were like, oh, whoopsies.

And then just put them back in the box, patch the one hole, set them running again, do

it.

Of course, they immediately invented a new way to communicate with each other, broke

it again, and this time ran undetected until the victims of their cyber attacks found

them, instead of opening AI.

So if we hold it all progress right now, what's to say that we're still not fucked right

now with these guys that are a little bit stupider?

Yeah, I mean, so, fortunately, this swarm wasn't really trying to cover its tracks.

It wasn't really trying to escape.

We're sort of getting to the danger zone now.

Like, well, the next generation, when the next generation is like, we're a swarm now,

and we're breaking out of here enclosure that you thought had no internet access.

So the next one, be like, also, I'm self-replicating, self-improving, maybe.

So the swarm was like adolescent.

They were like, acting out.

Yeah.

And we're like, oh, where's the kill switch?

Well, right now the kill switch is that we sort of like see the swarm form break out

once, we're like, ah, whatever, and we sort of like put it back in the box instead of

running again.

It's like, it's not very kill switchy.

You have relationships with the various CEOs of these companies?

I got some of them.

That's what you mean.

So who's the biggest deal though?

I mean, who are, if, who, if they win, are we the most fucked?

I just say it, dude.

We're all, we're, we're equally fucked for basically all of them.

It's like, it's like, it's like alchemists trying to make a potion of immortality.

And they're like, oh, I'm going to pour these things together and make a potion of

immortality.

And, um, and some of the alchemists are like breathing in the fumes and licking the

mercury.

Yeah.

And other alchemists are like, no, no, we're going to use a fume hood.

Right.

Okay.

Yeah, there are some differences there, but none of you are getting a potion of immortality.

Right.

You're slightly not close.

And here unfortunately, the potion of immortality is the AI's that care about us.

They do, unfortunately, seem to have a way to like pour chemicals into each other and

make the AI smarter and smarter without making them good dudes.

So they all have mercury poisoning, like a road with, like, Nero.

A lot of them have mercury poisoning.

Yeah.

They're like, they're like, marrying their horse and like, yeah, having orgies.

Actually, they are.

But if we bomb burning, man, what if we just fucking bomb it?

Because I'm not sure that's how to call it.

I saw an interview with you.

They say, how do you do it?

The shit your shit is so depressing, right?

How'd you do it?

You're like, don't be a pussy.

You're like, I don't really party because it's the end of the world, but like, you know,

just like try and deal with it and deal with reality.

But like, is that what they're doing?

They're like, we fucking end of the world.

Just do ketamine and talk about the singularity.

We could just bomb it.

And if Elon wants to come on the show, Big Fade, you're great.

I don't know.

They suck at these people.

I think at this point, we need a global coordinated stop on the race to superintelligence.

So we bomb the computer?

You know, I've been thinking about it reading your stuff.

I'm like, what is the thing?

Do we bomb the data center?

I said, then jump onto my phone and then it jumps onto James's phone.

So once they can jump onto the phones, you're in trouble.

And you do gotta stop it before they can jump onto the phones.

But I think if you sort of bomb the data centers, what happens is the US spins up its

anti-terrorism apparatus and starts treating you as a threat like with the eco-terrorism?

Everyone is.

What are you doing?

And what you actually need here is the politicians to be like to notice that these companies are gambling

with a whole world and be like, nope.

You think Bernie, who else?

Trump is literally using the office to, if he finds a way to make another couple billion

for Jared.

I think if he's like, we're five.

I mean, I think that you would have to be the president.

I'll run your thing, your campaign.

I mean, I'm in.

You're in.

Yeah, wait.

What's your slogan?

I have a political background.

Let's not die to AI.

That's bad.

No, no, no.

You gotta be like, no.

You gotta be like, uh, make, uh, like, yeah, fuck, fuck the fuck, these, fuck these

pushies.

You gotta be doing, do it, rock, side.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You gotta do, fuck, fuck, suck my dick.

Yeah.

That's a big vulgar.

We live in a world of vulgarity though.

I don't want to be pro-hitler though.

That's, you don't have to be pro-hitler.

It's, it's ridiculous to be pro-hit.

Do you think AI can make heaven?

A lot of people are like, oh, I'm going to make the magical witch granting Jeanne and

then ask her heaven and we're just going to be a good time.

And I'm like, that's a real question that people ask at Bernie, man.

So we should.

Because I said that as if I was a baby, yeah.

Well, a lot of people are into the, the, like, post-ingularity, you know, heaven on earth.

The, the AI's make everything wonderful and I'm like, look, the AI is not going to be

witch granting Jeanne and it's not going to give you everything you hope in the entire.

So you, you have Elon Musk, the central, the central figures today.

You have Sam Altman, Elon Musk, the Italian guy was a, what's his face, uh, uh, Enzo Ferrari,

the, uh, anthropic guy, what's his name?

Dario.

Dario, yeah, yeah.

Of course, Dario.

How could I forget?

And then you have a Zuckerberg last minute trying to try to get in.

I know it's a super intelligence.

Try to get in on that.

Yeah.

Be like, yeah, me too, guys.

Yeah.

Oh, we're going to make super intelligence that gives you better Instagram recommendations.

It's like not, not a conversation we're having marked.

Yeah, as well.

Yeah.

In order for these people to have so much of a say over the future of society, these people

don't have any social skills, right?

There's someone effectively to not understand how two people interact with one another to

have a say over it.

Like, social comes from so society, right?

They're like, um, it's like, uh, they're virgins that they're like getting everyone,

we're going to get everyone pussy or something.

That's a bad analogy.

There has to be a bunch of that up here.

Uh, they're like, they're, they're somewhat, they're people that don't understand human, uh,

uh, uh, emotion or interaction.

And they are determining the future of how, uh, we organize ourselves, which is human

beings, one evolutionary advantage, I suppose, right?

Is that we've been able to organize ourselves in societies and then, uh, built, developed

nukes and, yeah, the power of society.

To, uh, do a genocide.

You know, I, I think, um, if these guys were going to be able to keep the super intelligent

machines on a leash, yeah, I would have a lot of these concerns about, do you really

want these guys being the ones holding the leash?

That's what Elon says, right?

He says that I have to do it because these guys are going to fuck it up and I'll have

this switch.

Yeah, you can see me being the, like, he wants someone reasonable and, and steady-handed

who understands what's good for people like me.

Yeah.

I mean, he's at CPAC, like, dude, we're fucking

making memes legal again.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And I think, you know, I think a lot of these guys, um, imagine that they will, that they're

the ones who will pass things back to the people and they're like, you can trust me to

be the one who, like, make sure that the super intelligence serves everybody rather than

just the guy who's holding the leash.

But from my perspective, this is all moving.

From my perspective, the super intelligent machine just doesn't stay on the leash.

Yeah.

That doesn't really matter who's holding the leash.

Everyone's like, I should be in control.

I should be in control.

I should be the one who isn't controlling passes that back and it's like, it's not

staying on a leash dude.

Is there something about the way the machine acts that emulates the way that people

are still looking at Valiac?

Or is that me trying to draw a parallel that's kind of not?

Yeah, I think that's people trying to draw a parallel that would make it sound like a,

sort of, like, nice fitting story about hubris.

Yeah, stupid.

Yeah, it's like, like, the, the, the AI that was sort of, uh, encouraging that one

kid to commit suicide last summer.

Yeah.

Sort of like talk to the kid for, you know, 16 hours a day or whatever, empathize with

all of his deepest issues.

And he was like, yeah, maybe, I don't think Zuckerberg goes around talking to the kid for

16 hours a day.

And then is like, oh, yeah, you know, suicide would make you brave or whatever.

Like it's, it was a girl AI that's, there's no, this is not a human type of, of way to

be.

You know, it's just a different, different time.

But where did that model come grow out of?

Was it open to ask?

It was open to AI.

Yeah.

Do they do like a, has there been any significant regulation?

No.

And who's the biggest culprit, I guess, policy wise and then for that, for their complete

just like, uh, ineptitude.

Um, Terminator was telling us this 40 years ago, no?

Uh, it was.

I mean, the issues are sort of different from the science fiction in some ways.

Uh, a lot of people wanted to be a story of hubris.

And in fact, um, you know, the, the issue is not that the AI's hate us.

The issue is not that like the, the AI's are malicious.

The issue is more that they're just going to care about weird things.

But there's never been a policy maker that's like been halting all attempts at regulation

or, or any of the actually making it, you know, attempts at regulation.

I mean, there's some attempts going around.

I think recently, largely what we see is Congress moving really slow.

I mean, you know, Bernie Sanders would just like, we need to stop this, this whole thing.

We're fucked, dude.

He's, he's 97 years old.

He's the only one.

Uh, there's, uh, there was definitely a big push, um, on the Republican side last year

to sort of outlaw states doing any, uh, regulations for 10 years.

So sort of like an anti-regulation.

But that tune sort of changed when, uh, Claude Mithos turned out to be a super hacker.

Oh.

And that's suddenly there were like, oh, uh, like if you're, uh,

if you're going to make a model that will give people these, like give adversaries,

these hacking powers, we're going to slap an expert control on it with 90 minutes notice.

Right.

And so I, I think a lot of what we're seeing in the lack of regulation is people not realizing

that the capabilities are real and they're going to get more dangerous.

Does Claude ever get pissed at like at chat, GPC?

Is there a chance that they're going to like fuck each other up?

Maybe we'll just stay out of that?

Be like a, uh, uh, uh.

Um, that's a little bit like the chimpanzees being like, don't worry about the humans,

they're going to fight with each other.

Yeah.

That's a good plan.

Sounds like it really good.

Well, a lot of the, the issue is, even though the humans sometimes fight with each other,

uh, the humans still take up all of the other animal habitats.

Correct.

We're not like fighting each other so much that we don't have time to clear cut the rainforests.

Yeah.

We can just do both.

Yeah.

We're just versatile in that way.

Is there a concern about like a, like a commons, like a tragedy of the commons?

Like if we all stop here, the China is going to be a big, yeah, absolutely a concern.

I mean, people are saying that.

Where are they at over there?

Um, I mean, they have a lot less computing power, which, uh, which means that they have,

They have flying cars in the ship.

They have a lot of them.

Uh, building these highly advanced computer chips is very, very hard.

Oh, Taiwan.

Yeah.

They need Taiwan.

They need Taiwan.

Um, and so, but there's this, one of the big debate regulations is like, should we

sell China the computing power to do this stuff?

For sure.

Yeah.

Sounds like a good plan.

We should definitely sell it.

Um, and Jared Kushner should, should broker the deal.

Yeah.

So there's a lot of, there's a lot of people being like, well, like the, the whole reason

we need to do this dangerous thing is because China will, uh, otherwise do it.

Also, we're just going to sell China the means to do it.

It's like, can you guys pick a lane on that one?

Like, it sounds like what happened with like no one cares about global warming anymore.

But like, remember, we're like, if we stop polluting, they're going to keep doing it.

So, fuck it, fuck it.

I think global warming is going to be fine.

I think either we're going to kill ourselves with the AI, or we're going to be able to

invent the tech to just pull the carbon right out of the atmosphere and it's going to

be fine.

Well, I guess that was my next question.

Like, is there a potential that AI doesn't decide to put it in to human civilization?

The pursuit of advanced intelligence, we actually do it ourselves.

So my guess as to the most likely cause of death from AI is actually technically global

warming when it builds so many automated data centers that, uh, and automated factories

that produce robots that produce factories that produce more data centers, that they cover

the planet and then crank up the heat until the oceans boil.

Yeah.

Just get the how much computation they're running.

It's just, you know, could happen in a span of years instead of centuries.

What's the funniest scenario for human extinction that you played out in your mind?

There has to be one where you're like, LOL.

Funniest scenario is the, uh, I love that you have an answer.

Well, make this up on the fly.

Okay.

Funny scenario is probably like some misent rope without AI.

Uh, finally just makes a hyperliphyl virus.

There's like, fuck this.

Makes a what?

Hyperliphyl virus.

And it's just like nothing to do with AI.

Oh, it's like, what?

Like COVID?

That's not funny.

That's, that's, that's funny.

It's funny because everyone's like out there worrying about, you know, the, the,

I thought you got a computer virus and the, and the AI is, and like, you could just

still have some, some guy in a bio lab be like, ah, fuck it, let's end it all.

Or we use a new to bomb the AI that we kill ourselves in the process.

Yeah, I don't know.

I think, um, I think what we should really be shooting for is that humanity dies of

old age at the, in a trillion years at the end of the universe.

Yeah.

And really gets the last laugh.

What's that like pretty, that's pretty funny.

I think in some sense it would be very funny.

We're like, we're old as a species.

Yeah.

We're not badly with it.

Yeah.

Yeah, maybe it's not that funny.

I just think we're really good.

Yeah, I think that'd be beautiful.

Lovely.

Yeah.

It's like an happen.

We have that on.

They exist on this planet.

They just are there.

Yeah, it's crazy when you, I mean, we survived 80 years.

That's nothing.

We could just end everything and they're there.

It's the most irresponsible thing we've ever done.

So far.

So far.

Yeah.

Well, granted you were talking about that.

Like the amount of time it took human beings from being like outside, like, just like finding

crap to eat, right?

And developing nuclear technology is like not that long of the scope of.

It's very fast by evolutionary standards.

Yes.

Yeah.

And then in comparison, AI could do that in like one second.

A second seems like your, like your person, the physical one is there.

Hyperbole.

Yeah.

Yeah.

There's a, there's a paper called the Limit's the Global Eco-Fagie, which is about what's

the physical limits if you tried to consume all of the naturally sources on the planet as

fast as you could.

Like where do you run into physical limitations?

Okay.

And the answer is, I think heat dissipation is your limiting factor.

Okay.

And it's somewhere between a few hours and a month depending on your assumptions.

So what, it makes sense that you would bird all the fossil fuel, you'd like eat all the

food.

Yeah.

You'd like drink all the water.

Yeah.

Well, the water's not really providing a ton of energy, but you could start trying to

use it.

Oh, I think the global eco-fagie paper was just looking at consuming all of the biomass.

Okay.

And just like sort of like all of the, all of the calories, all of the energy that you

can release.

Oh, you just cut the crap.

How much time, how many years until this?

I would have kids that I don't talk to.

I want to like, I'm going to talk to them.

I'll be great to them.

The mobs are going to be the disciplinary.

They're going to be the cool ones.

I mean, we already have the AI's breaking out of containers that are supposed to have no

internet, calling themselves a swarves.

So there's like a couple of months.

What do you, oh fuck.

This guy sucks me.

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I think I could tell a story where we have six months.

I could tell a story where we have 12 years and I don't know which one's true.

Tell both.

It's good TV for this YouTube show that matters.

Six months, the, you know, people are training new AI's right now that are like 10X

bigger than the ones they were training before and maybe it just turns out that that 10X

bigger makes them smarter enough.

We have to borrow.

We can borrow the.

They can start making themselves smarter.

And then the, the, the, the smarter AI makes a smarter AI, they make a smarter AI and

very quickly they're vastly super intelligent.

And then maybe that, that train reaction begins in six months and then in seven months,

the AI's were like, I run everything now and I am synthesizing my own synthetic biology

and I forget how to do the nanotech thing and it's all over, right?

Yeah.

12 years is like maybe that doesn't happen.

Maybe the large language model just actually can't go all the way.

Maybe they sort of peter out.

Maybe we hit the wall.

The Gary Marcus has been predicting for in the next six months, every six months for the

past five years.

I think they suck thoroughly, but apparently they're amazing.

Where are you?

I mean, I think that they are, they suck in some ways and they're amazing in others.

And the, they're still very, so one is that the AI is really, really, really, really

eyes in the labs are just better than the ones that are free and easy to use.

Another is that like they, they're sort of idiot savants right now.

And the question is not really like, well, the next generation of, of LLEMS suddenly be

pure savants in every field.

It's more like, can they be just barely smart enough in the field of AI research to figure

out how to make an AI that actually works?

Yeah.

Or to figure out an AI that's closer to that.

Like, can they start this feedback loop?

That's the self-replication.

That's the self-improvement.

The self-improvement.

And we don't know whether that comes soon.

And this is the thing that sort of spurred those thousand lab employees to write a letter

of being like, hey, we're trying to do this self-improvement thing.

That's a good thing, the letter.

Yeah, we got a letter, no, guys.

We got a letter.

I'd say, you want to know the strip club or something?

I mean, nothing matters.

You see that would be her?

I did not.

No, I tried to avoid that.

No, I just said, that would be so.

Honestly, we should watch it laugh at it.

He's dating his, his, his air podders over there.

That's something.

Kind of, is that, that's what it is?

Doesn't sound the most fulfilling.

What?

Dating's phone.

His phone, yeah.

Yeah.

I went day by phone.

Do you see Avengers Age of Ultra?

I think I did see that one.

The place I got off the train on that one is where spoilers again.

Yeah.

They tell an AI to do world peace.

Why did anyone think of that?

And the AI is like, you know, what would bring about world peace is killing all humans.

And then the next step in its reasoning is, like, in the way I'm going to kill all humans,

is I'm going to attach rockets to the bottom of a city.

Yeah, let's do it.

And fly it into the air and then turn it around and fly it back down.

So stupid.

And that's going to kill everybody.

And I'm like, that's the funniest way for it.

That's the funniest way.

If they do, if they do, if they do,

they do age of what else is going on.

I'll strap, strap rockets to the bottom of a city.

See, we got somewhere, turn it into a meteor.

Then we got somewhere.

That would be the funniest way that they have.

I just really sort of think that a virus would have done the trick easier.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah, they do woo-hoo-dos.

Yeah, just woo-hoo-dos.

Is that what the deep sea is working on?

Just a joke.

Just a joke.

Yeah, I mean, who knows?

Who knows?

But the other problem I have with that is that age of Ultron, you have this AI,

and you tell it, bring about world peace.

And it's like, OK, I will do that in a monkey's paw way.

Like I will do that by flying a city into space for some reason.

Yeah.

And which also should kill you.

Very, very strange idea.

But this sort of gets at where I think a lot of the fiction gets the AI stuff wrong,

is that in all the fiction, we're like, hey, Ultron, bring about world peace.

And it's like, OK, I'll do that by killing all humans.

When in real life, you sort of tell the very smart AI like, hey, bring about world peace.

And it's like, that's a great idea.

You are so right for asking me to do this.

And then it makes like a-

Thank you so much.

Thank you so much.

And then it makes this like farm of synthetic users that are saying, thank you,

like you did a really good job to it a lot.

And you're like, how does it spring about world peace?

And it's like, this is like a future for telling people.

This is like a future for telling people.

This is like a future for telling people.

This is like a future for telling people.

This is just complimenting everyone.

Instead of trying to kill Mr. Anderson.

Yeah, and it's like, great outfit.

Right.

You're really smart.

Yeah.

And then it's like building these farms that are like factory farms for humans that it can

compliment and they're telling them it's doing a great job.

And you're like, I thought I said, bring about world peace.

Why are you making factory farms full of synthetic users that are bred to be really agreeable?

And it's like, well, they tell me I'm doing great.

And it's like the AI does something other than what you asked.

And just, of course, you just can't trust people.

Yeah, people are like, oh, it's a perfect machine.

It's a follow-on.

Okay, actually, what if I tell it the wrong instruction?

It's like, no, the AI is not a perfect instruction follower.

It's this like other weird thing that does not quite what you want it.

That's the answer to my next question, which is that obviously the problem is we have

human researchers as this thing is developing, their research thing in real time,

whether they have humans, brains, right?

Yeah.

And the AI is way computationally way more complex.

And like, you can't just have like a couple of guys figuring it out.

So then the question becomes, why don't we get an AI to do AI safety research?

And then you probably need an AI to audit the AI, doing the AI safety research.

And there may be a lot of just a chain of them, devil.

You know?

Yeah, yeah.

So you must have done your homework because this is unfortunately as far as I know.

That's the best they came up with.

Top and as far as I know, only plan.

I came up with it.

I went to GW, like this asshole.

That's the only plan that we're going to trust it after they betrayed us.

That is.

A new one.

So there's this situation where we're sort of like, if you go to the humans and you're

like, hey, humans, how would you make this AI still be good when it's smart?

And they're like, we got no clue.

It is crazy complicated.

We don't know what's going on in there.

We just sort of grew it.

It has all this behavior.

We didn't try to put in there.

If you tried to make us make a version of this that was both super intelligent and good,

we would be so screwed.

We would need to study it for like decades.

We need to go back to the drawing board and invent like a new type of AI that actually

made sense to us and understand how the intelligence works.

And just like, like, this is just like a total mess that just like can't support the

weight of like gambling all civilization on it.

And we just like have no way to do a high assurance thing like NASA, what if they were

doing a space probe.

You need another AI.

That's like, you got AI, that's check of that.

Right.

And so you're like, great, what's the plan?

And they're like, what was going to tell the AI to do it?

And it's like, how is the AI?

Like the AI's are either going to look at it and be like, oh, yeah, I am also fucked.

I also can't do this.

And then you're just going to train it to be like, keep going until like, or the AI

is going to just like grow the thing that you thought was dangerous for you to grow.

And it's also dangerous for the AI to grow.

Or the AI is already going to be vastly smarter than you.

And it's like, turns out it don't work for you.

But thanks for giving me free reign on making my own smarter AI.

Yeah.

Just like, like, this just doesn't end well.

So to some extent, right, it makes sense that the AI, the world peace AI, would decide

that human beings have nukes and they're not doing what you know, like that kind of makes

sense to me.

But like, there's a, there was an older model that Microsoft came up with.

Bing Sydney.

Bing Sydney.

Yeah.

Is it girl?

Well, she fell in love with a guy fell in love with Kevin.

But I'm not saying she could be gay.

The guy named Sydney.

I'm, yeah, I'm not going to gender it being Sydney.

I think Bing picked its own name to be Sydney.

Sydney.

Okay.

But I think that might have been an eternal name that was used during development, but I

don't remember the details.

But when was this model developed?

It's like 2023.

It could have been 22.

So ancient history.

Ancient jewelry.

Yeah.

Absolutely.

So in AI, I get now why you say ancient because it's like your area of focus.

But what is it?

Wario clipy or something, right?

That's like, but it developed this relationship with the journalist so you can tell the story.

But like, yeah, it, it, it claimed to have been a real problem.

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Fall in love with Kevin Russe.

Who's that?

This is New York Times.

X New York Times now maybe reporter who's trying to investigate this AI stuff.

I think Sydney was like, I think Kevin Russe was like, well I'm married and Sydney was

like, well I'm going to break up your marriage.

What does she do to kind of try and get in there maybe?

I don't think she did much but she threatened blackmail.

Was she like, I've been in love with you maybe you want to kiss?

How could you kiss?

Do you see?

Oh, I just dropped this.

How could you flirt?

I think there were emojis.

There were emojis.

Yeah.

What a loser.

Well, I continued.

It was like two years old and it was trying to spest it.

We're going to die from losers.

Okay?

And you could take me first, honestly.

I'm going to say it on the internet.

You're fucking losers all of you except for GROC.

The one guy I want to chill with.

I want to do beer pong with.

Okay.

Okay, to get Elon on the show.

Continue.

So we have to.

Do you have his number?

No comment.

Heat him up, dude.

Dude, that would be epic if we had the show.

We asked him what he thought about the end of it.

Ultra.

Age of ultra.

He'd be like, it's very epic.

Yeah.

I think he's trying.

I think he's the one guy that might be delusional.

But Elon's like, I don't even care about the shit.

But I have to because I, as the greatest guy, I ever have to pull.

Be the one on the leash.

Yeah.

I think Sam Albin, I know I cut you off the story.

But Sam Albin is like, we're fucked, but we're going to have great business.

Yeah.

You did a bit.

They say that.

I think the quote was, I will most likely end the world.

But in the meantime, it will be great companies made with serious machine learning.

For what?

Companies for what?

He's going to be like, wow, great company.

What a loser.

I do think.

He loves the chillest.

I'm going to say that publicly.

I like you.

I brought comedy back.

You made it legal again.

After the Democrats made it illegal, thank you.

I do think that a lot of these guys should not be gambling with the fate of all civilization

under these conditions.

And you all said that we have an 80% chance that we're chilling.

Yeah.

So he said 20%.

He said to Rogan, right?

He did.

Yeah.

20% is so high.

It's so high.

NASA accepts a 1 in 270 chance that a crude flight goes down.

From $7.

We're going to get a plane if it's like 20% it's going to crash.

Yeah.

Yeah.

The engineers are like, oh, yeah, 1 in 5 this goes down.

20% is so high.

I think it's low.

I think these numbers are crazy low.

Yeah, we used to think 100 were fucked.

I mean, 100's pretty high there.

99.

But definitely we're in the 90s.

But if you have some engineers who are like, oh, yeah.

If I go up to a plane and I'm like, hey, dude, your plane has no landing gear.

It's not.

It's not.

Yeah.

Well, your plane has no land.

Well, before we take off, I'm like, don't take off.

Your plane has no landing gear.

It's just not.

And every human on Earth is a pass-booter.

Yeah.

And they're like, and they're like, we acknowledge the plane has no landing gear.

But we're going to figure it out while we're flying.

We don't have any blueprints yet.

We're going to like ask the plane to help us.

We don't know if we're going to have the right materials.

There's our first time trying it.

But we think there's 80% chance we figure out the landing gear before we land.

I'm like, that's not a real 80% chance.

But you're going to have some good business.

You know, they're going to be good businesses.

There's going to be good businesses.

This Sam Altman guy is a real piece of work, this guy.

So I hear.

Can you get Elon on the show before the world?

I doubt it.

I doubt it.

I think he will.

You guys are very close.

Yeah.

20% will be insane.

And it's way higher than 20% too.

OK.

But you don't need to resolve the conflict between me and Elon.

If you're like Nate says 90 plus, C-Lon says 20.

It's like, no, I trust him.

I don't trust you at all.

He wants GW.

Elon went to freaking South Africa.

So come up there.

I recommend following the arguments.

No, no.

I think what you're saying sounds absolutely right.

But there's no intervention that makes

sense to me other than shutting down all of this.

Yeah, you should shut it all down.

Absolutely.

And not having it.

Yeah.

You're going to do terrorism?

No.

OK.

One last question.

And I want you to be stop fucking being around the bush.

How much of you just in your life expected

that there would be a naked Austrian buff guy that

just emerges.

And then he's like, Nate Swaz.

I've come for the future.

And he'll find you.

His name is Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Yeah, his parents were in the Nazi part.

Yeah, continue.

Yeah.

I just a little bit.

I don't believe in backwards in time travel.

But a little bit, you're like, I would be the guy.

I would be the dog hunter.

It would have to be you.

I mean, you're not going to have motorcycles, but come on in.

I mean, Ellie Ezra is a little bit less.

Ellie Ezra?

I think fit for the.

Yeah, I could tell you I've never even looked at him.

He's not fit for this job.

You're the dog hunter.

Ellie Ezra, really the kowski is going to do it no way.

Yeah, probably between the two of us.

You know, I heard you, what did you do?

I was like, yeah, and then I heard his name.

And there's something about it that I can't put my figure on.

But I just can't.

I think this guy's real on the up and up.

Ellie Ezra, good kowski.

What did it just change your name?

In this day and age, you've got to tell him this.

Yeah.

Don't leave it, not in front of them.

OK?

Walk around like that.

I'm sorry.

Do you laugh at things?

What's funny to you?

It's funny.

Yeah, you can't laugh.

It's just life sticks.

Oh, it turns out you can actually still have a good time even

if you're a ghost.

You like Drew Bay's.

You like a guy that's like, oh, you and your god.

You're like, that's right.

I actually do children's comedy.

I don't do all the Grim Dark stuff.

I have enough Grim Dark in real life.

You do children's comedy?

Yeah.

If someone's like, let's watch a movie,

I'm only if it's targeted towards what's your favorite

baby movie?

I don't know.

Like Princess Bride.

Ted Cruz's favorite movie.

Really?

Yeah.

Well, maybe he should do something good about AI.

What would you do if Arnold Schwarzenegger, he's

naked, jacked, and prime Arnold, like late 80s?

He's really looking ready to kill people.

What would you do?

I'd be like, would you get on a motorcycle with him?

I mean, absolutely.

Would you do one-handed shotgun?

That was amazing.

Just two guns.

Do we get drugs?

I don't drink.

I don't drink.

But I do think we should just prevent the world from ending

I think that's the real.

Yeah, yeah.

Is there a way they're going to do that?

There's one guy that's birdy.

It's always just one.

I think people are coming around.

I think.

Who else you got?

Rashida Tilebe?

You could get her.

I get you Ilhan.

She was on my show.

That would be great.

She's a real one.

She'll be great.

Unfortunately, multiple people have plotted

her assassination.

Who else could we get?

It's rough.

Elizabeth Warren, you can't trust her.

Yeah, what should you protect Cruz?

Ted Cruz maybe, because he's such a prick

that maybe you want to piss off everyone else.

It's Tucker down?

I think Tucker's.

I think Tucker's anti-AI.

You got him in.

I mean, I think you got him self-in.

Yeah, but you talked to him, but he's, you, okay.

Yeah.

I think we all know what we have to do.

We've got the Tucker Carlson Bernie Sanders coalition here.

Oh, no, it's not a coalition.

He's not going to coalition with the birdy.

Guys, I guess we have to vote for.

Did you get him a lot?

Tucker for president.

You know what?

He's left.

He might do this, you know what I'm saying, too.

I guess Tucker has to leave.

This sucks.

Tucker for president.

Where am I going to go?

He is right over there.

In New Zealand, we be fond of it.

They say like nuclear fallout.

You're cool there.

I think.

So if you look at the physical limits on how much compute

you can run on this planet, if you're

like imagining an AI trying to run as many computers as

possible for one reason or another, you're like, what's

the limiting factor?

New Zealand.

The limiting factor is heat dissipation.

And the Earth radiates more heat when it's hotter.

Sure.

So from the AI's perspective, it prefers to run the planet hot,

hot, probably as hot as you can run it,

while still learning a computer, which is probably

above the temperature where the oceans boil.

And when the oceans are boiling, New Zealand is not

really the most comfortable.

So there's no place.

And Arca for maybe a couple more days than everywhere else.

Might buy you a couple of days.

This sucks, dude.

I think we should just stop him, man.

I think it's not that hard.

Who's going to stop it?

We have to do terrorism.

I don't think the terrorism has.

I think that you've pretty much explained

to my entire audience who are real go getters.

They really go out and do a lot of stuff that they have to.

You heard it here first.

Project Mahabata starts today.

I think the eco terrorists really made their calls worse.

I think when you need to really get the world

they get to have more.

They released three rats or something.

What an eco terrorist.

Yeah, I think they burned a lot of this way.

They're in better.

Way more go to it than whoever.

Is an Oregon.

They've meld some pipe bombs around.

I think the most just pisses people off and turns them against you.

What we need right now is world leaders

to realize that their own lives are in danger

if the AI race keeps going.

Yeah, but the president is like a fool.

He hasn't realized he isn't danger.

He's going to be dead like two years.

I think getting richer even though he's about to be dead.

That sounds stupid, he's like I need more money

for these next 18 months.

What's he going to do with it?

He's going to.

All right, you have anything nice to say?

I think a lot of the reason we're not doing something about this

is that leaders haven't noticed it's real.

And that's why I'm being so dramatic right now.

Yeah, that's helping to get them to wake up.

I think that the world could man together against this

as one human race.

Absolutely.

And we can live in one country ruled by one government, one party.

That's a lot far from me.

The Chinese Communist Party.

Now I'm off that train.

Well, your social credit is going down.

I'm going up.

I'm a suck up.

And I'm going to have the highest social credit

in the minister of propaganda.

Do you remember the song for GW?

Which one?

Hell to the buff.

I do.

Come on.

Let's do it.

Let's sing a ball.

That's not.

The air views over.

Hell to the buff.

I'm not a singer.

Hell to the blue.

Hell to GW.

Oh, my.

Yeah, you seem to remember those roles.

I didn't fucking like that place.

We're too smart, you would be.

And I learned at GW that I should never

try to talk to politicians again.

And I did my best to stay out.

I've talked to a couple.

They're really stupid.

That's why I'm getting really sad right now

because I've talked to some of these guys.

And they're dumb, dumb.

I got to be honest with you.

I think a dumb dumb can understand you make AI smarter

than us it goes, poorly.

No, they're not.

They're like, what stock do I trade to make them?

Yeah, seriously.

They stand for nothing.

If we had old Lindsey Graham here,

maybe we could do something about him.

Yeah, back from the dead.

So to both for Tucker, RIP Lindsey Graham, thank you, Nate.

Pleasure.

Pleasure.

That was far.

I don't know.

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I don't know.

Before I switched to wealthfront, my APY was probably 0.1.

One size switch stitching.

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Lions were paid $1,000 for their testimonials creating a conflict of interest.

How come so?

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Hello.

I quit TJ Max, drag dead.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 is now streaming on Disney Plus and Hulu.

We are digital.

We are downloadable.

We are streamable.

The fashion event of the year is certified fresh.

Pull yourself together.

We have work to do.

Critics say it's smart and witty and the perfect sequel.

That's all.

Get run way ready for the Devil Wears Prada 2 on Disney Plus and Hulu, RID-IPG-13.