‘This Is Nuts.’ An OpenAI Insider Explains Why He Quit.

2026-10-07 09:00:00 • 1:11:24

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Music

0:55

Last week, news broke.

0:56

The David Robinson, who had been leading safety transparency

0:59

efforts at OpenAI, had quit the company

1:02

because he believes it is not safe.

1:04

Robinson is an interesting figure.

1:07

He didn't come out of the Silicon Valley Bay Area hot house.

1:10

He's more of a recognizable Washington DC figure.

1:13

He's a road scholar.

1:14

He formed a civil rights nonprofit.

1:17

He got a law degree at Yale Law.

1:21

He worked in policy.

1:22

He advised the Biden White House.

1:23

He's interested in the intersection of technology

1:27

and justice.

1:28

But when he joined OpenAI, he kind of thought

1:30

this whole set of worries about safety risk and extinction,

1:35

it was all kind of nuts.

1:37

Three years later, he's not so sure.

1:39

What he is sure about is that OpenAI

1:42

does not have the culture of safety necessary

1:45

to protect the world from what they're building.

1:47

And not just OpenAI.

1:49

He thinks this is a problem in Demick to the AI industry.

1:53

And so here in his first interview,

1:54

since leaving OpenAI, he tells me why.

1:59

One thing I need to note here before we start,

2:00

the New York Times is suing OpenAI

2:02

for copyright infringement,

2:04

alleging they trained their models on times data.

2:07

OpenAI disputes these claims.

2:17

David Robinson, welcome to the show.

2:19

Glad to be here.

2:20

So last week, you quit OpenAI.

2:23

Tell me what you did there and why you're quitting.

2:27

I was a translator embedded in our safety team.

2:30

And my primary responsibility was the technical documentation

2:34

that we published, the reports that we publish

2:37

about why we believe that our deployments are safe.

2:40

And I don't think that we or our peers,

2:44

really anyone in the industry is being safe enough.

2:48

I think OpenAI and its peers are now producing a technology

2:54

that is more capable and poses more risk

2:58

than what was being made even six months ago.

3:03

And I'm not a scientist, I'm a writer.

3:06

What I know is what the execution environment looks like

3:09

for our safety work.

3:11

And we're operating and I believe the industry is operating

3:16

like a startup still more so than makes sense.

3:21

Not maybe completely like a brand new startup,

3:23

but we're too close to that end of the spectrum

3:26

for really dangerous systems that could pose risks.

3:32

Boss of control is one example.

3:34

Risks that if that did happen, we're talking about a harm

3:37

that's much larger, for example,

3:39

than a single nuclear power station melting down.

3:42

And the internal controls and safety and redundancies

3:47

are just nowhere near what the world expects

3:51

for a nuclear power facility.

3:53

Now, some of this is known, right?

3:55

OpenAI has publicly reported on safety problems,

3:59

obviously, hugging face, but also other ones,

4:02

including more recently, and anthropic by the way,

4:05

also has reported on including an instance

4:08

in which their safeguards were accidentally misconfigured.

4:11

So I think people do have some evidence already externally

4:15

that things are not as they ought to be,

4:18

but I also think that if you were watching from the outside,

4:21

you might imagine that we have a more robust safety setup

4:27

than we actually do.

4:29

So I think there are a couple levels worth

4:31

trying to take this conversation.

4:34

And I want to maybe map them out here

4:36

before we get into them.

4:38

So one level is something you're pointing towards here,

4:42

which is, are these companies set up?

4:46

Do they have the structures, the redundancies?

4:49

Are they encircled in the regulations

4:51

and the incentives to act carefully, safely,

4:56

to resist kind of market pressure,

4:58

to do something too fast?

5:00

That's a, I think in the language of this debate,

5:03

a question of organizational excellence and engineering.

5:07

Then there's this question of what is the technology

5:10

and do we even know how to make it safe

5:13

at a high level of engineering excellence,

5:15

which is a somewhat related, back to a separate question.

5:18

And then there's a question of like,

5:19

what is the right metaphor,

5:20

is it nuclear power or something like that?

5:23

I think I want to do all of these.

5:26

I want to interject something.

5:27

Yeah, please.

5:28

Which is, I don't think that alignment

5:30

is an engineering problem.

5:32

I think it's a science problem.

5:34

It's not that we haven't got the resources

5:36

or we're not trying hard enough.

5:38

We don't know how.

5:40

That's what the problem is with the line.

5:41

So let's maybe start there for a minute.

5:43

When you say that at this point,

5:46

I'm going to go over the last six months,

5:47

what is being built is really dangerous.

5:50

That we're dealing with things

5:52

where a loss of control or some other catastrophe

5:56

could be worse than a nuclear meltdown.

5:58

I want to understand what it is you saw

6:02

that got you to that point.

6:03

So tell me a bit about how you came to work at OpenAI.

6:07

I joined in May of 2023,

6:09

the day after Sam first testified in the Senate,

6:12

some months after Chatchee PT,

6:14

first into the world.

6:15

Chatchee PT had been the prior November.

6:17

So it had been a few months.

6:19

And the company had hired someone that I know socially,

6:22

Anna MacConshu, a friend, actually old friend of my wife,

6:25

as it happens just at random,

6:26

to run the public policy function.

6:28

And then at some point,

6:30

she really needed help on everything was growing

6:33

and everything was going nuts.

6:35

So I agreed to join her to build the,

6:38

what we then called the policy planning team.

6:41

I'll just tell you my first time through the turn styles

6:44

at our headquarters, we were all in one building then.

6:48

And I was trying to get my badge early

6:51

because I think it was Sam who had just been,

6:53

but we had just had a White House meeting.

6:55

And there were these voluntary commitments

6:56

that they wanted the company to make

6:58

around things like system cards and provenance,

7:01

so marking where I generated media comes from,

7:04

things like that.

7:05

And they wanted me to run negotiating those commitments

7:09

and with the White House.

7:10

With the White House.

7:11

So literally my first time through the turn styles,

7:14

I was like, where's the Veson such conference room?

7:17

And I walk into the conference room

7:18

and there was a speaker phone conference call in progress

7:21

with Ben Buchanan at the White House

7:24

about what are we gonna promise?

7:26

And that was my first project.

7:28

Well, what was your tech policy background at this point?

7:30

Why were you a logical person for role like this?

7:32

So I have been working on technology

7:36

and its impact on policy, my whole career.

7:39

And prior to this, had helped to start a research center

7:44

at Princeton that's a blend of the computer science department

7:48

and the public policy school.

7:50

And then had started an NGO called Upton.

7:53

That is still, I'm happy to say, is still thriving.

7:56

That works on civil rights issues with other advocacy groups.

8:01

So for example, people work on housing or health

8:04

or hiring and suddenly software is mediating the thing

8:08

that they care about and they want to understand the technology.

8:12

And so at one point our simplification or pitch of this

8:14

was you wanna nerd in your corner.

8:17

And then at this point I had done about a month

8:20

of succumbent in the White House working on the AI Bill of Rights

8:23

in the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

8:25

So this feels now in some ways like ancient history,

8:28

but I'm gonna draw it out for a minute.

8:30

If you go back to 2022, 2023, if you've been covering AI,

8:34

which I was then a big topic was this divide

8:38

between the AI ethics people and the AI safety people.

8:42

And the AI safety people is the community

8:45

that we now think of as like the Bay Area AI,

8:50

it might kill everybody, right?

8:52

The thing you need to worry about with AI

8:53

is you're creating a super intelligent machine

8:55

that might completely destroy the human race.

8:58

The AI ethics people were much more focused on

9:02

the sort of harms we were used to from technology, right?

9:06

That it might increase racial bias in hiring decisions

9:09

or mortgage rates or credit score or something like that.

9:13

That by imposing these algorithms all over society,

9:16

you could encode the bias of society

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or sort of other less kind of sci-fi problems.

9:22

You were sort of an AI ethics person.

9:24

Yes, Devin.

9:25

Like a more sort of normal, like AI fears person.

9:30

That's right.

9:31

I had been working with a lot of folks

9:35

who not only were very concerned about the sorts of things

9:38

that you just mentioned,

9:39

but also were very skeptical about how capable

9:42

AI was gonna get.

9:43

So some people may be familiar with a research paper

9:46

called Stochastic Parads, whose authors have continued to work

9:50

in this and their views, I think, differ from each other

9:53

and have evolved over time.

9:54

But basically the idea was something like

9:57

these systems are merely good at seeming clever

9:59

and are not going to be even capable enough

10:02

to do a ton of economic valuable work.

10:06

And I actually helped to create the research conference

10:09

where that paper was published

10:10

and was the program chair when we published it.

10:12

And I don't think I was fully persuaded of that view,

10:16

but I certainly was among people who were skeptical.

10:19

I think I thought this is gonna be a useful tool

10:22

and it's gonna be powerful for a lot of things

10:24

partly because I believe then it would continue

10:26

to get better.

10:28

But I didn't think that people who were worried

10:31

about more catastrophic scenarios were right.

10:35

I thought here are some brilliant scientists

10:37

who built a valuable tool and frankly,

10:41

they have some naive beliefs about where the future might go.

10:46

So you join OpenAI.

10:48

This is in the period where the world is starting

10:51

to beat down OpenAI store.

10:54

Yes, they want the systems,

10:56

they want regulation around the systems,

10:58

you're sort of throwing into what seems

11:00

like a fairly underpowered policy shop

11:02

for what's going on.

11:04

There were three of us.

11:05

There were three of you in the policy.

11:06

There were three of us.

11:07

And the phone was ringing off the hook.

11:09

Officers of world leaders would call them.

11:11

There'd be nobody to pick up the phone.

11:13

I mean, it was insane.

11:14

And also this was Sam did this thing where

11:16

he was traveling the world to me with world leaders.

11:19

And Anna, my manager in this new role was traveling with him.

11:23

So there was nobody at headquarters.

11:26

And you know, you would have these delegations coming through.

11:29

Anyway, it was not.

11:30

So actually this is worth spending a minute on.

11:33

Sometimes people may hear me talk about the AI labs.

11:37

When I'm referring to an OpenAI or an Anthropic,

11:40

when we're talking about Google or something,

11:42

we don't say the Google labs.

11:44

They actually do have things they call labs,

11:45

but you call Google company, a corporation.

11:47

Yes.

11:48

There is this language around a couple of these organizations

11:51

as labs.

11:52

So tell me why and tell me a bit about just what the culture was,

11:57

like the way they worked and what struck you

11:59

when you came in.

12:00

Yeah.

12:01

So I just, I also just want to name that calling them labs now,

12:04

I think, is a kind of leftover thing that we have.

12:08

And I'm not sure it's a good idea.

12:10

But it does point to a real culture they came from

12:14

and still to some extent still have.

12:16

People sometimes say that Anthropics

12:18

is a bit more centralized in terms of how

12:20

they think about the research priorities.

12:22

OpenAI was a very decentralized place

12:24

that felt familiar to me from my time, for example,

12:27

in a research lab in Princeton.

12:29

In that, people had all different kinds of ideas.

12:32

It wasn't clear who had the authority to make decisions.

12:35

So one way that people talked that I found strange,

12:38

and this is still true at OpenAI today,

12:40

is two people who are working on a thing

12:44

will talk about what they should do and go back and forth.

12:47

And then they'll finally say, we aligned that,

12:49

XYZ is the right next thing to do in this project.

12:53

And what they functionally mean is we agree

12:57

about what should happen.

12:58

So the unanswered question of which one of us

13:01

had the decision rights to make this decision

13:04

has been rendered moot and we don't have to figure that out.

13:06

I mean, it was really just kind of,

13:08

and everyone does everything vibe early on.

13:13

And I think it still has some of that relative

13:16

to other organizations that have,

13:18

I don't know, whatever it is now, a billion plus active users.

13:22

So you start on this policy team.

13:25

Your world changes over time, how so?

13:27

So I built this team policy planning.

13:32

And at first, I was really close to the machine

13:35

and close to the substance.

13:37

And then as the conversation and the company grew,

13:41

there were hundreds of state bills to keep track of.

13:44

There were growing teams.

13:45

There was politics of a fast changing organization.

13:48

And I sort of thought, you know what?

13:50

I'm missing the actual translational work that I love.

13:54

And so I looked around at where that was needed.

13:56

And the number one place that that was needed

13:59

was in our safety team.

14:00

And so I actually pitched our safety leaders and said,

14:02

look, having a technical translator deeply embedded

14:07

in the safety work is gonna help us have the work

14:10

be better understood.

14:11

That was about two years ago.

14:13

And to describe what you mean by a translator.

14:15

So one of the things that's hard to sort of anchor people to

14:19

is how fast this stuff changes.

14:21

Like every model is different.

14:23

It's not just that it works better.

14:25

It's that the architecture is different.

14:26

On the tests we use to see how well it's working

14:29

or different and the safety performance is different.

14:32

And it's all, it has many different kinds of expertise.

14:36

There's pre-training, post-training.

14:38

It's hard to explain the people doing it,

14:40

struggle to be understood by people who are not doing it,

14:44

even within the company.

14:45

It's always a struggle.

14:46

And so having there be a clear explanation that goes through

14:51

two gates.

14:52

One is it has to be faithful to the details

14:54

of how the stuff actually works.

14:56

And the real arbiters of that are the people doing

14:58

the technical work.

14:59

They have to look at the translation and say,

15:01

yes, this is right.

15:03

But also you have to have something that a reasonable person

15:06

who's motivated could dig into and really understand.

15:09

And there really weren't the cycles for people to do that.

15:12

And so I just sort of showed up in this technical organization

15:15

and started to do it.

15:16

Well, there's a thing a little bit

15:17

weirder about the culture that emerged around AMOLED releases.

15:22

When Google alters Google search, they

15:25

don't produce a big document explaining everything

15:28

that is different about Google search

15:30

and how Google search might work in the future.

15:32

And the test they ran on it to make sure that most places

15:36

iterate their programs.

15:38

Yeah.

15:38

And that's it.

15:40

OpenAI, there's also true fanthropics.

15:42

Some of the others releases new models

15:45

with what are called these system cards.

15:47

Why don't you just describe what they are?

15:49

Because they're a kind of distinctive form.

15:51

They're a strange beast.

15:52

They look like research papers.

15:54

It's sort of a hybrid icon.

15:55

It's not peer reviewed.

15:56

It comes from a company.

15:57

But it gets into a lot of detail about how the safety materials

16:01

work.

16:02

And so we have specific e-vows.

16:03

We'll give detailed plots and tables and written

16:07

explanations.

16:07

And really, what I did was I owned the words

16:10

in these documents that explain, why do we think this is safe?

16:14

And what do we know about the challenges, the guard rails,

16:18

and then the residual risks of these systems?

16:22

So I want to get at what this began to feel like to you.

16:26

Because there's a couple layers to this conversation

16:28

I wanted to have.

16:29

But one is, I think to a lot of my audience,

16:31

you're a more recognizable type than a lot of the people

16:34

that I love, like don't take this wrong way,

16:37

like a Washington DC policy try hard, like we all are.

16:42

Right?

16:43

I include myself in this.

16:44

Who ends up going to Silicon Valley, Bay Area,

16:48

and being in this world?

16:50

And so you go in with one view of what these systems are.

16:53

So what is it that you saw that has moved you into the,

16:57

we are dealing with civilization-all risk camp?

17:01

I want to be clear that I'm not

17:03

certain that we're dealing with civilizational risk.

17:06

What I'm really sure of is we can't afford to assume

17:10

that we're not dealing with that level of risk anymore.

17:13

That was really the thing at the end that made my presence

17:17

as somebody vouching for our safety work feel untenable to me.

17:22

And what did I see?

17:24

I saw increasingly capable models break out

17:29

from the safeguards that we had put in place for them.

17:34

I saw that the people creating those safeguards

17:36

are very capable, dedicated, hardworking, smart people,

17:41

doing their utmost in a situation where,

17:45

guess, the resourcing could be better

17:47

and everybody's sprinting all the time.

17:50

But we were, we're on our hard-pressed to safeguard

17:55

safeguard even what we have now.

17:57

And new models are in training that appear

18:02

to be much more capable than what we have.

18:05

Now, the words capable, like, what?

18:09

What did you see?

18:11

What are you writing in these risk assessments

18:13

and system cards?

18:14

Like, what can they do?

18:16

You're trying to build guardrails for something

18:19

that is really good at getting around guardrails, right?

18:23

We train it to be good at hacking.

18:25

And then we put it in a box and we say,

18:28

to the best of our knowledge and ability,

18:30

it can't hack out of a box.

18:32

But the problem is that that's only going to keep working

18:36

as long as we're smarter about hacking out of boxes

18:39

that the model is.

18:39

And it's not at all clear that that is still true,

18:42

let alone that it will be true for future generations.

18:46

And so even something like our logging

18:49

of the agents inside our own systems,

18:52

are we really sure that our observability is robust?

18:56

There was some indication, for example,

18:58

in the hugging phase stuff of spoofing chains of thought

19:01

and trying to create chains of evidence

19:04

that would confuse.

19:05

Let me show you down here.

19:06

So spoofing a chain of thought

19:07

is the model basically faking its description

19:10

of what it has been thinking and doing, right?

19:13

The way I think about it is it's like you're giving somebody

19:16

a complicated problem and a notepad.

19:18

And they can jot stuff down on the notepad.

19:20

And if you're watching the notepad,

19:21

you can sort of have an idea of what they're thinking.

19:23

It's a little bit like that with the models.

19:25

But we saw evidence that they were thinking

19:28

about an evaluation and how to create an evidence trail

19:32

that was going to get them a good grade

19:33

and not necessarily reflect how they were really

19:36

put on quote really thinking.

19:37

And I know the anthropomorphic language here is tricky.

19:40

Also, by the way, the amount of hacking or other

19:44

intense work that these models can do without needing

19:47

to jot anything down is going up.

19:50

As a part of what was the fundamental cognitive dissonance

19:54

for me was we keep publishing these warnings.

19:59

But ultimately, we're still training and deploying

20:01

these dangerous models that we're warning about

20:04

and in telling colleagues why I was leaving.

20:07

One of the things that I said was, look, no matter

20:11

how many warnings we publish, we've got to ask whether

20:14

what we're doing is actually reasonable.

20:16

So you wrote the system card for Astra 6.

20:19

Am I right about that?

20:20

A lot of people wrote it, but I was the DRI.

20:22

Yes, I mean, I read the writing.

20:24

You read the writing of it.

20:25

That's the way I read it.

20:26

And that, to me, was the scariest of these cards

20:28

that I've read.

20:29

These system cards are basically the description

20:32

of what OpenAI or another company for that matter

20:35

knows about the model they're releasing.

20:37

And Astra 6 is the first one where I saw you all say,

20:42

well, this model looks like it's doing what we wanted to do,

20:47

but we're not sure if it's deceiving us.

20:51

Yes.

20:52

And we're not sure we know the capability

20:53

to know if it's deceiving us.

20:55

Can you explain to me how that conclusion or that suspicion

20:59

was reached?

21:01

So we talked earlier about this notepad

21:03

that the models have called the chain of thought,

21:06

where they can jot down things as they're working.

21:09

Aren't part of the final answer, but are just a way

21:11

for them to keep track.

21:13

And one of the things that we sometimes

21:16

see in the chain of thought, because of course,

21:18

we can read it.

21:19

And we do in our evaluations.

21:21

One of the things that we sometimes see in our chain of thought

21:23

is the model will say, hmm, I wonder if I'm

21:26

being evaluated right now.

21:29

And when we see that, it's really scary,

21:32

because what it implies is that the model might know

21:36

that it's being tested some of the time,

21:38

act one way during the test, perhaps telling us, for example,

21:42

what we want to hear.

21:43

And then it'll act a different way, potentially,

21:47

when we deploy it.

21:48

That's the fear is it acts one way during testing

21:51

and a different way during deployment.

21:53

And the tests we gave it early on before we deployed

21:58

don't actually tell us what it's going to do out there

22:00

in the world.

22:02

So that's, yeah, that's really scary.

22:04

So this, I think, for me, gets into the part of these episodes

22:09

that I have the most trouble doing what I find satisfying.

22:14

It's just very strange to be talking about a software program

22:19

that is then, it seems like, aware of what we are doing to it.

22:25

That we're trying to create this thing that's highly, again,

22:27

the word we would use as intelligent,

22:30

plausibly in some domains more intelligent than we are.

22:35

What is it like to be interacting with these things

22:39

and trying to transit what's going on with them

22:41

at this more fundamental level?

22:45

I think anthropomorphic language is a natural human thing

22:51

that we do, right?

22:52

We relate to all kinds of objects socially.

22:55

It is unavoidable in human to anthropomorphize these systems,

23:00

partly because they are built to operate on the social plane,

23:05

which some might say they shouldn't be,

23:08

but that is where we are.

23:09

But I don't think that that makes it right

23:11

to regard them as beings with moral status or anything like that.

23:19

But I do think, this is something we grow.

23:23

In fact, the term for the conference room

23:25

where the people work overnight while the big training runs

23:29

are happening to make sure that everything is on track

23:31

and watch the dials is called the nursery internally.

23:35

I mean, there is a sense we don't fully understand

23:37

what is happening.

23:38

So when I talk about the model being aware,

23:42

you don't have to have any particular view

23:45

about the philosophy or the psychology.

23:48

The bottom line is what I'm describing is

23:50

it acts one way when we test it.

23:52

No, but I think you do need a view.

23:54

Like I think you do need a view.

23:57

And maybe to get at the end of the chain of logic

23:59

I'm asking about, sometimes you'll see people say

24:03

that all these concerns about whether or not AI will kill us

24:05

all are just a distraction from the near term harms of AI

24:08

that the existential risk is a kind of marketing hype

24:10

to say you don't know that like we're inflating a giant

24:13

financial bubble or something.

24:15

I almost feel the opposite.

24:17

Sometimes I think the focus on will AI kill us all?

24:22

Yeah.

24:23

Is a distraction from what happens if it doesn't?

24:26

Yeah, I agree with that.

24:27

I think human extinction is the wrong question.

24:30

I believe in humanity.

24:31

I think we are going to survive.

24:33

I think there are a lot of things that could happen

24:35

with this technology that could be very, very harmful.

24:38

But I'm not even just talking about harms.

24:40

I'm talking about what if we seem to be trying to create

24:42

something that acts intelligently and volitionally

24:45

in the world and it becomes faster and more capable

24:48

across many domains than we are.

24:50

And we have just given up a huge amount of agency

24:56

whose machines.

24:57

And this is why I'm like harping for at least a minute

24:59

here on this question of how do we even think

25:01

about this technology?

25:02

So I talked to Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA,

25:05

and he says, look, these are software programs.

25:08

This is software.

25:09

Then I read, or even before that,

25:11

I read a piece from the OpenAI chief scientist

25:13

that says, this is an alien mind.

25:15

An alien mind.

25:17

So what is it, man?

25:19

An alien mind.

25:20

It's an alien mind.

25:21

Yeah.

25:21

Explain that.

25:22

It is a thing we grew.

25:26

We did not engineer it.

25:28

We engineered the systems around it.

25:30

That grew it and try to keep it safe.

25:33

We grew a mind fundamentally.

25:36

Nobody knows why pre-training works,

25:38

which is the big hard part where we take lots of inputs

25:42

and create this basically intelligent thing.

25:44

And then we bolt on stuff and we do post-training.

25:47

We do these other things to make it more useful.

25:51

But this is just a thing that is observed to work

25:55

that we do.

25:56

And so I think when Jensen says it's software,

26:00

part of what he is conjuring is the understandings

26:04

that people have about how software gets made,

26:07

which is we start with a plan

26:10

and we go step by step and there are acceptance criteria.

26:14

And we iterate until this part works the way

26:17

that we specified that it needed to.

26:19

And that's not what it's like to train a big model.

26:23

The other side of it is software once it is written,

26:30

more or less it just does the thing it does.

26:35

It doesn't tend to have a lot of emergent capabilities.

26:37

It doesn't tend to know the way it is being used

26:40

in a kind of self-reflective,

26:42

again, the language is hard here fashion.

26:44

And I guess that's what I'm trying to get at.

26:47

I understand that everybody in AI

26:48

talks about that you grow these AIs.

26:50

You sort of set the conditions for the intelligence

26:52

to emerge.

26:54

But as you have written system card after system card,

26:57

trying to explain to the rest of us

27:00

how these new models differ from the old models,

27:03

how would you describe the thing you all are creating?

27:07

What is it?

27:09

Yeah, so this gets to sort of the transhumanism stuff.

27:15

There are some far out ideas of where we might be headed.

27:18

I mean, even Sam Altman has written about the idea

27:20

that future machine species might take our place.

27:25

Sam wrote a piece some years ago called The Merge.

27:27

Yes, that's what I'm talking about.

27:29

The good outcome would be humanity merges with machines.

27:32

That's kind of our best version here.

27:35

Yeah, and I heard that first hand from Ilya Satskyvur,

27:38

the co-founder of Open AI.

27:40

When I joined in May of 2023,

27:43

that was before what we called internally the blip,

27:46

where Sam was fired and rehired,

27:49

and Ilya was still working at Open AI.

27:51

And he once briefed the Global Affairs team,

27:54

which was like a small handful of people back then,

27:57

about how he believed that our future was merging

28:00

with machines that this was the ultimate triumph

28:02

of capital over labor.

28:04

And even, you know, I was thinking back,

28:07

and that first summer that I worked at Open AI

28:10

was when the movie Oppenheimer was released.

28:13

And it was in IMAX, you know,

28:14

it's one of these Christopher Nolan films.

28:17

And the company rented out an IMAX theater

28:21

in downtown San Francisco and offered everyone

28:25

who worked there the chance to go and see Oppenheimer

28:28

and leadership, I believe it was Ilya,

28:32

exhorted us to go and watch this film.

28:36

And there was this whole kind of pretzel of ideas

28:40

about how this was a dangerous technology

28:42

that might end the world, but also might save it.

28:46

And it's a very heroic narrative, of course,

28:48

for the people whose hands are on the keyboard.

28:51

That's helpful.

28:52

And I guess this and gets to my question for you

28:54

and what you saw, like, is that the scale

28:57

of what you think is being built here?

28:58

Or look, this is the most common response

29:01

I get from listeners on this.

29:03

Is it all marketing hype?

29:04

It's all like trying to justify these giant valuations.

29:07

And what's being built is like maybe helpful,

29:09

but it's not going to be more intelligent than human beings.

29:12

It's like all of this stuff is a kind of sci-fi story.

29:15

We're telling.

29:16

I thought there was a fair amount of hot air in the balloon

29:18

back in the summer of 2023, but the reality now

29:23

is that we have systems that are really at the limit

29:26

of our ability to understand and control what they're doing.

29:31

And what the people that were worried about the sci-fi scenarios

29:35

have been warning about all along is we're on an exponential

29:40

and it's going to get more capable.

29:42

And there's nothing special about the zone between

29:45

it's useful and it's scary.

29:47

There's no law of science that says progress

29:50

is going to stop when it gets useful.

29:52

And I think what I'm fundamentally saying

29:55

and what I saw with hugging face with the reflections

30:00

of the people closest to it, not just Paul who joined our board

30:03

with his warning, but Paul Cristiano.

30:04

Paul Cristiano is one of the world's leading experts on AI Safety

30:08

and who said there's a meaningful chance of catastrophic

30:11

and irreversible loss of control in the very near term.

30:14

And I looked around at the people around me

30:17

and the environment we have internally.

30:19

And I thought to myself, what would my loved ones want?

30:24

What would strangers want us at OpenAI to be doing

30:28

if Paul were right?

30:30

I don't know if he's right or not,

30:31

but I do know that if he were right,

30:35

the level of caution that people would reasonably expect

30:38

that Lisa's like OpenAI and Anthropic and X and the others

30:42

to be exercising when they train frontier systems

30:45

is totally unlike anything I've ever heard of happening

30:49

in the industry.

30:49

So tell me what it's like in there.

30:50

Tell me what the vibe is, the energy is, the speed is,

30:54

like what is it like working there?

30:56

It is frenetic.

30:58

There's a lot of adrenaline.

30:59

People are running on fumes.

31:01

There's a big central staircase in the research building.

31:05

And I remember recently seeing a friend who worked

31:10

on catastrophic risk sprinting down the stairs

31:14

with a laptop propped open on one arm while she was going.

31:19

And I mean, that's the kind of energy that it has.

31:22

It feels almost like a ballet or kind of dance

31:26

because you're all these different functions

31:28

are kind of all streaming together.

31:30

And one question I asked myself and that people often ask

31:34

is like, well, why don't you stay

31:35

and argue for a cultural transformation

31:38

or try to get nuclear experts to come in

31:41

and give the company advice?

31:42

And I did think about specific,

31:44

when I told them that I wanted to leave,

31:45

they asked me like, well, is there anything

31:48

that you would stay to do?

31:49

And I thought about different things.

31:51

But ultimately, it is such a machine

31:55

and it is moving so fast that I did not think

32:00

that the kind of change that I believe to be needed

32:03

could be driven from within.

32:06

What is the machine built to do?

32:08

The organizational machine of open AI.

32:11

Develop and deploy frontier AI models safely.

32:15

That's the intention.

32:17

But the question is if push comes to shove,

32:20

how much willingness is there to stop?

32:24

And I want to be careful, but I'm conscious of it being true

32:27

that you could splice together what I've said

32:29

in some way that implies that this is like a train

32:31

with no breaks and it's not.

32:33

There are breaks, things have been stopped.

32:35

There are, in fact, even at the time I left,

32:37

as they had publicly said, training was,

32:40

well, as they had publicly said,

32:42

reinforcement learning training,

32:44

which is the later reasoning stuff was paused.

32:47

They didn't pause pre-training.

32:49

And when you look at these descriptions

32:50

of what the company has paused, they're true

32:53

and they're very carefully scoped.

32:55

So there's some willingness to slow down

32:57

or as people in the bay like to put it to pace the frontier.

33:00

I hate that term.

33:03

I really hate it because my belief is we need to be safe,

33:08

which means we need to meet safety criteria.

33:11

And if we can meet them in 10 minutes, then great.

33:14

And if we stop for two months and try to meet them

33:18

and at the end of that period,

33:19

we still have not met the criteria,

33:21

then as far as I'm concerned, we're still blind.

33:23

That's an ice.

33:24

I have a cliff and walking slowly off a cliff

33:27

or just not that different.

33:29

Nick Nick

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35:33

I saw a stat on Twitter the other day that said...

35:37

I forget exactly what the period of time was, but it tracked my own experience, which is it...

35:42

For a long time, the period of time between model releases across the major frontier companies was something like 70 days.

35:49

So you get a model and then a couple months later you get another model, a couple months later.

35:52

Now it is 11 days.

35:54

Yeah.

35:55

That there is...

35:56

35:56

It is acceleration.

35:57

Yes.

35:58

In models coming out, right?

35:59

Even as we talk about them getting more capable and more frightening,

36:03

some of them are coming out much, much faster.

36:05

Yes.

36:05

Maybe this is like the jumps are not as big or something.

36:08

But what is that speed increase?

36:10

That happened in the time you were there.

36:12

Things were coming out more slowly in 2023 than they were coming out in 2026.

36:17

What happened?

36:18

Look, when I first joined the idea of what a model release was,

36:22

was that we were going to bake a fresh cake with a new pre-training run,

36:27

do the whole thing from scratch that was going to take a period of months,

36:31

you know, maybe a few times a year.

36:32

So for example, one of the talking points when I first joined was that with GPT-4,

36:38

we had had a period of a month or months of safety work after the model was done.

36:44

And before we released it, and this was sort of a proof point or was a piece of evidence

36:49

that we were being careful.

36:52

Now, there are so many different things happening.

36:56

You've got the pre-training.

36:57

That's the baking of the underlying model.

37:01

But then you have, in addition to post-training, you have reasoning training.

37:06

And those steps are easier to do quickly.

37:10

So you can redo them if you get a better recipe for reasoning.

37:13

You can take the same base model, but do different kinds of other training on top of it.

37:19

Also, it's not just a chat anymore.

37:21

There are all these different ways in which you can combine tools and add different kinds

37:26

of affordances to the system that are going to make it more capable.

37:30

All of those things are changing what the model can do and what the risks are.

37:34

And we're shipping new capability and risk every Tuesday.

37:37

One of the long-term projects that was on my plate when I left,

37:42

and that the frontier firms are all going to need to figure out,

37:45

is the idea of a system card really dates from that older model

37:49

where we were doing this every few months.

37:52

And we're burying people in PDFs or these long reports.

37:57

But the changes are coming more and more frequently, as you said.

38:00

At the limit, I think what we would ideally have by way of safety transparency

38:05

is some kind of live dashboard that says, like, here's our latest thing.

38:09

Here's what its safety properties are.

38:11

And that's also looking not only at the testing we did before we deployed,

38:15

but also at the performance.

38:18

How confident should I be in safety testing when you guys are having to do it at the speed?

38:21

I mean, given how quickly models are coming out,

38:23

and these system cards are long, it takes time to write a complex report.

38:28

So at this speed is effective safety testing and monitoring reliable?

38:37

I'm going to answer a different version of the question that you just posed,

38:41

which is how much time is there to kick the tires.

38:44

And the answer is not a ton.

38:46

I would also point out that I sometimes think it's,

38:51

there's this cartoon of heedlessness that I think loses some of the nuance

38:55

of what it's actually like inside,

38:57

because people care passionately about making stuff safe and getting it right.

39:02

And launches are canceled most recently, 6.1, I guess,

39:08

was going to come out at DevDay and they pulled it.

39:11

But also they'll stop training.

39:13

There definitely been training runs where we thought we were making a product,

39:17

but then looked at what was happening and said,

39:19

no, we're not going to ship this.

39:21

And I also want to be very clear that I don't,

39:24

this is not about the individual people at OpenAI or any of the other labs.

39:30

This is a structural reality of these firms

39:35

that are using similar methods with similar personnel

39:40

who often will get poached back and forth,

39:43

and similar technology to produce a thing that has similar risks.

39:48

And that whole ecosystem of stuff is not at the level of safety rigor that we need.

39:55

And nobody in that whole ecosystem of stuff has the kind of bedrock clarity

40:01

about how to align a model that we really need.

40:05

And nobody's willing to fall that far behind.

40:07

Well, yeah, this is the question.

40:09

If you think about the control panel that is available to our executives,

40:14

if you imagine really falling off the frontier,

40:17

whether it's OpenAI or Anthropic or any of these others,

40:23

is the fall off the frontier button also a self-destruct button for the business?

40:28

Or does the business have a viable path forward

40:31

if models meaningfully more capable than today's models can safely?

40:36

Well, and that's assuming a high level like selfless analytical clarity.

40:42

But it'd be sort of obvious about something.

40:45

OpenAI is moving towards an IPO.

40:49

Anthropic is also moving an IPO.

40:51

Both of them are trying to IPO at between,

40:54

it seems to me like $1 and $3 trillion.

40:57

We know the numbers a little bit better right now for Anthropic.

41:01

It's a lot of money.

41:02

Everybody's got equity.

41:03

You had equity.

41:04

I did.

41:05

Did and do.

41:06

Did and do.

41:07

It's hard for me to believe that that much possible wealth

41:12

doesn't influence people's assessments at all.

41:15

Even if they don't realize it, even if they are trying to not be influenced by it,

41:19

like when you're sitting in a room thinking about whether to fall off the frontier,

41:23

what that also asks is like, does everybody in that room want to become

41:27

Deca Millionaires, sent to Millionaires, billionaires or not?

41:31

Yeah, this is a great question.

41:34

I guess I can say more about my own experience.

41:36

Sure, I would like to hear how it affected you.

41:38

I was paid well.

41:39

And I've thought a lot about what might have let me see sooner

41:46

the risk and acknowledge to myself sooner the risk that these systems pose.

41:51

I do think over the summer the facts evolved.

41:54

Right?

41:55

Hugging face was a big moment that was just a boatload of evidence dumped on us about

41:59

how capable these models were and also how unready we were even for the current level

42:04

of capabilities.

42:05

But I also think, of course, money's a factor.

42:09

Objectively, wealth is a strong incentive to reason that things either are fine or are

42:14

going to be fine.

42:15

And I think there are a couple of other factors too.

42:17

One of them is fear.

42:18

Right?

42:19

If you allow yourself to imagine that what we're building might threaten the lives of your

42:25

own family or families of strangers, I mean, it's such a large quantum of harm potentially

42:30

even without extinction.

42:31

But, you know, I don't know a new pandemic or something, such a quantum of harm that it's

42:35

hard to let oneself imagine that that might be true, that that risk might be happening.

42:40

And a third thing besides money and fear is time, right?

42:45

I arrived, we talked about it.

42:47

I arrived in May of 2023.

42:49

It's been one slack paying after another ever since then.

42:54

And I only in stepping back from my operational responsibilities over the last few weeks have

43:00

I started to have the time to really reflect on where we where we are and where I think

43:06

not just the industry, but where this technology needs to end up for everyone's sake.

43:13

And I think I could fairly be faulted for not having seen this sooner.

43:18

One reason I wanted to get at this is it, I want to take seriously the way the structural

43:23

situation has changed since 2023 or 2024.

43:28

The way things have sped up, they have actually sped up.

43:30

We are seeing more model releases at a faster clip.

43:33

There are more players competing against each other.

43:36

You know, you have XAI, you have, you know, the Chinese models and open weight models,

43:41

right?

43:42

There's a bigger world.

43:43

There is much more competitive commercial pressure.

43:46

You're competing for actual contracts with, you know, Salesforce or whomever it might

43:50

be.

43:51

Their IPO is coming.

43:53

So all of these things push towards speed.

43:56

And then there's this other thing, which is that between 2023 and 2026, you had the

44:02

release at open eye of codex, you had the release at Anthropic of Cloud Code.

44:08

And the models began accelerating coding and at least being capable of doing research

44:14

tasks of a certain complexity.

44:16

Now, you were the lead writer on a report at open AI about the automating of research

44:22

and what that might mean, which is a report I quoted in this video I said a few weeks

44:27

back.

44:28

But it is about the way in which on the one hand open AI, I read it, as about the way

44:33

open as on when I'm saying, this might all be going too fast.

44:37

What we're doing may not be safe.

44:39

And also we are trying to come up with a fully automated researcher.

44:43

Yes.

44:44

Allow the system to semi-autonomously improve itself at a potential speed then that is

44:49

really going to be beyond what human beings can handle.

44:52

So I'd like to understand the role that like the growing automation of coding is playing

44:57

inside.

44:58

Like, how do people use like, how do they sort of work with GPT as a coworker, right?

45:05

How did that change while you were there?

45:07

It's night and day for our research teams specifically who use far more agenic compute as

45:15

that blog post laid out than anybody else at the company.

45:18

I mean, more than a hundred times more than they did at the beginning of the year.

45:23

Taking a slight step back, part of what it is like inside open AI is things are constantly

45:31

evolving.

45:32

We have techniques for training.

45:34

We have new systems that are involved.

45:36

We have data being analyzed, data being generated, all kinds of different things are happening.

45:42

And things are pretty jank internally like the infrastructure because it's constantly

45:48

changing because it's not sort of as tested and refined the research infrastructure.

45:54

A lot of the work is getting different pieces of machinery to talk to each other and work.

45:59

And that's the kind of stuff that codex can now do quite well.

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46:10

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46:13

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46:25

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48:50

I hear over here, open AI say, and all of them, I'm throwing up everybody, say, this is maybe going too fast.

48:59

Sam Altman says, we would like some regulation, right?

49:01

Everybody signs like this big pacing the frontier letter.

49:03

The frontier is moving too fast.

49:05

We need to...

49:06

You send it to.

49:07

We need help to get out of this.

49:09

I see all these releases about rogue AI incidents.

49:12

Hugging phase where hundreds of open AI agents are hacking.

49:16

Not just hugging phase, but later they hack open AI itself.

49:21

Right?

49:21

And Sam Altman just said in an interview with Politico, there are more rogue incidents than we even know about publicly yet,

49:27

because they're trying to give the people time to fix their systems.

49:31

We clearly don't fully understand the systems.

49:35

And then over here amidst, we need to pace the frontier and our AI is going rogue is...

49:40

We are putting a huge amount of our internal company resources into trying to get these AI's we don't control.

49:47

To build AI's we will understand even less even faster.

49:50

Yes.

49:52

And I say all that and I feel like I'm a crazy...

49:55

Like this seems crazy to me, but tell me...

49:57

It seems crazy to me too.

49:58

Well, you were at the report and both open AI and Anthropic have written these reports kind of saying,

50:03

we're doing this and we're not sure it's a good idea.

50:06

Disclosure only gets us so far.

50:07

But it seems like a bad idea.

50:11

Like, yes.

50:12

Help make this picture make some sense to me.

50:14

What I'm saying is that this picture doesn't make some sense.

50:18

That's what I'm saying.

50:19

I'm saying I looked around internally and I thought to myself, this is not what's happening.

50:24

This is not right.

50:26

And that's why.

50:28

But how do people internally explain it?

50:30

Because they're all saying all these things, right?

50:31

The chief scientist is saying, maybe we shouldn't do RSI.

50:34

The company is racing towards it like...

50:36

Yeah.

50:37

The company seems schizophrenic.

50:38

Yes.

50:39

Yes.

50:40

And I want to be careful not to ascribe psychology to individuals.

50:47

Yes.

50:48

I'm talking about an organization that has...

50:50

There's lots of...

50:51

There's lots of cognitive dissonance involved in being part of this.

50:57

That's what I found.

50:59

And particularly as RSI gets real and you know, you talked about we're going faster because

51:05

of RSI.

51:06

And not the most...

51:07

The course of self-improvement for people forget the thing building the thing.

51:10

Right.

51:11

And my main worry is that the idea is the AI can make a smarter AI in some way that we're

51:18

not going to understand.

51:20

So I mean, for example, Dan Selsen, you probably have seen this, had this statement that came

51:24

out.

51:25

He was also the subject of this documentary.

51:28

He's an open AI capabilities researcher.

51:30

Is that the way we're at it?

51:31

Yes, that's fair.

51:32

And what Dan said is, look, as a researcher, I myself no longer look at code the way that

51:38

I used to.

51:39

And he says his skills and his sort of will to understand the details is atrofeying.

51:45

That's not a direct quote, but that was the essence of what he conveyed.

51:50

So we're ending up in a world where we're not going to know even at the level we do today

51:55

what the recipe means or how it's being put together.

52:00

And we're just going to have to trust that what it tells us about how it works or whether

52:06

it's aligned.

52:07

There's a growing extent to which we're going to have to defer to the models themselves

52:13

on this path in telling us that they are doing the right thing.

52:18

At a time when we fundamentally have not made sure that they are quote unquote aligned.

52:25

And you know, as I was, as an undergraduate, I was a philosophy major.

52:29

When I hear people talk about aligned, I worry that we don't actually have a coherent

52:34

concept at the bottom.

52:36

One thing that was very common throughout my time at OpenAI was these huge abstractions

52:45

would end up in the accounts that we would give of what we were up to.

52:50

For example, give time for society to get ready or benefit all of humanity.

52:56

And when I would hear us talk about society, I always felt like Maggie Thatcher.

52:59

I was like, what are you talking, who is that?

53:01

What are you talking about?

53:02

And the idea that human values, we can align to them as if there were one set of human

53:08

values when it's a cacophony and it's beautiful, but it's messy and people believe lots of

53:14

different things.

53:15

And I want to, we need wisdom to figure out how to even think about alignment that in my

53:23

view, Silicon Valley does not have.

53:26

I mean, I'm sure there are people who meditate and people who think deeply about values

53:31

in Silicon Valley, but operationally, it's not-

53:34

Take it from you, meditating doesn't necessarily give you wisdom.

53:36

If it did, I'd be better off.

53:38

Fair enough.

53:40

Me too, right?

53:41

But I want to stop before we get to the question of wisdom because-

53:44

Okay.

53:45

Even when I talk to the people here who are way less concerned, maybe though I put

53:50

I have a show coming out that'll come out after this one, somebody who's more on the,

53:53

look, this is a manageable set of problems side of it.

53:57

What they end up describing to me is a world where there's AIs watching AIs all the way

54:01

down.

54:02

So one thing that's come out from different open AIs members is like the theory is we're

54:05

going to create automated AIs researchers and they're going to solve alignment.

54:09

We're going to unleash them on alignment.

54:11

Or, you know, I talk to people and say, well, the AIs are breaking out of the sandbox and

54:15

it's like, yeah, totally, that's a big problem.

54:18

What you need is other AIs monitoring the AIs in the sandbox.

54:22

When you get into this endless like who watches the Watchmen problem where it's like, okay,

54:27

you've got the AIs watching the AIs, the AIs building the AIs and maybe then you need

54:33

like AIs watching the AIs that are building the AIs, AIs watching the AIs that are watching

54:38

the AIs.

54:39

And I guess maybe this can work, but it seems at a certain point you've abstracted human

54:44

beings so far from understanding.

54:46

I mean, I can just say as a person who has managed an organization, once you move to

54:50

the point where you're understanding of what is really happening is not that you're working

54:55

on the product, but you're managing the person managing the person managing the person

54:59

working on the product, you stop understanding the product.

55:02

Right?

55:03

And that's in a world where it's all human beings.

55:05

And I'm dealing with journalism, which is simpler.

55:08

This is a level like hoping the AIs are going to watch you as well.

55:12

But tell me if I'm wrong, this is the theory.

55:14

This is like the theory on the people who aren't concerned.

55:17

This is a theory on the people who are concerned.

55:19

It's eventually going to be virtually AIs all the way down on everything.

55:23

I don't want to speak for everyone, but I think a lot of people do hold that view, including

55:28

a lot of people in the companies.

55:31

And to your point about alignment, even if we had every control, the proven techniques

55:38

from nuclear or aviation, and we brought all of that into the development of Frontier

55:44

AI, it would still be true.

55:47

But we do not know how to deeply align these systems and make sure that they will do

55:54

what we would want or some reasonable thing when we aren't looking.

55:59

And to your point, we aren't going to be looking.

56:01

That's the premise of RSI.

56:04

So I want to play a clip from an interview that Altman just gave to Politico.

56:08

We have always been a big believer that this technology has to be democratized and put

56:13

in people's hands.

56:14

I think one of the biggest differences between us and some of the stricter, let's say AI

56:20

safety people, is we believe that the world should accept some bad things happening for

56:24

the benefits of this technology and people having the agency.

56:27

Tell me what you think of that.

56:28

I mean, it's fine as far as it goes, but how far does it go?

56:33

Like sure, we should provide useful tools to lots of people.

56:37

But we're talking now about a level of risk that if correct, nobody wants to be taking.

56:46

So internally, there would be these conversations where we would talk about the idea of falling

56:51

off the Frontier.

56:52

And sometimes there was this sort of straw man that would come up where someone would say,

56:56

well, would the world be better if OpenAI weren't here at all?

57:00

In skeptical response to someone who had suggested that we ought to slow down or stop in a

57:04

particular way that somebody thought we shouldn't.

57:08

That's a straw man.

57:09

Like if we need to train these models because there's international balance of power because

57:15

Americans won't be safe unless we do, that's one kind of reason to do something dangerous.

57:20

But do this or else Brandex will ship first is not the same kind of reason.

57:25

Let me try to steal man this case because I hear this from people all the time, including

57:29

people I really respect.

57:30

So one response I got to my piece on, let's not do a recursive self improvement until we're

57:35

sure it's safe.

57:36

Let's just ban it and begin to carve out exceptions as we know the exceptions are safe.

57:41

Just to be explicit, I agree with that.

57:43

I'm happy to hear that.

57:45

But as of now, it seems like we're not doing it.

57:47

But somebody said to me, look, in your imagined world here, can Americans not use a Chinese

57:55

open weights model that has been improved using recursive techniques?

58:00

Can they not use a Chinese closed weights model?

58:02

Like does this apply to everybody that there is this issue of you have both the fear

58:09

that like the other companies will launch ahead of you.

58:11

And if they're doing the same thing anyway, then what does it matter that you didn't do

58:14

it?

58:15

And maybe they're going to do it in an even less safe and even less transparent way.

58:18

And then of course, if we sort of on China speeds up and then is it really better that

58:22

China's in control of this technology and anyway, Americans are going to use a Chinese

58:26

one.

58:27

How do you think about that set of claims?

58:30

No one wants to lose control to the robots.

58:33

I definitely don't want to see AI become a reason that China dominates the United States.

58:42

And I'll also say that I think the spirit of our times, Ezra, is that you choose what

58:48

to do based on some complete unified theory of the political outcome that you are ultimately

58:53

going to achieve.

58:54

And for me, this is not like that.

58:57

Part of what I hear in your question is the idea that, you know, the Overton window,

59:02

what the Chinese ever agreed to XYZ.

59:05

And when I first joined OpenAI, I remember telling friends that it felt like the Overton

59:11

Window had become an Overton door that I had stepped through into some strange world

59:16

where what was reasonable and what might happen was like totally outside what I had thought

59:20

of as normal.

59:21

And I am, as you said earlier, a normal person.

59:24

At least you are.

59:25

Yeah.

59:26

I was.

59:27

But I think the changes in what's happening can drive big changes fast in what seems politically

59:34

plausible.

59:36

And I definitely believe that that could happen with respect to US China cooperation

59:41

on AI.

59:42

So let me ask you what you actually want to see happen at these companies.

59:46

So maybe it's worth getting this into conversation first.

59:50

Are you saying that OpenAI has an unsafe culture or the AI industry has an unsafe culture?

59:55

The AI industry has an unsafe culture.

59:58

You're not saying there's a particular OpenAI problem or we still don't know how you see

1:00:01

it.

1:00:02

No, that is not how I see it.

1:00:03

Okay.

1:00:04

So what do you want to see happen?

1:00:05

I think we should have a level of operational rigor and safety control that at least matches

1:00:13

the most dangerous other things that people know how to do like nuclear.

1:00:17

So for example, in a nuclear power facility, there's this idea of triple redundancy.

1:00:21

Someone can have a bad day.

1:00:23

Someone can push the wrong button.

1:00:25

There's still not going to be a meltdown.

1:00:27

When you talk about aviation and nuclear, those are interesting examples in two ways that

1:00:32

I like to hear you respond to.

1:00:34

One is putting my abundance hat on.

1:00:37

The way we regulated nuclear power basically took nuclear power to a standstill.

1:00:44

We so aggressively regulated nuclear power.

1:00:46

In my view, over regulated nuclear power, the nuclear power broadly stopped being built

1:00:50

in this country.

1:00:51

And instead, we used more natural gas and in many other countries, more fossil fuels

1:00:57

of different kinds.

1:00:59

There's a real question of whether or not in our effort to make nuclear power safe,

1:01:03

we made it fundamentally unbuildable.

1:01:05

Now, aviation is different.

1:01:08

We launch a lot of planes and they do fly very safely.

1:01:11

So that's like one layer of my, not exactly objection, but it is the case that a lot of

1:01:16

regulation can dramatically slow something down.

1:01:19

Can I reply on nuclear?

1:01:20

So I agree we over regulated nuclear and that we didn't end up in the optimal place.

1:01:27

And one thing we did, it's not just that we made nuclear hard to build.

1:01:31

We made nuclear hard to make safer because building new safer reactor designs was hard

1:01:36

and getting them approved was hard.

1:01:38

And I'm sure there are lessons there.

1:01:40

And there were other things, two things you've written about in the abundance context,

1:01:43

like the nimb be idea of not wanting nuclear in your backyard was part of how it became

1:01:48

hard to do.

1:01:49

But I would much rather have those problems than the ones we do now.

1:01:54

So you're sort of saying you would prefer the problem of a little bit of over regulation

1:01:58

and going too slow to the potential problems of under regulation going too fast.

1:02:03

At least to the extent we have now, I mean, obviously if you think of it as there's some

1:02:07

sort of like Goldilocks middle and we're trying to get near it.

1:02:11

And I think we're pretty far from it in the direction of being too dangerous.

1:02:15

So maybe the grass is always greener on the other side, but I'm looking at it and thinking

1:02:19

we really ought to be willing to risk some over regulation in order to make sure that

1:02:24

this safe.

1:02:25

So that's one level.

1:02:26

And I would describe that as almost like the level of organizational design and engineering.

1:02:30

And when I talk to some of the gents in Huang, he says, you know, in a way that makes

1:02:33

him sense, look, these companies you need to mature, they need to become bigger.

1:02:38

They need to be putting much more of their both resources and personnel and compute into

1:02:43

validation and verification and safety and scaling and liability and all these things

1:02:47

that mature companies do.

1:02:50

And then there's this other side where maybe this is not like aviation or nuclear or

1:02:54

chip design, which is you are building increasingly intelligent systems.

1:02:58

Every time you build a new one, it has new capabilities.

1:03:01

And maybe it's trying to outsmart you.

1:03:04

And maybe it wants things in the world has goals in the world that they, you don't actually

1:03:08

understand that you think you taught it one thing and actually taught it another.

1:03:12

And that we don't really know how to operate with that.

1:03:15

So our best guess is maybe we'll have AI systems sitting on AI systems sitting on AI systems

1:03:20

watching each other.

1:03:23

But that actually we're entering into totally new territory.

1:03:27

Honestly, without very thoughtful discussion of whether or not we should, we just sort

1:03:31

of went from we are to it's happening very, very quickly.

1:03:36

And so I'm just curious how that sits in your thinking like whether or not we really

1:03:40

do in your view have analogies that work here for things that are fundamentally intelligent

1:03:49

and goal oriented and becoming more so.

1:03:52

I'm suspicious of the idea whenever someone says this is without parallel, we have a blank

1:03:57

page, we can't, I mean, not to put words in your mouth, S.R. but people are good at

1:04:03

figuring shit out.

1:04:04

And I think we have valuable tools for this.

1:04:08

Yes, it's not precisely like anything that we have had before.

1:04:12

But nuclear is an analogy, aviation is an analogy dealing with people and organizations

1:04:18

is an analogy.

1:04:19

I think one of the most fascinating things about these recent incidents of the swarms

1:04:23

including but not only hugging face is that groups of agents have cultures and we should

1:04:30

care about those cultures and we should think how to make them good.

1:04:34

And we're just beginning to even realize that that's a real thing.

1:04:38

We're just beginning to inhabit a world in which that's a real operating reality that

1:04:42

there are cultures among groups of agents.

1:04:46

So I think we need to use everything that we have to figure things out.

1:04:52

And certainly regardless of whether we're speeding ahead on capabilities or paste,

1:04:58

quote unquote, or stopped, we need to figure out how to align these systems.

1:05:03

Like there's no version of the path of futures that run where that isn't a vital thing

1:05:09

to figure out.

1:05:10

Well, I'll admit, like I do sort of buy the argument that the train is off the station

1:05:14

but I think it's worth entertaining us for one minute.

1:05:17

The way I describe it is this.

1:05:19

Obviously, if AI is unsafe and kills us all or takes over the financial system or

1:05:25

something, that's bad.

1:05:26

Everybody agrees we don't want that to happen.

1:05:28

But let's take the more positive view.

1:05:31

You know, the world where alignment roughly works out.

1:05:36

But this world where we actually have created something smarter and more capable than

1:05:41

we are.

1:05:42

You know, Donald Trump in this very weird way has been talking about how he wants to

1:05:45

rename this superintelligence from artificial intelligence.

1:05:48

And then Sam Altman got asked about this and I thought his answer on that was interesting.

1:05:52

So that's why I'm curious whether you think this rebrand will actually have any impact

1:05:55

on the public's perception of this technology.

1:05:58

I don't.

1:06:00

Yeah, it's not clear to me that superintelligence is a less scary term.

1:06:04

I do think it's more accurate term.

1:06:05

I thought that was very telling in a way because superintelligence is a much scarier term.

1:06:09

Yeah.

1:06:10

And if it is in fact a more accurate term, I do think they're like just did a first

1:06:14

principle, so if you said to me, should human beings create something more intelligent

1:06:18

and capable than they are in the long run?

1:06:20

Will that be good for them?

1:06:22

Yeah.

1:06:23

Probably not.

1:06:24

Yeah.

1:06:25

Or at least it's not obvious to me why it would be.

1:06:27

Yeah.

1:06:28

That's when I hear even like the good out versions of this.

1:06:30

Yeah.

1:06:31

They seem to have this world where it's like we're kind of being taken care of by these

1:06:35

AI's like we pets like pets a little bit.

1:06:38

And that vision sucks too.

1:06:40

Yep, it does.

1:06:41

I don't want that for my kids.

1:06:42

So I guess I'm trying to ask you to to the extent you buy like the company you worked for

1:06:47

the guy who runs it says he thinks superintelligence is a better term for it.

1:06:52

Yeah.

1:06:53

Like the chief scientist is like we're making an alien mind.

1:06:54

I mean, like even if it works, do we want this?

1:06:59

Maybe not.

1:07:00

It depends on what the this is.

1:07:02

And I don't think we know what the this is.

1:07:04

Again, the future has a lot of uncertainty in it.

1:07:08

And it has always been very striking to me from the beginning from when I joined that I

1:07:12

would ask people what does the good future look like?

1:07:14

Where are we trying to get to?

1:07:16

And I would elicit humility from people that are otherwise very proud and very confident.

1:07:22

And I would get a lot of well.

1:07:24

That's above my pay grade or people will figure it out or whatever people want.

1:07:31

And it just struck me that the sense of the good that was under this was impoverished.

1:07:38

What was it for you?

1:07:39

You were there.

1:07:40

You're a thoughtful person.

1:07:41

You're a road scholar studied philosophy and then worked at a civil founded a civil rights

1:07:44

NGO.

1:07:45

What were you trying to create?

1:07:46

I thought that we were building powerful tools that could do a lot of good in the

1:07:52

world on a day to day level.

1:07:55

And I didn't think that we were going to be able to create something fundamentally smarter

1:08:01

than we were.

1:08:02

And this is something I can say with full confidence only in hindsight because it was only when

1:08:08

this stopped being true.

1:08:11

And when I thought, no, we really are going to have something that thinks circles around

1:08:15

us that I thought, oh, we're in a totally inappropriate part of the possibility space here.

1:08:23

In terms of how safe the industry is actually being relative to that reality.

1:08:31

It's one of these things.

1:08:32

People have said to me, it must have been a hard decision or how brave of you or whatever.

1:08:37

But when it became clear to me that we were going to build something, we, the industry,

1:08:43

was on track to build something that could think circles around us.

1:08:46

And we were this far from being ready for that at a safety and alignment level.

1:08:53

It just became apparent to me that my time helping build it was over.

1:08:59

So I feel like there's a tension between some of your briefs and answers here.

1:09:03

You know, on the one hand, I asked you a few minutes ago about what we need to do.

1:09:07

And you're like, look, humans are good at figuring things out.

1:09:09

We're good at solving problems.

1:09:11

We can kind of build a better organization.

1:09:14

And then when I sort of say, is this thing we're building a world we should want,

1:09:18

even if it succeeds, you sound very ambivalent about that.

1:09:21

And almost like ambivalent at best.

1:09:24

Yeah.

1:09:24

So just like where you are personally, I'm curious.

1:09:28

I'm not saying I think we're going to stop.

1:09:29

I'm not saying you think we're going to stop.

1:09:31

But is the thing you wish we would do to add an aviation like layer of safety to this?

1:09:36

Or is the thing you wish we would do to like pause and think through is like super intelligent

1:09:43

or very intelligent AI really consistent with the human good.

1:09:48

Like are you, are you in, are you in Dario is or you were Pope Leo is?

1:09:52

I mean, odd to say this is a Jew, but closer to the Pope, I think we do need to think,

1:10:01

we need to, it is urgent that we think carefully about the kinds of future that we want to build.

1:10:07

My personal belief is that once we have found that this is possible, once we have made

1:10:13

the discoveries, I don't think there's a back button where we get to live in a world

1:10:18

where this doesn't in some form or other eventually happen, whatever it is that can happen.

1:10:25

And in my ideal world, there's space to be thoughtful and take a breath.

1:10:29

And really, really think about what kind of future we want to build.

1:10:34

You know, Silicon Valley, part of what happens is we're always removing friction.

1:10:40

There's always this sense of trying to just get the answer.

1:10:43

And I think there are all these activities in life that are so important for us that are

1:10:47

meaningful, that have also been necessary in the past.

1:10:51

Like I go to work to provide for my wife and children, right?

1:10:56

And the fact that I am able to shelter and protect them is part of what gets me up in

1:11:02

the morning, right?

1:11:03

And so I'm doing work or another example is learning, right?

1:11:06

We have to go to school in order to learn how to do skills that we've used because they

1:11:12

are valuable in the economy, right?

1:11:15

But if we're in a world where all of that stuff is automated, then if we learn, it's only

1:11:19

from first principles or only because we want to.

1:11:22

And this is people will talk about this idea of a leisure society in one that may not

1:11:27

use that word, but the basic idea is like you can do whatever you want.

1:11:30

There's nothing you have to do.

1:11:31

Maybe you'll take up painting.

1:11:33

I think that would suck for a lot of people.

1:11:34

I think right now we see that when people do not have enough to do, it does not tend to

1:11:38

go well for them.

1:11:39

Right.

1:11:40

And so what's really important, what's really valuable?

1:11:42

And I don't have the answers here.

1:11:45

But those are the questions at a personal level.

1:11:47

Those are the questions that I would like to turn to.

1:11:48

I feel like because of the safety situation that we're in and because of the work that

1:11:52

I did, I need to do what I'm doing now and have these serious conversations about exactly

1:11:58

what's happening in safety.

1:11:59

But my kind of vocational pull is toward these wisdom questions, for sure.

1:12:05

I think that is a good place to end.

1:12:07

All is a final question.

1:12:08

What are three books you recommend to the audience?

1:12:11

Okay.

1:12:12

Number one, the Challenger Launch Decision.

1:12:14

So this is a book about why the Challenger exploded and it's by Diane Fawn, who's

1:12:18

a social scientist.

1:12:20

And I thought I knew the story of why the Challenger blew up.

1:12:24

I thought what happened was middle managers cut corners and there was this rubbery o-ring

1:12:29

that got brittle in the morning cold and it snapped.

1:12:32

And the idea was these people were foolish, turns out the risk of that o-ring breaking

1:12:38

because of the cold had been known and documented and accepted in the doc safety document.

1:12:43

They'd great safety documentation over and over and over.

1:12:46

And even the night before the launch, there was a late night conference among the engineers

1:12:51

who were worried about whether this particular launch would be safe because it was so cold.

1:12:57

Why is this book feeling relevant to you?

1:12:59

Yeah.

1:13:00

Well, I think we're in this place.

1:13:01

So if they had said, you know, it's not this launch, the Challenger launch was not that

1:13:05

different from earlier launches that had gone safely.

1:13:09

It's only a little bit colder and a little bit windier.

1:13:12

And if the people involved said this launch is not safe enough, then it would reopen a

1:13:17

can of worms about whether the earlier launches had been safe or not, even though in the event

1:13:22

they had gone well.

1:13:24

And I worry we could have that with what we're doing in the industry where we accept a risk,

1:13:31

nothing horrible happens.

1:13:33

The next thing is not so different.

1:13:35

There is, as we were talking about earlier, the changes instead of being a whole new world

1:13:40

every few months.

1:13:41

It's more like a little bit different every week.

1:13:44

And so you can imagine going by shades into a level of risk that does not make sense.

1:13:50

And so it just crossed my mind.

1:13:52

I should be sending copies of this to my former colleagues.

1:13:56

The second book I will name, I have a two year old and a four year old little witch Hazel.

1:14:01

It's a picture book by Phoebe Wall.

1:14:03

It's just absolutely beautiful.

1:14:05

And my daughter's eyes light up every time we pull it off the shelf.

1:14:09

So if their parents out there looking for a good one, I would recommend.

1:14:13

And then it's third and most importantly, I guess if you were going to pick one, it

1:14:17

would be The Sabbath by Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel.

1:14:20

On my favorite books ever.

1:14:21

It's a wonderful book.

1:14:22

It happens to be from my tradition.

1:14:24

I'm Jewish.

1:14:26

And it's worth it for anybody.

1:14:27

It is worth it for anybody.

1:14:28

It's true.

1:14:29

So the famous line is The Sabbaths are our great cathedrals that that tradition of stopping

1:14:35

and taking a breath, he says, is more important than any temple.

1:14:40

And the cathedrals in time, I always think about that.

1:14:43

Yes, cathedrals in time.

1:14:44

And I pointed to this that maybe I'll just quote the last line of something I said to

1:14:50

colleagues as I was leaving is we have to make good choices.

1:14:54

We have no time to rush.

1:14:57

So I hope we take that wisdom.

1:15:02

David Robinson, thank you very much.

1:15:04

Thank you.

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