What’s the Method to the Midterm Madness?

You can't get away from the fact that there's a war that is making things more expensive for Americans.

And up until very recently, the administration has not really armed any of these campaigns

with the tools, with the message to be able to sing from the same song book on it.

And the president keeps sending different signals.

And that that's made life a whole lot harder for Republicans to cycle.

It's Monday, October 12th. I'm Jane Kostin. And this is what it is.

After President Donald Trump said Saturday that Ukraine needs a new president because Ukraine,

which is at war with Russia, was bombing Russian oil facilities,

Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelinsky responded on Fox News today,

reminding everyone that Ukraine is at war with Russia.

Now we have attacks each one hour Iranian Shaheet's attack us.

Each hour they attack us. And we are not speaking about dozens of Shaheets.

We are speaking about thousands of drones, ballistic missiles,

cruise missiles, how people can hold.

Of course, Trump does not care about Ukraine, but he does care about the cost of diesel,

which is why he announced on Friday that the US would be importing diesel fuel from Russia.

Now, you might remember that Trump signed a sanctions bill a month ago that would let him put up to

100% tariffs on the largest purchasers of Russian fuel.

So I guess he's going to tariff himself.

Federal agents searched the home of Minnesota Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar today

in a massive escalation of a criminal investigation in the final weeks of her reelection bid.

Omar said she will quote, not be silenced and called the search of her home the latest

escalation in Trump's intimidation campaign. The Justice Department confirmed the search

with the nature and scope of the investigation remains unclear.

Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are considering firing US Ambassador

to Greece Kimberly Gilfoil after a series of reports alleging she was engaged in improper

and possibly illegal conduct before enduring her tenure in Athens.

For example, the Wall Street Journal reported that there was audio of Gilfoil bragging about

being flown in private jets and telling an American businessman she wanted to help her get

into a dinner held by Eric Trump, quote, you know, I can deliver the world to you, which you deserve.

Adding quote, I'm going to make you a lot of fucking money. So, you know, not great.

A senior US official said Sunday that Trump and Rubio are, quote, extremely pissed off

by Gilfoil's reported conduct and would likely decide on what action to take this week after the

holiday. I am quote, not very surprised Kimberly Gilfoil is involved in all of this.

Remember those taxpayer funded propaganda ads that Trump was trying to tout his public service

announcements when they were clearly just ego boosts airing during NFL football?

Well, a federal judge ordered Sunday that he must cancel any remaining television commercials

paid for with millions of dollars in taxpayer money to promote his political message,

even as the administration said the ad campaign was coming to an end.

So, when am I getting my refund for the tax dollars I paid so that I could watch Trump look creepy

during an otherwise pleasant NFL Sunday. But I want to talk about what we're learning about the

biggest midterms contest. Joining me is Joshua Burns, co-author of Plutico Playbook and host of

The Conversation with Joshua Burns. Joshua Burns, welcome to Why Today.

Yay, Jane, thanks for having me. So, you spoke with Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate

Byron Donalds earlier this month and I was interested because he told you that Trump, quote,

doesn't want yes men and that Donalds can do his own thing when it comes to Florida,

when it comes to data centers and the host of other issues. Now, I don't believe that Trump doesn't

want yes men and I don't think you do either. But what did that answer tell you about how Trump is

doing in Florida? Well, look, one of the reasons I was really excited to talk to Donalds is because he

is having to do this high wire act when it comes to the president. The reason Byron Donalds is Byron

Donalds in politics today is largely because of Trump. He was an act light early on. Trump endorsed

him and cleared the field for him in the gubernatorial primary in Florida. But he really put Byron

Donalds on the map. And so you're seeing all over in these races in the cycle, Republicans start to

try to distance themselves. It is especially hard for someone like Donalds, given he grew up,

basically politically, in Trump world. And so we saw him before I sat down with him sort of change

his website. There are really very few Trump preferences on his website now, which he says is just

because they just it was a long planned, you know, change to the campaign vibes. But that answer,

the yes, the yes, man answer. It's kind of the best that he can do in this moment. He cannot

afford to fully put distance between himself and the president. But you saw in in in Florida,

Republican Congresswoman Maria Salazar released an ad standing in front of the White House saying

Mr. President, your immigration policy is bad for Latinos in Florida and you're losing voters.

I mean, that's the contrast that you have to sort of take into consideration when you're thinking

about what Byron Donalds is having to do. Like there's a Florida Republican Congresswoman telling

Trump that his policies are bad. Byron Donalds just cannot afford to get away with that. And so I

think he is doing the best that he can to not shun the president, but also, you know, try to carve out

some independence. Now, in contrast, which I thought was interesting, is that you also spoke with

Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, who she told you that Texas voters are in a

quote, post partisan moment, which I understand it's funny because you have Byron Donalds who's

running as a Republican and a Republican state, but still has to kind of steer away from the most

important Republican and Republican politics. But you also have a candidate in Texas who is

arguing that she's a different kind of Democrat. She's running a different kind of campaign.

She's got three time Abbott voters in her ads. She's making this argument that this is beyond party.

What evidence would you need to see to determine whether or not this post partisan Texas is real?

Yeah. I mean, Texas has been the white whale for Democrats for so long. We can talk about the

James Tyler, we go, can Paxton of it all to me. I was really shocked to see the numbers and the

gubernatorial race. Like the Senate race is, of course, everyone's super focused on because it's

a national story and it means a lot for control of Congress, but Ken Paxton is just a bad candidate.

And so what was more shocking to me was to see the incumbent Republican governor of Texas, of

Republican state suddenly have to spend money and fight to ward off this challenge from Latina

Democrat for the governor's seat. I mean, that to me is totally shocking. I mean, I think I do think

Hinoosis chances are lower than than Talleriko's, but the fact that it's even a conversation

is absolutely mind-boggling. And she has been almost like put blinders on when it comes to any sort

of cultural issues. She is running away from the culture wars in a huge way. It was very

difficult to get her to even engage on any of that stuff. And it's wild to think how different

this moment is for Democrats like her. I mean, we talked about abortion. Of course, Texas has some

really some of the most aggressive anti-abortion laws in the country. And when I asked her about it,

she basically said, listen, I don't think there's much that I can do as governor. And that's not the

issue that I'm going to be focused on. And like if you heard a Democrat say that in the 22 midterms,

like they would be over, right? They would think they would have been canceled almost immediately.

But Hinoosis doubles down on that. She just does not want to touch LGBTQ issues, abortion issues,

anything that has that sort of culture war flavor. She's like, not me. I'm not doing it. And Pivot's

too, the economy Pivot's due data centers, which is one of the ways that she's been able to make

inroads with some of those three time Trump and Abbott voters where AI is not a partisan issue.

It is a polarizing issue, but it is not a partisan issue as much as the president is trying to make

it one. You have both Democrats and Republicans right now trying to take the posture of like we're

going to be aggressive when it comes to big tech. We're going to protect communities from

from this stuff. And Hinoosa has been really successful in going to places in the Panhandle and

in rural parts of Texas and the border areas of Texas and having those conversations.

And it's it just mind boggling what is going on in some of these states right now.

Yeah, it was funny because we were just talking about Florida and you've seen Florida

governor Ron DeSantis take a very anti-AI, anti-big tech, anti-data center stance, which is not how

Trump feels. But do you think that something I've been thinking about is that I've noticed that

successful Democrats, the ones who, sure they get a lot of money from Act Blue, but they tend to

do they do well in state. They focus on local issues. They focus on the issues that their state,

their area cares about. They're not trying to make their race into a national story even if it

becomes one. But in contrast, we're seeing from Republicans who are basically like I will go on Fox

news. I will go anywhere. I will talk about all of this like kind of national stuff. I'll make

everything into a national story that contrast seems very different from what this looked like.

You know, you mentioned haloriko. This feels a little bit different from how previous white whale

Texas Democratic Senate candidates have looked. Yeah, totally. I mean, you think back to the

Beto days and I still remember that Instagram shot of Beyonce with a Beto hat. And like it was

a vote shoot. It was a vote of shoot for me where I was just like, oh, oh, yeah. And like,

tellerie could have did the Casey Musgrave thing. But like I do think that listen,

the reality is that the Democratic brand nationally is still in the toilet. People don't like

the Democratic party. They do like individual candidates. And so the smart candidates are focused

on their own race on defining themselves. I mean, taleriko has not campaigned with a national

Democrat except Obama like they went to the taco thing. But he has said, I think, pretty clear

signals that he does not want or need at this point. Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom coming in.

He is more popular in Texas than any other national Democrat that you could name right now. And so

it wouldn't be helpful. In fact, it might be harmful. I also sat down with

Reverend Adam Hamilton in Kansas, which is a whole other. I mean, we can dig into that. But he told me,

like, I don't want Kamala Harris here. She can stay in California. Chuck Schumer. He said he told

Chuck Schumer to his face that he is a liability in Kansas. And by the way, the Schumer super pack

is actually spending in that race right now. Because in part, I think because of his stance on this

stuff and he's so candid about it, it actually is a real contest, which again, Kansas is totally

crazy. But I think that's the lesson that like, there's a world in which Democrats learn all the

wrong lessons from this midterms if they win big. I think Charlie Cook said, like, it's not a

blue wave. It's a red undertow. I think that that's that's sort of true. But I also think that it is

very specific individual candidates that are doing a great job because they're locally focused.

And there's just an absolute anti establishment, anti incumbent sentiment across the country.

Right now, it's also why in parallel, you're seeing Republicans potentially do better in Minnesota

in the Senate race there than people were expecting because voters are mad at democratic

government of Minnesota. And there might be some backlash there. So I think it's less

that the Democratic Party is like rising from the ashes suddenly and much more that people are

just pissed off and want to see change. Right. I think it's also important whenever we're talking about

how the Democratic Party is viewed. A lot of the people who are most mad at the Democratic Party

are Democrats. Yeah. They are Democrats who are like, you guys suck. What's going on? How do we

keep losing to these people? Which is why you're definitely seeing a much more, how to put this

pugnacious stance from Democrats running in Michigan. And as you mentioned in Kansas, I actually

wanted to ask you about your conversation with Adam Hamilton. He was the founding pastor of the

country's largest United Methodist congregation. And as someone who attended a UMC church for a while,

I can see why he's very good at handling arguments and disagreements because that's what they do.

That's their whole thing. But you asked him whether or not he thought Trump was a Christian.

Why was that an important question to ask? I think that in this moment, Democrats and Republicans

are activating religious voters in different ways. And to see people like Talleriko, people like

Adam Hamilton, Democrats wear their religion on their sleeve in this way that I think we really

haven't seen for a really long time. And there's a debate, I think, among religious voters of what

they actually want to see from leadership and how they want to see faith handled. And evangelical

voters flocked to Trump. I mean, he was built up into sort of a Christ-like figure among us are

certain faction of the MAGA base, which stands in such contrast to the way he actually behaves

in public and in private. I mean, to sort of who he is and how he represents himself day to day.

And I wanted to understand how Adam Hamilton, who is so faith-forward in his identity and in how he

he runs his campaign, how he sees that. And in that context too, whether he sees an opportunity for

Democrats to be able to reclaim some of that faith. I mean, there's been this trend where religion,

the American flag and patriotism has become in our American culture, kind of like conservative

coded, which has been strange to me because I don't think that necessarily needs to be the case.

And Democrats are trying to take some of that back now. And I think that debate and that

tug of war is a really fascinating one. We'll get back to my conversation with Joshua Burns in

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it is theirs. Let's get back to my conversation with Joshua Burns. So let's talk about Trump.

Trump is actually back in Ohio today. His show is in 10 days. Now he has said pretend

I'm on the ballot and Democrats are like bet. Let's do it. Our voters are incredibly motivated.

But in Ohio specifically, both the Senate race and the gubernatorial race are far closer than

Republicans expected. What's going on there beyond the Trump of it all? It's the environment.

I think there's a lot of the same story across the board right now. Republicans can't get away from

the not paid for advertising that is everywhere, which is the gas stations, like huge, huge signs

constantly throughout your drive saying the price of gas is too high and it's because of

actions by this White House. But I think it's just impossible for Republicans to run away from

from the reality. I watched my Johnson, the speaker of the House, has been campaigning relentlessly

for Republicans and I followed him on the trail in Arizona. He was talking about the big beautiful

bill, no tax on tips, no tax on social security, the border being closed.

There was this massive elephant in the room named Iran that he had a much harder time talking

about. Mostly didn't bring it up. And when he did, he was like, well, there's this war.

Don't worry about it. We're going to wrap it up. It's going to be wrapped up ASAP.

Of course, then the president comes out and says, nope, not going to be over till the midterm.

So he's not exactly helping Republicans with that messaging. And that's actually been the frustration

that I've heard from a lot of Republican operatives is like, yeah, you can't get away from the fact

that there's a war that is making things more expensive for Americans. And up until very recently,

the administration has not really armed any of these campaigns with the tools, with the message

to be able to sing from the same songbook on it. And the president keeps sending different

signals. And that that's made life a whole lot harder for Republicans to cycle.

Yeah, it's funny because you're seeing, you know, I saw Fox News piece today that essentially

argued that like, oh, well, the issue is that what Ohioans want is populism. And I'm like, no,

no, Steve Shabbat won like a billion house races in a row while being the most boring person alive.

That's, no, no, that's not what they're looking for. That's where I'm from. That's not what they're

doing. No, no, that's not. And again, I think like, I think there's a good chance, wrong lessons

are going to be learned. Like, you know, if a duel else I had wins in Michigan, it's suddenly going

to be like, yeah, super progressive left, like DSA, like this is the way that everyone should go.

It's like, no, like, there are very specific conditions that are happening right now.

There's going to be a lot of motivated reasoning.

I mean, Abdul has already been saying like, if I win, I'm like, I'm the road through 28 runs through

me basically. And you know, he very well might end up wielding a lot of influence. But I think that

there are a lot of other factors on play that Democrats really need to think about. You know,

so I think sometimes when you when you win, and if that happens, and again, like, who knows,

polling is crazy. Right. I think, I think right now actually some of the anecdotal evidence that

I've been seeing is more compelling to me than the polls, just because the polls freak me out.

Right. We have been burned so many times. Right. I mean, to that point, I keep thinking about how,

like, you know, the fact that the GOP is like, we're going to pull money out of North Carolina,

and we're going to put it into South Carolina. That's the moment where I was like, oh, they're

worried, worried. Right. Right. Like I did some reporting for playbook a couple of weeks ago on

the front row joes, which if you have not been to a million Trump rallies, like I have, you might

not know, but they're they're the guys and gals. By the way, that like spend their lives traveling

around to as many Trump rallies as possible. Like many of them have like sold or given up their

homes, got our v's and they get there ahead of time and they're like always as close to the front

as possible, Trump shouts them out. And I talked to two of them who have had complete 180s on Trump.

Like, and these are these are people again who like dedicated their lives since like 2016

to this man and to following him and to supporting him. And two of them now there are many others

that are still staunchly supportive of him. But if people who have had such unshakable faith for so

long are now breaking from the president, I'm like, that says that says a lot to me. And you know what,

it's it's the Epstein vials and the Iran war are the two things that have them just absolutely

devastated and feeling betrayed by this guy. So someone who hasn't been devastated by Trump is Elon

Musk, who's poured nearly $300 million into GOP campaigns this cycle after saying he wasn't going to

get in politics again. But after what happened with Wisconsin Supreme Court race last year, we're

Elon Musk's front and center and didn't help at all is Elon or the specter of Elon or big tech,

for example, an albatross for Republicans? I don't think Elon as a character is helpful for

Republicans. I think his money is as far as money. Like we'll see how much money in politics

is a fact. I mean, it's obviously a factor, but whether or not it can pull someone like

can pack stand over the finish line. Well, I think there'll be a lot of talk about how much dollars

can influence voters and where there might be like, you know, more where the return on investment

might fall flat. But but no, Elon himself does not help at this point. But I do think he's this time

around putting less of himself out there and more of his cash. And I think that is a smart move

on his part. I mean, I think yeah, they'll take his money happily. Will they want him like jumping

around on the on the stage, flashing his belly and running around with a chainsaw. I don't I don't think

that will be as desirable for the candidates. Now that sounds terrible. So we have Reuters

Ipsos has Trump's approval at 32%. Democrats leave the generic ballot by about nine points.

Americans are unhappy with the economy at historic levels. Like if you, you know, if it's the day

after election day and Democrats take Congress, that would be basically the story here. But are there

races that people aren't talking about enough or that people, you know, haven't been discussing where

you're like, this is a bell weather. These are races where if this goes in this particular

direction, it will tell us a lot about this particular election or the future for the next two years.

I keep feeling like there's going to be a surprise somewhere. There are a lot of states that we

spend a lot of time talking about right now in the final stretch. Or I'm like, it's not crazy

going to happen in Mississippi. You know, it's Nebraska going to be wild. Like I just feel like there's

there, there might be something that pops off that that none of us were really expecting to.

I also, I also think that there is some caveatting that that Democrats should be doing right now.

Because look, they're simply because of redistricting. There simply aren't as many seats to swing.

Like there's no way to win like 70, you know, to swing like 70 seats right now because the redistricting has

just narrowed the margins that are even humanly possible in the house. But I do think that Republicans

between between redistricting between the insane amount of cash. And you know, a lot of state

legislatures that are Republican control that could have have an impact on election like implementation

and execution, you know, voting access, all of that stuff. There are advantages that Republicans

have. And I don't think we can totally discount that. I will say though on the redistricting front,

I think watching all of those districts around the border in Texas is going to be really,

really interesting because voters of color are angry. And they're also, and they're not a monolith.

And there's a lot of different communities. And there are a lot of caveats I can say here. But

all of the people that I've been talking to, both voters, experts, pollsters, researchers,

people doing focus groups, there are larger trends. Voters of color are angry. The ones,

the Latino voters, especially that voted for Trump in 2024. I feel like they're not getting

what they were promised. And they're either going to stay home or potentially vote for Democrats,

not all of them, but some of them. And they're also fed up with Democrats. And so there's no more

taking, there's no more taking black and brown voters for granted. You just can't even come

to Harris was telling black voters recently, like you need to be more transactional. And the folks

that I've been talking to that are organizing black voters are saying that they, you know,

don't stop promising people stuff. Talk about what you have actually done. And if you've

actually done stuff to benefit the community, then that's the way you can get their vote. If you

haven't, like, see you later. And that I think is going to be a huge, huge shift in the way,

both Democrats and Republicans calculate because Democrats have taken these voters for granted.

Have assumed they were going to stay with them. And Republicans, I mean, this is one point that

Byron Donald's made in our conversation. You know, he's advertising his ads, his outreach,

he is trying very deliberately to reach black voters. And he said, you know, one of the reasons

that Republicans haven't really been doing that in the past is because of the consultant class,

because they like discounted the idea that you could actually have productive conversations there.

And he's trying to do it. And so I think both parties are now going to be battling it out for

these folks who aren't really, you know, buying what anyone's selling right now.

Dasha, thank you so much for joining me. This is so fun. Thanks, Jane. That was my conversation

with Dasha Burns co-author of Political Playbook and host of the conversation with Dasha Burns.

Before we go, election day is right around the corner, which means you only have a few weeks left

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Remember, this whole democracy thing only works if we do. This message has been paid for by

Votes of America. It is not authorized by Andy Kennedy or Kennedy's committee. That's all for

today. If you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a review. Let's enjoy our continuing

series of Ken Paxton leaks until your friends to listen. And if you aren't reading,

and not just about how in a leaked 2014 deposition, the Texas Republican Senate candidate said that

a donor gifted him 10,000 shares of stock to make God happy. Like me, what today is also a

nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at crooked.com slash subscribe. I'm Jane

Kostin, and why doesn't anyone ever give me thousands of dollars worth of stock to make God happy?

What am I doing wrong? What today is a production of crooked media. Our show is produced by M.L.I.4,

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