Title Pie at the All-Star Break | Group Chat

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You

Hello and welcome to group chat. I am Justin Ferrier and joining me Rob Mahoney Jake Kyle man

All-star weekend is upon us and thus the activating is about to start Rob. Are you ready to activate?

I'm never ready to activate you seem activated though

I had a all-star is not usually your event, but I'm I'm getting a different kind of energy from you this year

Yes, I was afforded the opportunity to go to LA and do a minimal amount of work and I was like let's fucking go

Yeah, normally you hear from the old jaded journalist types the capital J's that

Just I don't know if you fall into this category you are kind of grizzled in a vet by now

Capital J

Yeah, and normal normally

Capital J Jagger off more likely than I'm all right

But no, I mean usually you just hear people like Jesus Christ they go into that like Nick Nolty begrudging voice

But yeah, you seem you seem a little extra pep. What's your favorite event?

What are you excited to go see rookie game three-point shooting basketball without borders name one please first of all

I think if you've been to one maybe two all-star weekends

I think you've become jaded because that event sucks like just going to the all-star weekend sucks because it's just a big

Gold party or you go to a bunch of activations, which are I guess advertisements or

Meet and greet sort of things. I don't even really know how to describe them

And you know how much I hate both of these things. Yes. I just left out the first line item on all-star sucks is it's a big party

You like all-star weekend. No, no don't get me wrong. I'm I'm ultimately in your camp like

Yeah, I like it when the events are good the problem with this year is the pools do not seem the most promising though

I know your heart must swell Justin with the fact that Damien Lillard is gonna compete in the three-point contest

That must mean something to you personally, but for the rest of us

I'm I'm just hoping that there is some semblance of entertainment and literally anything that's going on this weekend

Yeah, I think it was a bad sign that they had to pull Damien Lillard literally off the injured list in order to

Defend his two-time three-point contest title. I they'll probably be something like we always have such a low opinion of the

Dung contest right now that at this point you can only exceed those low expectations

So maybe there's something there. I think I'm gonna go on Saturday Rob

I think you might go on Saturday as well. Yeah, we're gonna record a podcast after Sunday's game

So there's a little bit of curiosity there. Honestly, I'm more curious with to see what Adam silver cooks up into the press conferences before the game

Because I think he has a lot to answer for these days. Mm-hmm. You want to hold him to account

Yeah, I'm gonna put on my fedora and break out my notepad and be like sir. Yeah. What do you think about the tanking?

I mean, we need answers clearly. Honestly lots of people do and lots of people have been emailing us at a bringer group chat at gmail.com

With their potential tanking fixes

We might have to do like a full-on anti-tanking mailbag at some point because

The solutions are many they're plentiful. They're not all good, but I appreciate the spirit really stirred a hornet's nest with that

Not you have that not the Charlotte one it's since they're out of the lottery conversation in the tanking realm these days

But yeah, people people had takes people were very fired up about the tanking thing in a way that kind of spiked in an unusual way

So people are passionate about it probably more than I expected because I think

Like I was telling you guys off air

I think maybe over time you just get a little bit of a resigned

Defeatest attitude about it when you nothing seems to work

But if the public is in the indication there is a real appetite to push towards solving this

Well, welcome to the resistance brother

If there's one thing people love more than fake trades and photoshopping players into Lakers jerseys

It is coming up with solutions out of fixed tanking or just the league in general. So I'm not surprised that you got the crush of emails over there

Look, I'm just glad that you I mean you Justin of all people had the fire in your belly capital J yourself

Thank you for dragging us along

Thank you for bringing our listeners into the resistance with you because I think Kyl and I just needed to be galvanized and

You sufficiently galvanized us

Shake it. Yeah, just the revolution over here of Justin

Rob I'm more concerned about you're like two factor authentication on how many Google emails are you going bouncing between because you've got

There's a lot you're checking them all. I'm just kind of like when you hop on to search or you like making sure

You know, I know you don't want to incriminate any of your search histories and your other Gmail accounts

I'm just it seems like it's a circus over there how you manage and all that it's a bit of a circus

But you know, these are the things we do for podcasting these are the things we do for our listeners ship to to make sure that they feel heard on such important matters is fighting tanking

Right well speaking of feeling heard you could hear us on two different days going forward here because we're moving our schedule

Post all star break Monday Thursday is our new published schedule. We were doing Sunday Wednesday

So not all that different depending on when the pod hits your feed

But so after Sundays pod that will be up on Monday. We'll go to Thursdays during the week. That's the new schedule

We're very excited for him to get to do normal Monday morning pods again

But yeah, just check that out any other business before we get into today's action

Not a single bit. Let's get to it

All right, so we did title pie

Couple weeks ago. What was it around the quarter mark? You said that was a long time ago. It was like

Yeah, I looked in the notes. It was it was way back actually that was title pie was

Yeah, no been between the 18th and the 7th episode so late November so in the last time we did it

Yeah, some early pie, but now this feels like an appropriate time to dig in

Just because we had all the moves at the deadline

I don't know how many of them will actually affect the title race. I definitely want to get into that

But it feels like we know where the league is in terms of just like the the players are all set

Minus injuries. This is what we're going forward with and so this is a good time to start the exercise

I'll be honest. I don't know how you guys felt broadly, but I kind of discounted most teams in this race

I basically have a big two and then everybody else. Did you guys organize it similar or late?

I kind of have a big one and then a lot of question marks and then a lot of shrugs and babies

But I do think the bottom is kind of fallen out. It's I think two things have happened

The odds have flattened slightly just because the thunder are not on the torrid pace that they were when we last did this exercise in November

So you got to bring them down to earth a little bit

Um, and at the same time some of the teams that I was saying maybe hopefully if if if

The Orlando magic for example get their shit together maybe they could have even one percent of the title pie

I mean those crumbs are just accounted for at this point and there's and there's really no reason to throw them their way given

And I say that magic is just a placeholder, but a lot of those teams that were

You know, maybe dependent on getting one move getting one good month of basketball momentum behind them in order to really prove themselves as contenders

And we just haven't seen that for a lot of the hopefuls

Yeah, that's an app description. I think because you know, okay

See it was funny to think about the blistering just toward pace that they were on that even though that has flattened

There's also been some sort of

Aligning factors for the teams that were buying to catch them that have made it a little less bleak in terms of the odds of that happening

Uh, but then what you said about the crumbs. I think that's a good descriptor to where when I did this

My optimistic self just wanting to daydream and think about other teams having a chance

I had a bunch of crumbs. There were a lot of ones down there and then I got looking at it

I was sitting there and you know, I was like, you know what?

I'm just gonna dirt devil off the counter all these crumbs. There's no chance

Why do I even have them there these points deserve need to go to other teams and that's where I ended up

I have no crumbs

You don't even get a fucking morsel unless I can actually picture you

Hoisting that lumbarity or the uh, Larry O'Brien trophy. I almost said lumbarity. I got the Super Bowl on the mine

Why don't we dig in here though?

I assume you'll have the same team at number one

Which is the Portland Trailblazers. Okay, they got they got Danny. I'll have to you back and I gotta go see right

No the the thunder number one despite all the injuries of lay

I guess the only big concern here is just when is she gonna come back and where will they be in the standings as a result

And will they have their full complement when the playoffs start? Yes

And I think one thing with this has been kind of clarified since again, we lasted this a couple months ago is

It now just seems like a very distinct possibility that J. Dub's hand will not be right basically all season

And it's gonna be something he's kind of playing through and working through all the time

That part is fine to me like it is a variable

It is something that the thunder are gonna have to navigate

I just think ultimately they have so much going on between the clearly elite defense, but also in offense

Shay being able to stretch basically as far as he needs to he's the single most unstoppable score in the league

Plus everything you're getting from the AJ Mitchell's and the Aaron Wiggins's and like those depth pieces that are good scores

Plus the three-point shooting plus the activity in transition and what that gets you

I just think that

Whatever questions you might have about J. Dub or their offense or whatever perceive vulnerability

We've seen in the thunder over the last six weeks or so

Just don't really pull them down from this top spot whatsoever

They might narrow their chances ever so slightly, but like I went from 40% on the last title pie to 35% here

Still to me like the the overwhelming favorite to win

I'm still at 40, but it is interesting because you know last 10 they're five and five without Shay

Offensive efficiency has come down three-point shooting not moving the ball as much

I think in his absence. I think it's sort of

painted

An area where someone does need to step in whether or not it's jalen new with the compromise hand

I just think in terms of their penetration that does the initial

Attacking like slot whoever that is I think that we've seen some of that stagnate and his absence granted

They have lost to they haven't really had any like stinker losses other than the Pacers on the season

I mean all the other teams that they've lost to are pretty competent, you know playoff level teams. So

the other thing here is just

Shays, you know abdominal strain

Um, I just kind of wanted I'm not an expert on this by any by any stretch, but I thought you were the admin

Yeah, it's funny to read it's a really

Wide range of outcomes here you'll hear you'll read something it'll be like

Two-three weeks and then I read something where it was like it if it's a

Depending on the type of strain. It can be several months. I know this held Chris Bosch out for quite a while

Didn't it in the playoffs if I'm not mistaken? I forget which year that was um, I don't know if Shay comes back

And he's like compromise at all or he aggravates that again. How vulnerable do you guys think they are?

I think this is my concern with the thunder overall though and this exercise really kind of lay that out for me

Where it's like I don't really feel super bullish on the thunder because I feel like there are more source spots

Forgive the pun than ever before. I think like for the fact that Shay

Ishet just like hasn't really kind of had the breakout game we hope for even though

Nobody is around like the other game. He was still taking 10 shots when he was basically like sharing the ball with Isaiah

Joe and Aaron Wiggins types

Don't love that especially for a guy that I think we all agreed should have made the all-star team

But it's really about the lack of competition beyond the thunder

Rather than I think that thunder are just bulletproof because like after the second spot for instance on my list

I just didn't know where else to turn to because everyone seems to be kind of bunched together

And so on the one hand

Maybe that's a backdoor case for all these other teams on the other hand

The case is still pretty strong for the thunder just looking at them empirically

It's like the net rating pretty similar to last year defensive rating similar to last year

There's still so much of a foundation that I feel like at the very least they get the nod

But I'm only at 30% actually came down pretty considerably because I do think the race is compacted right now

I do I do want to see where that those

Slices went for you JV because you're right like if you look at the next Western conference contenders

I would say there's been some teams that have taken a step back over the last couple months the Denver Nuggets in particular

I mean just every person on that roster seems to have a soft tissue injury of some kind that they're either working their way back from

Or out with right now and so whatever health concerns you have about shea in the thunder

I would think double and triple in the case of the nuggets and so

The odds have to go somewhere and if you're taking away from taking them away from the thunder

Did you find that they went elsewhere in the west or did they level out to the east or where do you think that went?

Yeah, I think that's probably where I differ from your guys because I I still think that the the Nuggets are pretty much the clear cut number two with a bullet like I have

The thunder at 30 I have the nuggets at 24

Despite the fact that both Watson and Aaron Gordon are out and Gordon seems perpetually out

And I do wonder what that means for their defense right now their defense has been atrocious

I think they've been 24th even with yoke it's still back out there

He doesn't seem like he's moving particularly well

So there is a lot of like way more concerns with what the nuggets are doing

I just feel like if they're reasonably healthy

They do have the counter punch to a lot of the competition that they're gonna face including the thunder

Like I still think if you have enough guys if cam is playing if Watson is playing if Gordon gives you any minutes

I might favor the nuggets just outright in that series not just like if certain guys aren't there enough for the thunder

I mean, it's certainly the rematch we all want and the nuggets are

To me to me and by the numbers like the best offense against elite defense and that's

Like the quandary of playing okc. Right. It's like how do you crack this pressure? How do you crack this front?

How do you make up enough activity on the back line and keep your spacing intact in order to run your stuff without getting completely shaken out of it

And yoke it certainly gives you the ability to do that when he's healthy when he's playing his full alignment of minutes when he's moving well

I just I want to believe in Denver and I think in terms of their play they've given us lots of reasons to believe in them

It just seems so shaky in terms of health

And they haven't been able to have all their guys together for any significant stretch all season

Maybe that's a reason to believe in them more to think that for as good as they've been and they've still been quite good

That they'll be even better when they finally have their full alignment of players that they're disposal

But I kind of need to see it at this point especially if we're going to be

potentially taking down a team like the thunder

Yeah, I think they're going to need to have some pretty

They're going to really need that continuity to click into place fast

Because we're getting to the point to use the runway analogy again where they're running out of runway for this to take off and reach that

High of playoff

Fluidity like everything sitting on all cylinders and specifically in the defense of into the floor

They're going to have to be at the at the top of their game to to compete with okay

See, I think because you know if Gordon's not is Gordon going to be back these hamstring things

If we deal with with this forever

Brown who you're depending on to be like a point of attack guy and assignment guy and irritant on defense

I think it's just going to put a lot of pressure on them to be

Exemplary on offense with not much wiggle room like in the playoffs and I just I worry about that

I flatten them to they're at 20%

It would be a little higher obviously. I'm just my skepticism is growing about that coming together

But then I don't know I'm kind of I'm I'm in this kind of

tumultuous balance between I really really do like their continuity

And I think that they know who they are and I think think they could click into place faster than the average team

Because they do have so much championship pedigree and yoghurt clicks everything into place

It's just getting more worrisome by the minute

So over the course of the season

So not just like a past six games with yoghurt not even past month since jerry first whatever

This is a big old sample here 24th and defense overall which is pretty concerning

Gordon's spec to be out about another month and so if we're saying mid march

You really only get like a week or so of competitive basketball probably before teams start to

Hit the button one way or another so you're right like it really is a forecast though

I think this really is more of a discussion about like the rest of the field versus the nuggets because I had a hard time after number two

Coming up with the 13 so where'd you guys land with nuggets in terms of percentages?

So I had the nuggets at just 13% in terms of their number two. They're my number two. Yeah. Okay. What'd you have Kyle 20?

Okay, so

They're about yeah, but you I think it's clear as you said Justin that these are the top two

true contenders in the west like they have solidified themselves by play by potential

Anything else would be a somewhat surprising outcome in terms of a team actually making it through the western conference gauntlet

And I'm eager to get into those conversations and see how all that goes

But I just I keep defaulting to the thunder

I just like I for as much as we want to explore these other possibilities for as much as I would love to believe that the nuggets will be full

Available and healthy and playing their best basketball

I just don't know that we're ever going to get there this season

It might just be the kind of curse year for them where it's starting stop the whole way

And they're still really good because of the players they have but ultimately as Kyle mentioned like they just never quite get the full momentum

of everything they were supposed to be

How many teams do we think actually has like

Legitimate not even to the finals have like legitimate multi-round gumption. I'm gonna trademark that right now

Oh, yeah, they'll put the multi if we could have a stamp and a stamp sound. I said that would be great

Officially approved multi-round gumption. I I think I mean, okay see in Denver

I think have separated themselves in the fact that I've talked about this before just that they know what they do and they know the counters to what they do

Well, I'm like San Antonio. I don't really trust that they've developed all that stuff

Minnesota maybe you know in the west like since they've done it before and their team is largely kind of what it's been

Passed that it's just hard to find teams with multi-round gumption to say it again

It's a great question. Why don't we take a quick break and we'll get into just that

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Yeah, I think the field is really spotty because you have a group of teams that seems

to be on the rise for the most part.

A lot of these are young teams that are really trying to aspire to something new and new

level that we haven't seen before, but then you're like, what about what about this?

What about that?

You really do need to forecast more than you're really banking on anything else.

I had the spurs as my third team, but I'll be honest, I was waffling practically up until

we started this podcast.

Yeah.

If only because last night was just like the type of haymaker, like knock you on your

ass performance from Victor Webinama, like that you just really just sticks in the back

of your brain.

When you're doing something like this, you had 40 in 25 minutes, and I know it was against

most of like the third stringers on the Lakers, because God forbid anyone on Lakers as a superstar

plays in a game.

I had some excuses about that.

The Lakers had some heavy rotation players out there.

Granted, they didn't have any bigs, they didn't have any defense, but I heard the excuses

went a little far, but I don't know.

You like those Ronnie James minutes?

No, I'm not saying.

Ronnie, in the beginning, in the beginning of the game, there was some dudes who play a lot.

It was just...

Well, that's probably a problem.

Nothing.

Nothing for him.

Yeah.

But that's the thing with the spurs, I do feel like they could have the hot goalie theory

going for them.

Okay.

When B is such a trump card, that I could see them despite the fact that they're way too

young to accomplish anything like this, and this history would say this is pretty much

unparalleled.

But if when B gets going, like who's to stop him, especially if the field is going to

be littered with so many bodies in terms of injuries, like we've been saying.

I think the answer is we've seen enough this season of good defenders and smart teams

kind of just like nudge the spurs out of their offensive flow a little bit.

Like the defense is going to be great.

Victor Webinyama is the best defensive player in the world.

He's always going to be changing the game on that side of things.

Their activity as a team, all of that.

Like I fully believe in.

For them, it's...

How much do you trust Deer and Fox and Steph Castle and Dylan Harper to make quick but

also evolving reads over the course of incredibly complicated playoff games where, yeah, you

go in with one scout with one game plan, but by the mid first quarter, we are ripping

it up and trying something completely different because the coverage is in what we expected.

How much do we trust those guys to make those kinds of decisions on the fly in those moments?

And I think over the course of the season, it's been kind of a mixed back.

Like they've shown up.

Like it's not really a question of effort or focus or intensity or anything like that.

It's just, as guards, are you the kinds of playmakers who can crack these sorts of puzzles?

And two of those guys are very, very young.

And the third one is more of a scoring first player who even then only has a certain

amount of playoff experience.

If the spurs do have a vulnerability to me, it's clearly there.

What do we think they're going to be dared to do?

We know like this is a downhill team.

Is it just as simple as they're going to be dared to make shots or they're going to

be dared to make certain reads because if you look at the center of what is going to

nudge the spurs to use your word, that's the thing that makes me the, you know, I have

like written down for every team that we're talking about here, like why they will, why

they won't.

One of the big why they won't things here is that, you know, we've seen that when teams

have time to kind of load up and we haven't seen when we in a seven game series or power

many games, it ends up being multiple in a row where they're loading up and trying to

stop him.

And my question to you guys is just like, what do you think?

What do you think Harper Castle Fox?

What are they going to be dared to do that maybe is shaky right now for the spurs?

I think it's the cross court stuff.

It's like leaving the weak side corner to double when being the post or clog up the lane

and forcing those guys, especially on the move to make a really difficult cross court pass.

And it's one thing if you're kind of expecting that to be there, but if you're smart on defense

and active and you kind of stunt and fake in terms of some of those rotations to keep,

you know, someone like Steph Castle on their toes, I think it gets really tricky in the heat

of the game.

And I think one of the kind of like ripple effects of this is we've seen in some of these

games where the spurs have had trouble kind of getting into their stuff that that brings

Victor Webinyama further and further away from the basket.

It's like if he's trying to get deep seals and getting double team to not able to get

the ball and the shot clock winds down, the next possession, he comes up and he's getting

it at three point line like he's trying to tap into ways to be engaged as a score.

But ultimately if he's getting pulled further and further from the basket because they aren't

able to get the ball where it needs to go on a possession to possession basis, that's

to the spurs detriment.

And that's where like all of this stuff just gets a little muddled, a little faster than

you would like, I think for San Antonio.

For me, it's a little bit more of the big boy shit where when you have a front line that's

going to be more physical and imposing like what is the counter for the spurs because

while they want to get down hill, if you wanted to match front court size like a team

like Detroit, for instance, probably could the nuggets if they were at full strength,

like is it to go more cornet, when they don't really have a move that's like almost minted

at this point.

And so you're kind of hoping that your offense could just shoot your way out of those situations

they just don't really have that in their bag consistently enough.

Maybe when the just like overcomes all of that, I think that really is the case for them

for and against where it's like he could just be the best player in the world and those

guys typically dictate playoff series in the way that is reductive, but ultimately ends

up being true.

But I don't know, when I started to do like more match up dependent things, I was like,

so is Durin just going to like play through Wembe's chest and just eviscerate him?

Like I don't know, I just, there are a lot more ifs for me with the spurs in some of

these other teams.

Yes.

I think the shooting is a huge part of that too, where you're right, it's like if the spurs

do get into a mode where they are dealing with that kind of physicality and need to stretch

the floor and want to rely on some of their actual perimeter scoring, there's like a lot

of good shooters on this team or like potentially good shooters on this team, but not a lot of

great ones.

And there's been some like encouraging signs.

If you really want to pull out the microscope, like castle shooting in particular, I think

it's been going to slowly ticking up from beyond the arc over the course of the season,

which is great for them.

But ultimately, there's still going to be a lot of catch and shoot opportunities for

him and for Harper in particular.

And even guys like Devon Vassel, who is a really good shooter in theory, but this year

has been kind of weirdly up and down in terms of actually converting those opportunities.

And so, yeah, you have, you know, champagne in the corner and you have Harrison Barnes,

who's going to be a little feast or famine on some of that stuff.

But I just wish they had like the one dead eye guy who felt a little more reliable.

It's just like a pure kick out option, a pure space for someone who's having a lot of

gravity pulling, you know, chunks of the defense away from Wimbee.

And they really don't have that.

They have a lot of good players and a lot of theoretically good shooters, but nothing

of that caliber, really.

Yeah, I mean, Harper and Castle are still distinctly in the prove it zone.

They're going to be because they don't have playoff experience.

But I think that's going to be one of the first places that teams go.

But then another thing that just to do some devil's advocate counter or the other way

here is like, if you look at the other teams, we're talking about how they don't have

the gumption for maybe to answer these questions.

But then I'm like, aside from OKC and Denver, maybe Minnesota, I'm like, who do we think

that who else you're playing?

Who's there?

That's what you can't talk about it in an abstract sense.

It's like they do have, it's all going to be about these matchups.

And I'm like, is Houston so decided that they have one playoff series that they

lost to the warriors and their current configuration?

And I don't like that didn't involve Katie.

I'm just like, who is it that we're sure is out there that that is above them in

that sense that is more proven?

Because really, it's only OKC and Denver, I would assume.

Do we trust Minnesota?

They've been so up and down.

I know we'll talk about that.

That's ultimately why I ended up with so much pie with Denver and Oklahoma City.

The rest are kind of just like marginal, like tiny slices, depending on which way you

want to turn to here.

So I had the spurs at 12 as my number three team.

Did you guys have the spurs at three?

I have them as the third best team in the West.

And I have them at 8% of the pie.

But I have a couple of Eastern conference teams in the mix and slightly ahead of them.

A couple.

Wow.

Kyle, where do you have the spurs?

Quickly.

I have a couple of East teams mingling with them in this range also.

But I have them at third tied, tied with another team at third.

They have 7% of the pie for me.

OK.

I just assume that if the spurs get to the finals, that they would beat the East team, because

they would have clicked into place in the way that we were all hoping for.

That's a great question.

Would they, the Episcence Spurs final rematch, rematch of both five?

What do we think?

I was going through all the matchups myself.

Well, first of all, are the pistons going to have the full complement of players?

Or will Isaiah Stewart have pivoted fully to MMA at that point?

Who's to say?

I was actually just as quickly as an aside, him only getting seven games is just like, on

the one hand, it's a complete divorce from what Stern would have done.

I feel like he would have gotten 27 games or something.

Probably.

Extreme.

And we would all have complained about that.

Sevens feels a little light on crime, seeing that he like full on bull rushed a guy and

like tried to get him into a headlock and just fucking hockey style slam him in the face.

Not saying like that Miles Bridget doesn't deserve him.

I was about to say maybe maybe a couple games got shaved off of that given the counter

part.

Yeah.

There's some of this fucking guy energy with that seriously.

Totally.

Totally.

But like seven and then it was like four and some other ones, I was like, let's fucking

go.

This is the answer to all the problems we're talking about tangling.

Let's just fight everybody.

So when the shock me was Jalen Durin, honestly, who again, instigated the entire thing by

pushing Musa Diabata in the face and you can't just mush someone like that.

You can't mush.

You cannot.

You can't be mush and Musa.

You can't be doing that.

He's not mushable ultimately.

And I get Durin didn't do the hold me back like hard charging that Musa was doing.

So fair enough as far as that goes.

But two games for Jalen Durin first effectively starting a brawl impressive.

Alming Musa's head, that's all he got, stew is terrifying, no, you imagine that guy

running at you.

Also Musa Diabata just like fire in his eyes.

I have never seen someone even in this sort of situation.

Just have to be held back repeatedly by like four separate guys while your teammates

try to talk you down and still have to be dragged into the tunnel like that guy was

out for fucking blood.

I know.

I've never seen him like that.

Obviously plays with some edge and some energy, but that's not really who Musa Diabata

usually is.

But Daly Durin certainly brought it out of him.

I'm not trying to promote fighting, you know, with my son.

I don't promote fighting at all, but we'll we can get into that more at another date.

But I think I love this.

I'm so excited about this because I just think I think that like they are in the age range

like in rel in, you know, in relation to each other where man this is going to be so

fucking interesting for a long time because Charlotte fans were riled up and Detroit fans

had like a had a right to sort of defensive attitude about it.

I just, man, this is going to be really fun just because the pistons have kind of climbed

to that accomplished spot early in the Hornets are, you know, rapidly ascending.

I love this.

I really do.

I'm not going to lie.

I did see that all of, you know, as is customary for NBA teams, they sell a lot of the

game worn jerseys, you know, for profit or charity or whatever.

I really thought about if we should put in a bid on Musa Diabate's game, war and fight

jersey.

But then I, but then I was led to believe maybe it wasn't actually the one he fought in,

but just the one from the first half.

So if anyone has the location of Musa Diabate's actual bloodied game, war and fight jersey,

I think it might need to be a group chat artifact of some kind.

We might need to really invest in that thing.

I think we could expense that.

I really do.

No, no, we'll get confirmation.

Wait, Rob is anti jerseys in most senses to the point where we really had to hurry and

in order to wear the Pacers jerseys for the live show that time, but you want a bloodied

on Musa Diabate jersey.

Well, you're not going to wear it.

Are you Rob?

I would wear it.

Yeah.

For the record, I'm not wearing this thing.

I was going to say you really jumped to the wearing part.

Come on.

But he's like bloody things, Justin.

I'm going to post your games on other people.

Yeah.

What are we talking about?

It's going to be framed and we're going to hang it in the ringer offices.

That's what's going to happen.

I don't know.

I think I think even under a frame like dried blood is going to creep.

It's real like dexter coated.

I don't know.

I don't know if a crime is committed, we'll surrender it to the police if need be.

Yeah.

Well, I have an actual question about this in regards to the pistons in our hierarchy

here.

On the one hand, I feel like this only really emphasizes their advantage, which is

like they really do have chemistry to the point where they're willing to go out months

in order to fight for their teammates.

On the other hand, it does kind of underline the immaturity a little bit that they could

be so distracted by wanting to punch someone else in the face that like they really don't

have eyes on the prize here.

Where do you guys kind of fall on this in terms of like the actual title race?

I mean, they certainly have their eyes on the prize.

They're just riled up and into it and give me the team that gives a shit over the ones

who are like jogging through the regular season any day of the week.

Are you kidding me?

Is it giving a shit, though, or is it more just like wanting to fight someone?

Like, I don't think it's actually has any questions on the actual basketball.

I mean, the pistons want to fight.

But I got some guys that are looking to I enjoyed the like camera cutaways of Ron

Hall and just arguing incessantly with someone like, he won't let anything go.

It's great.

A beef stew, obviously, we know it was interesting to see Durham to be the center of it.

But there's big like up the chimney vibes like from the Grizzlies.

Was it O3, I guess, when they were really or was it O2?

I guess it was O2 when they were kind of in the same mode similar trajectory points,

right?

With the pistons and the Grizzlies of that iteration.

I think so.

But the pistons just have so much more to offer from a basketball perspective.

Like, the Grizzlies were a good team.

It's certainly a good regular season team.

But there was always something where you were waiting for them to crack the half court

offense element of it.

Detroit has some of those same concerns.

I just like, what Cade gives you as a passer, what the physicality ultimately nets out to

for the pistons.

To me, it feels so much more significant than anywhere the Grizzlies ever got to.

I think it's a twofold question to the pair.

Did the pistons worry about anyone in the East?

Are they worried about anyone in the West?

And so in the East, I kind of see this more as a coin flip, no offense to the pistons

who might ultimately end up as the team with the best record in the NBA.

I just don't see much of a distinction between them as an actual basketball team and not

as like a full-scale rugby team trying to be true in the back alley sort of team between

them, the calves, and then have a little bit more of a tear with the nicks in the Celtics.

But like, I can see any of those teams coming out the East right now.

And I am pretty disappointed in the pistons as we talked about the trade deadline.

Only really getting harder in there who isn't really even playing, he's only played 27 minutes

at this point.

And so that deal for Ivy looks more like getting off money than it is adding a rotation

piece.

I can't stop myself from seeing what the calves lears are doing with hard and man.

They beat the nugget the other night.

Jared Allen seems reactivated is just like been a force even before hard and got in there.

And so I have the pistons at 8%, I have the calves in a kind of a separate tier with a

bunch of other teams at 6%.

Okay, I have the pistons at 12%.

And then I have the calves and I have the nicks at 8 and the calves at 6.

Okay.

So before you get to the spurs, right?

Yeah, so I also had the spurs at 8.

So basically my ranking is thunder, nuggets, then pistons, then nicks and spurs tied is

effectively like the next little sub tier there.

So you have the nicks even above the calves?

I do have an envelope of the calves.

I mean, the calves, the model with hard and is still so new.

I think we're just figuring out exactly what to do with it.

The early signs have been incredibly encouraging and we'll get to them.

But the nicks have also kind of saved their season in a lot of respects.

And I want to tilt my head to that.

Well, until last night, I mean, look, they're not without their faults, they're not without

some serious stumbles here and there.

But ultimately, I feel much better about the nicks today than if we had done another title

pie, you know, three weeks ago, like they just, they have corrected some of their problems.

Their defense looks significantly better over the stretch of time.

They just look like a more formidable basketball team, frankly, but they do not look like

the pistons.

I think Detroit has to have some kind of edge over New York in particular.

If you want to make the argument for Cleveland based on some of that mystery box factor,

you know, the fact that James Harden has stumbled in and immediately been like such a dynamic

playmaker, but not taken anything away from Donovan Mitchell, open things up for their

bigs and some of their supporting cast, but not taken them out of the flow of what they

do.

Like, I'm receptive to that argument, but we've seen so much of the nicks and we've

seen so much of the pistons and the pistons seem like pretty clearly and far and away

a significantly more stable basketball team.

Yeah.

I mean, I guess I'll rattle off mine here.

Like I said, I have seen Antonio at seven.

I have Detroit tied with them at seven and then Cleveland has stepped down at six.

Are we just rattling off the rest of our East teams here as that what we're doing?

Yeah, I think it's mine.

Mine's, mine's put, I don't have New York as high as you do.

Yeah, Detroit at seven, Cleveland at six, I may be overriding a little bit my optimism

about the hard thing and also just the back court depth and then if it's true, it's

back what's true.

It's timetable though.

I haven't checked on that in a little while.

People wondering all season, it's just, I don't think there's a clear answer on it.

Yeah.

And then I bossed in at five in New York at four.

I guess my trust in New York is still just sort of like rounding back into form.

I could see it getting back up into that five, five, six range.

I've just been a little pessimistic.

I mean, is Grand Theft Alvarado the thing that's sort of like driving the point home,

or is it just general synergy on the next part that say there's season in your opinion?

I think it's some synergy.

I think Alvarado helps, but to me that's more spelling what they were losing in Duce McBride

being out for a significant period of time and you can see his pressure defense kind

of amping them up in a positive way.

Weirdly enough, I think it's more other things happening in their rotation.

I think it's some of their level of defensive responsibility and kind of simplifying what

they're doing defensively in a way that I think has helped a lot of people involved,

especially Kat Mitchell Robinson, but also like Landry Shamit has been really good for

them lately and was just kind of like out of the rotation or maybe he was dealing with

some lingering injury has come back and given them real minutes.

There's just more parts of what they're doing that feel reliable and didn't and they don't

feel like they're at odds.

They don't feel like they're pulling each other apart.

Whereas that was kind of what led them down the rabbit hole into like a weird tailspin

and spiral that resulted in that player's only meeting or maybe it wasn't a player's

only meeting, depending on who you ask, they just felt like a team that was coming apart

of the seams.

Now they feel like one that's been stitched back together a little bit is it the most

like watertight, absolutely not, but they're a little more cohesive than they were.

I would have been more likely to agree with you had we not just witness what happened

last night, nine in one going into last night's game against the mighty Indiana Pacers playing

guys you'd never heard of before score and 20 points per game and then all of a sudden

they lose an overtime and that really just hit home all of the issues you have with

the next where they feel like they have all the parts lined up all the bench players finally

clicking into place.

Alvarado at the very least feels like emotional ballast like that I think is important for

I think is important for a team that seems to you outside of Brunson really be searching for some sort of north stars the type of thing

Where it's like if your star player isn't like that sort of emotional leader that sets the tone

I think people are kind of always really more in their own lane that really speaks me with this team

But the fact that towns just like hasn't had a pretty steady month the entire season really concerns me even in the midst of this game

It was one for six from three at five turnovers

And it's just like if towns isn't the town from last year even then we're getting into some really dicey situations

So I have them tiered out practically in the same line as the Celtics. I have the try to a Cleveland at six

New York at four and Boston at four if only because I just don't trust the next at this point

Yeah, I mean, I think it's totally reasonable to think that the West will win the day whoever makes it out will probably be the definitive best team

And will be a strong favor going into the finals

But just by like the probability of how that's all gonna shake out like one of these teams is gonna make the NBA finals

And by the time they get there who knows what's gonna happen with the health of the nuggets or shays availability

You know, it's like they're there's just like a miss again like just a roll of the dice that could result in all of a sudden

The pistons or the nicks or the calves whoever survives

Having a real chance and so that's where I think like

Individually, they don't have the most compelling cases if you want to stack up just like right now

Who would you take pistons or thunder think everyone would take the thunder for the most part

But the reality is of what it's gonna take to make it through the West alive and what it's gonna take to survive the East

I just don't think our very comparable things and so I

I think not unlike last year we may be in line for a more competitive final than we then we are expecting right now

Just by virtue of what like the differing paths that will take these teams to that point

Spur let's say let's say that the the thunder and the pistons get into a series together over under two games

How many games do you think that the pistons could get from Oklahoma City?

fully healthy

Everybody's healthy

Two I would say two at the bullet

Yeah, I guess technically so if the over under is two then

Under I

Would go under I mean the answer is could I think they could take three I

Didn't think that I didn't think the Pacers could take three from this is what this is what I'm saying like

I think that was expected to be like a five-game series and ended up a seven-gamer that required Tyrie's Haliburden having a

Like catastrophic injury and even then the Pacers were up at halftime in game seven like these these teams are not

Unvolvable even the thunder like we're giving the thunder a huge slice of this pie

But they're not an unbeatable team like they're gonna have to prove it all over again on slightly different terms

And they're gonna have to do it in ways that require them to

Outfox the nuggets and oh like outwork and figure out a way around Victor Webinyama

And it's gonna take a lot out of them to get there like that's just the reality of playing in the West these days

It's interesting because I feel like the Pacers pressed on the thunder's disadvantages in the way that the pistons probably don't I do think the

pistons have the physicality

In their favor and thus could they rough off the thunder in a way that they can make it more of a of a mud fight in a way that I don't think the thunder particularly want to

But I just don't see if you're not going to be able to out shoot the thunder and really kind of

Really just press on the fact that when they don't shoot well

It kind of like drops into disarray like where the pistons advantage offensively comes because that's all ultimately my biggest concern with them

It's just like they've been pretty middling overall and I don't really see a pathway for them to really hit a button and all of a sudden

Be better than that and apply us if anything

I'm worried about guys like Duncan Robinson and Kevin Herder getting played off the floor when the defense starts to ratchet up and so

On the flip side though to almost argue against myself

I feel like the thunder are going to ultimately be the type of team that wins four titles

But they always win in six and seven games because they do fuck around and the margin is like a little bit thinner than it should be a

For a team this dominant what is it fucking around though?

Like it's not that they're not playing up to the level of the game

They're just not the most consistent offense in the world prone to variance more than some other

Bulletproof contenders that we've seen in the past has certain that reached the

Historic level of net ratings and records that they had sure, but so I guess to answer the ultimate question

You ask how maybe it actually is three, but I still don't feel any more certain about the pistons even if it is three

Yeah, oh god Kyle

I was just gonna say in the broad sense

It's interesting that coming out of last year the thing that we talked a lot about was how it seemed like the

Pacers had pushed the buttons like you said in a way that

Stoked the growth that was gonna cause okay see to level up with some of their secondary tertiary guys to make them enter into this phase that you often see with

Dynasty's like if you saw with

You know like the the Lakers in the early, you know, 2010s or the Warriors or whatever in their run where you you go from like

Can we do it to you've leveled up you've answered the questions and now it's like deny us find a way to do

Deny us and I feel like the thunder because of injuries because of just you know chat

Chat has been good, but he hasn't quite really I think

Expanded totally in that way that we thought that he might and then now they have this unique kind of situation coming into these playoffs where it's like

You just kind of see this video video game like levels of boss is kind of thing where they're gonna have to answer the question with Wimby

I guess my overall point is just

It's interesting that in year two where we expect them to win. It's like

The set of challenges are sort of different like it doesn't feel as it doesn't feel as if they have like graduated to that like we are

Undeniable you better do something about it, right? I mean are you feeling the same way about it? No, I feel that way too

I think the single most

Like bankable disruptive force in the league right now is still okay see his defense like that is still the thing that I would bet on

Above anything else

But other than that

And like you know Shay is gonna give you pretty reliably between 28 and I don't know 70 points on a given night

I thought you were gonna say arm bars per game

Pistons arm bars per game is off the chair arm bars before you're kidding me. I kid okay

See don't don't be in me about that

But yeah, no, but I think

Other than that there's just a lot that has to be decided on a game by game basis and some of that is like just the reality of having a

Deeper team that you don't always know exactly who's gonna pop and so there's a little more like finding it in the flow as far as

Is this more of an AJ Mitchell game? Is this more of a JW game?

Is this the kind of game where I say a heart and shines push shot is gonna be like wildly important in terms of the flow of our offense

All those things are on the table. It's like it's great to have those options

But then you have to navigate them and I think the thunder is still at the phase in terms of their decision making on the floor

Offensively where it's not seamless like they're not a machine on offense

They're just a team that has a lot of stuff at their disposal and some days that happened to it and some days

It's like leaves you a little bit wanting but the floor is so high because of the defense and because of Shay that I just don't worry about them

But that's not to say that other teams can't crack the code or catch them on the wrong week and all of a sudden

Okay, he is in dire straits. Well, how much of the confidence going into the season was born from JW

Just stepping up in all the moments you would hope that he stepped up in sure now if he's gonna be playing with an arm behind his back

All of a sudden you're like hey chat. Let's like try to be a superstar

Let's like aspire to take 15 shots a game and actually step into that void if he had those moments

And he still has about two months in order to do that

I would feel much more confident in them

But if you're just playing one superstar and a bunch of role players high level as they might be like

That's more of a coin flip than you would like for a team that has historical indicators. It's fair

Also, there's the there's the fact the part of this that teams are teams and their players are pretty ruthless about

Not to go back and quote the Michael Jordan like never tell me that what was that thing where he played 101

He was like which need you got repair and he was like this one

He's like you shouldn't have told me that there's also the knowledge of last playoffs

People didn't know about Jayland's hand that wasn't that wasn't now they tell us after the fact and going into this playoffs

These playoffs people will know so I mean there's that

So that's a factor, but

Yeah, I was gonna say like did we kind of shortchanged Houston in terms of discussion about like there. Yeah

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All right, so we kind of diagnosed the east for the most part

But I have the West kind of intertwined in between some of these more middling percentage pies we have here

Which West team let's start here. Do you guys have after the spurs? I think for me, it's definitively the wolves

Definitively, okay. I think so. I just think there's

Well, let's let's say are the as the only other candidate the rockets are there any other teams we're considering here?

Those are the only two teams left that I have pie for yeah same

I know the wolves are in a really weird way right now in particular and

Look, they have some atrocious losses like really really awful stuff that you never want to see from a contending team

But we know who they are when they're right and that's a team that can survive and has survived multiple playoff rounds on consecutive occasions

Gone to back-to-back Western conference finals like you can't take that stuff away from them

And so there's something that's just like a little less hypothetical about them even with all of their weird losses and loaves the season

Even from the fact that they're still figuring out kind of what their best combinations of players are on a nightly basis and

Julius Randall in particular just had such like an odd season just

Absolutely indispensable to what they do and yet there are also some games were in the second half

I'm like what ever are you on like I don't entirely know

But they're one of the best teams in the league against top opponents even still even with everything going on

Like this is who they are they play up to quality competition

And I just really trust them to do that again

And so if I'm if I'm left to choose between the team that has done it and proven it and we know exactly what they're capable of

Versus a Houston offense that I just have less faith in than ever to execute in the half court

I'm gonna take the one that feels a little more known at this point

It's so tough to have any sort of confidence in a team where one of your best players is regularly calling you out for like not giving a shit

And now on the one hand that just feels like Rudy does this every two months or so

And you can almost hear the collective eye rolling happening as he's doing so

But he's not wrong because they fuck around and find out way too much for a team that has so much talent

I mean you just look at just the the resume and also the assemblage of talent like they have the both sides of the ball

Sort of balance that I think we're hoping for with some of these contenders that like the spurs don't have that offensively

Even the nuggets don't have it defensively they have the size and now with IO back in there

You could see the transition game just pop and they were already a top 10 transition team like watching him

Fucking in one game just like move the ball immediately down the court and just like in a blink of an eye like

He and he must be like up there with Fox and some of the fastest guys in the league at this point

And it just gives them the extra pop that you were hoping for that perhaps

Papers over some of this sort of internal stuff that they've been dealing with

Having said that like are we sure when this podcast comes up and they play I think the Blazers tonight

Are they not going to lose by 20 that because the Blazers are so formative

But just because like this happens with them

I just they're just untrustworthy

But also probably the most appealing team on the board

Yeah, it's a weird combination because they're

When they are sloppy and they're sloppy quite often

It's just a disaster scenario like you just see a team imploding in real time

As a result of even just like their inability to kind of get into their offense at some point everything I said about

Dylan Harper and Steph castle deer and Fox like not being able to make the reads

This is a team that just struggles to like can you make a like I pass to enter into your offense

Like can you do the most basic possible shit in order to be a competitive team and some days they really really just do not have it for some reason

Yeah, Randall can be a little bit of a catalyst in that direction

It's it's it's that's why I was laughing when you said um

You said that about him having a weird year. It's like he just has been this way

I've said this before but I mean he was that way when he was here at Kentucky

He was like he had this weird season and it was like the chemistry on the team was weird

You were like why can't they do anything and then they've got near the spring near the tournament

It was like oh this guy's like the best player in the country and they just locked into place and went on a run

That has been the experience with him year after year and I think the wolves just that year by the way

I don't fucking remember Justin okay

I don't replay that

I didn't have people over to my house and sit in silence after that game was over

Uh, I just have it on a concept move in my house

Yeah, right uh, but anyway, I damn it Justin um

No, I mean they have these wins that they sort of can drift with

I think in terms of like who's the catalyst in the culture because and it's so easy lucky

He's just kind of going with the flow

Rudy gets annoyed with things and he'll say something in the press

I thought Chris Finch's response to that was pretty funny

Pay money to hear whatever they said behind the scene

But it makes you wonder I don't like bands go through this sometimes where like bands that have been through the wars

And they've recorded some albums when and they like they're trying to like get creatively charged up

You you collaborate with somebody like I don't always think I like the Billy Preston with the Beatles thing

That was where when they broke up but like I'll come in and he is just an inherently like he doesn't know any other way

He plays hard he plays fast it makes you wonder if they'll kind of like

They're definitely an oh shit team where it's like they have to kind of see

The they have to kind of see the barricade up up up up ahead of them to be like all right

We need like steer the car here and like going in the right direction

I kind of think that they will but you're right like I they they're that it doesn't make any sense to put them below Houston

Because they have proven at time and time again

I don't want to deprive them of that because they have well

I think it hits on an interesting question

Which is if this is a weird year shouldn't like the weirdest team on the board be taken more seriously than usual

So the ordinance or who?

Oh do you have the hornets?

As much as I would have loved to give them some crumbs even even I couldn't do it

Not even a point two percent crumb maybe we'll make it a med bit you know just a fun crumb

One fun molecule

Yeah, it's like the little leftover piece of dough for the pie crust that you just like threw on the pan

It's like fuck it. I'll just eat this as like a little pie crust chip when it comes out of the oven

That's that's the one. It's a little seasoning on a crunch chip. Oh, yeah

Are you just throwing a nice you?

Are you throwing away scraps of dough? What are you doing? Yeah?

Why I just did like a Patrick Warburg. Oh, yeah, yeah

Well, first of all, I'm like I gotta say I am of I am of the persuasion where I'm like

Cookie cuttering that thing into some little shape for decor on top of the pie for sure

So nothing is going to waste over here

But also the scraps like that's perfectly good pie dough. What why are we throwing away pie dough?

Susie homemaker over here. I'm look guilty as charged. Yeah. If I have this guy's Instagram

He does I'm like, where are you? What's going on? Are you at know who are you at home? I don't like

Who's to say really do they know you had no boo yet? No, it's honestly not my vibe over there. Oh, not yet

I don't think he goes out to nice restaurants on Super Bowl Sunday. I think that tells you everything you need to know about him

Man, I actually respect taste. I love it. I actually don't really like that idea

It's a good festival was you're telling me do his time will spent watching this year Super Bowl

It was not but I did make nachos and nachos fucking rip no argument there. They do rip man

I'm a sucker for some nachos and loaded too. I'm a I'll destroy them. I have to be

Controversial takes on this pod nachos to be restrained

I'm just like even for a nice restaurant. They're like short rib nachos. We'll put chicken but grilled cheese

I'm just like let's do this rip nachos

Any kind of nachos. It's a problem

I need to make some short rib nachos next week. There we go

Um, all right, so we hit the wolves. We need to talk about the rockets or just everyone just feel the same

Flatness as I do. I think we need to talk about him a little bit just because

Look the defense is still great

They ultimately still have one of the best shot makers in the world and there's still like a good offensive rebounding team

It's just I

Wish I wish that everything didn't have to be so difficult and that they didn't the gut out so many like long drawn out possessions

In order to just like make ends meet

But it really feels like they do and we're over a long enough stretch now where since January 1st. They have the 23rd ranked offense in the NBA

It's just kind of becoming who they are like they are a team that struggles to get into their stuff that struggles to navigate

Any kind of pressure defensively and rely so much on durana changoon to bail them out

And then after that rely so much on getting any kind of second chance opportunities or dominating the possession battle in order to win

I think history tells us that's just like not good enough in the playoffs that that's not going to be

Like reliable and bankable enough in the way that you needed to be four times out of seven series after series after series

Yeah, I mean, it's just kind of basic like art of war stuff. They go look for your supply line first

That's what happens in the layoffs and if you I did you guys watch

Is that what you do in war you go after the supply lines?

You like a katana like general over here. I mean is what you do

Age of impact I didn't know you play that game. Are you not up on blockades just in what do you do it?

What the fuck are you talking about

When you you're trying to murder another like population you go after their supplies. Yeah, starve them out

I mean, and then they're more vulnerable. Yeah, guess who is more vulnerable the people with no food and no like I guess in those days gunpowder

You know, it's like you got to take away the supplies when the apocalypse inevitably goes down guys

Just this was our campaign race here. Justin is not apt and fit to lead come follow me and rob

And we'll lead you to victory. You're gonna starve with just and I'm just practicing peace and in love. Yeah always

Well, have fun with that as you get

I mean, did you guys watch the Hornets speaking the Hornets?

Did you guys watch the Hornets Rockets game?

I thought that that was a great indicator of what's going on.

Like, we're taxing our guy Katie too much.

I'm an all time Katie defender, but it's I mean, he's out there trying to make.

He's a tough shopmaker, but this is like the Olympics of tough shopmaking that he's been

asked to do on a consistent basis and I mean, the Hornets in particular are really giving

him a hard time.

But if they're not going to have that opportunity to win to sort of seizing that possession

battle that happens on the glass, which was a huge advantage for them, it's just like

they don't have, they don't have enough points of entry into their offense.

It's not multifaceted enough.

You're loading up on Katie.

There's nothing easy for him.

Read has been good, but he's in orbit of things like that.

He hasn't proven yet that he can be a source of offense and decision making in a way,

especially in a playoff series.

So I just feel like they're going to be overtaxed.

And I think too, I think that's important is we need to like recalibrate expectations.

Like we do that with the Lakers sometimes with the timelines and things, but the Rockets,

they lost Fred Van Blee.

They've been kind of like repurposing this year.

It's been a little bit of a pivot.

So I guess it shouldn't be surprising that we're here, but I just I have a hard time seeing

them go multiple rounds.

We're putting KD in the worst possible spot.

And we've seen this time of time again, where they need him to do too much, as opposed

to asking him to do too much win necessary.

And that is when he tends to just kind of stay in his lane, do what he can, but it doesn't

really filter out into everybody and galvanize them in a way that like as a collective allows

them to overcome sort of the disadvantages, which is why he was so great, I know, excuse

me, an Oklahoma City Angles state, but not in some of his more recent destinations.

I just losing atoms and Van Blee were the type of like connectors to make the style

of play that they wanted really shine.

And you've seen not only the team struggle, but Edoka in particular struggle to adapt

to what is clearly a new environment to where like he seems just so rigid in the way

he does things, which is great for a team when they don't have any sort of identity or

just any sort of perspective on how to win games, which is what the Rockets were when

he stepped into that job.

And now that like they kind of have the foundation for that, you almost want him to be a little

bit more exploratory.

And he feels a little bit too dug in in order to dig out like a really successful season

considering where they are.

He's not an exploratory coach.

It's just like not the way he devises offense.

It's not the way he runs a rotation.

It's like he's not in the business of giving chances to things.

It's more locking in on what the soul of a team isn't should be and like drilling it,

drilling it, drilling it, drilling it.

And that can be really successful to a point, but you also see the limitations of it.

Like this is a team that could use a lot of offensive ingenuity.

Like if you have non-traditional point guards and you're going to run so much of your

offense through someone like Shenguin, like you need to like diversify those entry points

because as Kyle said, like the players are not going to be the ones doing it.

The mechanism needs to do it.

And the Rockets don't have that sophisticated a half-court offense.

And so then you end up in this place where, as we've been saying, Kevin Durin is asked

to do a ton.

The shooting is like kind of there, but isn't always there because the spacing is so cluttered

that the passing isn't clean and the flow of the offense just goes off the rails so quickly.

And even for a team that has a lot of guys that we like, you look up and you're just like,

wow, this is really depending on Dorian Finney, Smith and Clint Capella to do a lot.

Like they are just now really critical members of this team with Adams and Van Vliet.

Like obviously Van Vliet's been out the whole way.

But the compounding effects of losing two guys who would have been critical to your rotation.

Now all of a sudden you're running a short rotation with those guys in critical roles.

And I just get a little more nervous by the day in terms of the Rockets.

I was really hoping they would make a move with the deadline.

They didn't at least want to add to the rotation in any meaningful way.

And so now we're left with exhausting the same formula that has just been like sputtering

for the last month plus.

And I don't see any reason I think that's going to change.

It's very, very tipsy in what you're describing with e-mail.

And then the other thing too though, man, is you're talking about some kind of scheme-driven

solution to what you're going to do.

At best in the playoffs, that is like a Scooby-Doo napsack mask, where in the playoffs they

pull it off.

They're like, yes, you're actually who we thought you were.

So I don't even know at the end of the day if the player's, the personnel is the thing

that needs to be there and I'm just not confident that it is.

But I'm not even asking for playoff success.

I'm just asking for us to be tricked.

Could we be sitting here in February thinking like, oh, man, look at all this elaborate

action that will definitely work in April and May.

They don't even have that.

Like there's really not even an argument that this team is going to be good enough offensively,

unless you just really want to take the most possible zoomed-out, crudest, full-season

metrics that still say Houston is a good to decent offense.

And I just think there's been so much recent evidence to the contrary that I don't know

how you would fully buy that.

Because we're talking tricks up our sleeve.

Let's talk about the Celtics just quickly here because they were the last team I had

with Pi.

We didn't talk about them in the East race, but they have the biggest growth potential

of any of these.

If you really want to buy low on a stock, they're really the one.

Tatum, as we're recording this Wednesday, early morning on the Pacific Coast, Tatum is

doing five on five drills in the G league, which is something which means like I would expect

them to be back after the all-star break, seems reasonable at this point.

Do you guys feel like you're waiting to see how he plays or I don't know, because part

of me like almost wants to just immediately put them with the top contenders, especially

in the East, because if he is like anything approximating what he was last year, like this

can get good pretty quickly and there are already third in the East right now.

Yeah, so I have them tied with the calves at 6%.

I like that.

You're right, those are kind of the two growth elements here.

I think the hard and trade is probably the single move at the deadline or in the lead

up to it that had the biggest impact on the actual title race.

That is a player who has dramatically changed that team's trajectory and style of play.

In the case of Jason Tatum coming back, there's just no way to know what he's going to

be capable of and what kind of role he's going to occupy for them.

Frankly, anyone who tells you they do know is lying to you, like Jason Tatum is coming

back from a huge major injury and long-term rehab and I love that he's getting five on

five time.

I love that we've been talking about him coming back.

There's just no way to know what he's going to be.

You have a Celtic team that I would say has probably more of a regular season profile

as constructed.

There's definitely a magic to what they've been doing, but it feels like the kind of magic

that leads to 82 game over performance and then when you get into the playoffs, you see

some of the flaws come to bear in terms of the rotation that they're trying to manage.

Jason Tatum theoretically fixes a lot of that stuff and just shores of the roster and

shores of the rotation.

It's such a significant way if everything clicks into place that I think they have to have

like a non-trivial percentage at the pie here.

The possibility is real and on the board and the opportunity in the east is so clearly

in front of them that you have to give him at least five percent and so I ticked

it up to six.

Dr. Robbie over here, just diagnosing what's going on with Tatum.

I'm trying.

I like it.

That's bold.

I think you're right.

I almost feel like I was a little too squeamish because I don't know what's going

on, but I think if you want to be ahead of the game, it's like a pretty good possibility

that they end up, I don't know, making the conference finals even.

Yeah.

There's a lot of tricky things to balance to because the thing that sort of pushed them

to this third place, I mean, like it or not, Anthony Simon's played a role in that and

then you remove him from it and you add, and you add, uh, you had Vousavitch.

And then I think a big thing that maybe is being overlooked here is if Tatum is going

to come back, I mean, a big part of Tatum's value is just his two-way, you know, acumen

in it.

I think is he going to be able to come back and be at that level if he, I'm just a little,

it is very wait and see for me.

I was going to ask you all about like, I still lean towards Cleveland over them and I keep

kind of asking myself, why?

Why do I keep believing in hard?

And I'm like, I'm, it's very Lucy, Lucy, Charlie football thing.

And I'm like, if Hardin came back and they got to the finals and then they somehow miraculously

I have a mid six percent, would that be the biggest legacy rehabilitation ever if Hardin

somehow orchestrated that?

Like because I'm trying to think of like guys in his bill always says calm alone, I'm just

trying to think of other stars, Chris Weber, these guys who are very, very prolific, nobody

get, you know, Hall of Famers, would that be, would that be the biggest, I don't think

it kind of comes to mind, but that's a different situation.

Yeah.

Just the shouldn't the bad factor of it though, I don't know if it would even, would

that be enough to sort of rectify all that?

I mean, the pieces would be written, the takes would be made, it would probably buy us

on this podcast.

What would you be saying?

Would you be writing them?

Well, maybe not writing them, but speaking them into existence on this podcast, that's

for sure.

I think everything with Hardin is so weird because obviously he has this outsized reputation

as a, as a playoff choker, right, as someone who does not show up in the biggest possible

games.

But you know what he does do is he gets you to the biggest possible games.

Like we talk about him as if he's just like our first round flame out every single time,

this stint with the clippers has not gone very successfully in part because of their

health.

But otherwise, most teens he's on, like at least get to the second round or sometimes

get to the conference finals and then or bump up against historically great competition,

like golden state and then all of a sudden can't, like can't quite get over the hump

of that.

He's flawed.

He clearly has like the individual games where you really need him to show up and he does

not.

Like that's inarguable.

But the overall playoff body of work is still pretty good and the calves are in need

of a team, a need of a player, frankly, who's going to get them a little bit deeper, a

little bit further.

And that's where you hope this energy with Donovan Mitchell pays off where Harden gets you

to the point and then Donovan Mitchell takes the moment.

And if that handoff can be successful and that's something where Mitchell isn't so taxed

by the process of getting there like he was with past calves teams, I think you can see

a vision of this formula really working for them.

I feel like it's the type of thing the longer we go away from his playing days will kind

of fade into obscurity.

If he does ultimately win one, like right now if he won one, it would be like he won one,

but he fucking choked like XYZ times and like we'll go through all of that.

But over time, it will flip to where it's like, oh, he did this, but ultimately he won

an MVP.

He kind of changed the game in certain ways and he won a title.

I do think is funny watching backs like the last dance of some of the documentary boom

that's been happening over the couple of years and how much people were fucking the worst

chokers in history until they won one and then ultimately became the games being as winners

like happened to Jordan, happened to Kobe, and obviously this is a completely different

situation because the body of work of choking is pretty prolific at this point with

Harden.

But I do think like at the very least it will be turned on his head if he won one and

this might be his best and perhaps his best last chance in order to do so because I find

myself in the same way that you're thinking Kyle where it's like the ball is popping

immediately.

And the history is there people seem activated in the ways that they haven't been mobile

isn't playing and maybe that like almost over complicate situation where right now it's

like hard and Alan pick and roll big pick and roll ball handler, everything kind of fits.

But at the same time, if mobile just kind of slots in and becomes a defensive destructor

guy that like he has been and that is the like the expectation for him, it kind of works

out because I do feel like this is their like magic bullet season right now because that

second neighbor and I believe they jumped over in order to make all these deals, things

are going to get more and more complicated next year.

I do wonder if the calves are going to pay the bill for this team going forward.

And so things are kind of aligning in a weird way for the calves in a way that I probably

wouldn't have expected even when they made that trade originally.

Now, I think for them to be at this point, given the way we are talking about them a

month or two ago, it's just been like they started to kind of get their season back together

on their own.

And then this move just catalyzes everything that they had working for them.

It's kind of dirt, dirt kind of went through it a little bit.

I mean, I don't know the same level.

Yeah, I'm just like the years and then he had that one run.

I'm just thinking it's not on the level of like a Mitch Richmond Lakers thing where it's

like you're just really trying to get one.

It's he would be instrumental in it.

I don't know.

I do kind of wonder if the defensive thing at the point, you know, the perimeter defensive

thing, if that ass is going to get whooped a little bit in the playoffs, we'll see.

We'll see.

We'll see.

So will that ask you whooped in the playoffs?

I mean, just going to be a full recurring segment for us.

I have that down as is my next question here.

Will that ask you whooped?

So I think that's all the pie for Kyle and I, Rob, do you want to go through your

morsels?

I did have I gave out one crumb.

Okay.

These are the teams that I took, pie away from in various increments.

The Lakers to me are off the board.

If LeBron James says this is not a championship team, I'm inclined to believe him.

That's awesome.

The Toronto Raptors, so I think have acclimated themselves as like a real deal playoff team,

but just don't have the high end potential that you really need to get in this conversation.

The heat and the magic I gave like crumbs of crumbs last time and both of them are just

not here.

I couldn't help myself, though, from giving a 1% crumb to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Oh, I think that's where we're going.

Yeah.

I did hover the cursor hovered for me.

It was a hovering cursor.

I didn't do it.

Classic hovering cursor situation.

I just think Joel's been too good, like too dominant, frankly, and Max, he's been too

consistently great to not at least think about them in this conversation.

And plus you do met a little further and that starting five without Paul George with Dominic

Barlow, and there's just been one of the best higher usage lineups in the NBA overall

this season.

If you're looking for a team that has a chance to overperform, if you're looking for

a team that like, yeah, the season long metrics say one thing, but this latest stretch with

Joel and Beat in full form, say another one entirely, this is the place you look.

This is a team that's changing and transforming right in front of our eyes.

And there are nights where they'll really convince you.

And I think if they were in the West, there just probably wouldn't be enough wiggle room

for them to make a real run.

But in the East, I'm open to the possibility that they could at least upset somebody.

And if that happens, why not?

I considered it for all the reasons that you're laying out.

Unfortunately, they just played here in Portland, a game where I built my week around that schedule.

And unfortunately, and B did not suit up, which was really cool.

Love the NBA.

I was watching the bottom fall out on the roster when he's not around and Barlow didn't

play as well.

It's bad.

It gets pretty dire pretty quickly.

It's real like save us Marjan Bochamp, like immediately, which is not a good place to

be in.

And so like if in B doesn't play a game in a playoff series, they're completely reliant

on him being healthy and being active and being just this good, which is to say over

the last 15, 20 games, he's been, I think the most prolific score in the entire league.

So this is kind of what they need from him to make the rest of the rotation work.

And then hopefully you get Paul George back from his suspension and are able to incorporate

him in a relatively seamless way.

But you're right.

The rest of the rotation is not great.

Like you, you're hanging a lot on a beat, you're hanging a lot on Maxi, you're hanging

a lot on VJ edge comb to like really pop in the moments you need him to pop.

And then other than that, even, even us like die hard trend and Watford defenders can't

sit here with a straight face and say that he is going to save the world on the nights

where a beat doesn't play.

It's just, it's just not feasible for them.

I hope that's true.

I wish beyond wish that that's true, but it doesn't seem to be based on the trend and

Watford newsletter that I run.

All right.

That's the pie.

Was it yummy for you guys?

Why are you doing that?

Why?

Yeah.

I need to take a shower now.

Why are you doing that?

All right.

That'll do it for today's episode.

We'll be back Monday morning.

So get your schedules ready.

Adjust your iPhone alerts to make sure that you're up at the crack of dawn to watch us on Netflix.

Monday morning.

Thank you to Isaiah Blakely.

Thank you to Ben Cruz.

Thank you to Jonathan Freys for filling in on production.

We'll talk to you next time.

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